Spy Talk: Early bye plan, do we dare sell Harry?

Hey Peeps,

I hope the long weekend was a cracker for you. Plenty of footy was played and plenty went on as always. Honestly the footy is as good as I can remember this year. The balance seems just right.

Some teams may well be tested though as the year goes on and injuries strike.

This isn’t unusual, we just haven’t seen many mismatches to start the year.

From a Supercoach viewpoint this will present opportunity as the year goes on, so be ready to strike and when the time comes we will be sure to talk about it.

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Penrith v Newcastle will be interesting this week. Can the boys from the Hunter withstand a Penrith side that have found peak attacking form?

Cleary and Hosking are two guys I’m very excited about within the SC Spy squad who have moved back to about 20k with a score of 1,280 after a tough early period of the season. Let’s keep building boys and up this momentum.

With that being said, I want to start the bye planning process. I am not going to go into the whole Origin period, but I am going to let you in on how I will initially check my team in preparation for Round 13 (which is the first major bye before Origin 1) noting that Rounds 13, 16 & 19 your top 13 scoring players count towards your total week score.

This means if you have 11 you will only be two players short of a max score. In saying this if your team has 15 then your worst two scorers will drop off which could be handy. But overloading may cost you on other bye weeks! Lots to consider.

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For now, let’s check my current side and who I may look to unload before Round 13.

This will give me a gauge of where I am at and how many trades I may need to make.

From here I will ideally get bye coverage players who play both Rounds 13 & 16 but that doesn’t mean I won’t bring in quality options who don’t have this ideal schedule.

It has to remain flexible, and you don’t want to get guys simply because they play great rounds. Quality is still critical!

Let’s get into my head and some strategic thinking.

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Current Team (after trades)

• Likely Round 13 players in bold
• A strike through the players who are likely to be trade outs over Origin or beforehand

Mahoney

Luke

Tapine

Welch

Stefano

Pele

Eli Katoa

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Hosking

Preston

Fifita

Hopgood

Keppie

Cleary

Hynes

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Schuster

I Katoa

Kiraz

Marzhew

Holmes

Turuva

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Khan Periera

Warbrick

Thompson

Turbo

Walsh

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Consensus

That’s 8 of 13 right now and another 7 trade outs gives me 14, Katoa being a direct swap for another round 13 player in Dylan Brown, I’m very happy with this a long way out.

Players of note I am targeting in the short term include Dylan Brown and Reuben Garrick.

I am also of a mind to potentially sell Harry Grant and keep Reed Mahoney at $170k less. This gives me extra bye coverage, no bye in round 9 (Harry) and importantly the extra money would allow a direct I Katoa to Dylan Brown trade in coming weeks.

Again, is this worth it? That’s where I am at. To help figure it out I will run some numbers below based on my best guess at what they will average.

Harry Grant below is based on an average of 75, but 55 for the post Origin games (possible limited minutes, he surely can’t play 80 all the time?), whilst Reed I will estimate to average 60.

I have also added a column where I keep Harry then sell him at Origin time, and one more column where I keep Reed and trade in Jeremy Marshall-King for Soni Luke in Round 13.

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Soooo – Who to sell this week for Soni Luke?

Harry Grant KEEP Harry & Soni Combo     1 TRADE total (This week)	Reed Mahoney KEEP Reed & Soni Combo 2 TRADES Total (Harry back post Origin)	Harry KEEP Then sell round 13 to Jeremy Marshall King Soni & JMK Origin Combo 3 TRADES Total (Harry back post Origin)	Reed KEEP Sell Soni for JMK Round 13 Reed & JMK Origin Combo 3 Trades (Harry back post Origin)
Round 7 – 75	Round 7 – 60	Round 7 – 75	Round 7 – 60
Round 8 – 75	Round 8 – 60	Round 8 – 75	Round 8 – 60
Round 9 – 0 (Soni Luke 45)	Round 9 – 60	Round 9 – 0 (Soni Luke 45)	Round 9 – 60
Round 10 – 75	Round 10 – 60	Round 10 – 75	Round 10 – 60
Round 11 – 75	Round 11 – 60	Round 11 – 75	Round 11 – 60
Round 12 – 75	Round 12 – 60	Round 12 – 75	Round 12 – 60
Round 13 – 0	Round 13 – 0	Round 13 – 60 (JMK)	Round 13 – 60 (JMK)
Round 14 – 55 (Sunday game helps)	Round 14 – 60	Round 14 – 60	Round 14 – 60
Round 15 – 75	Round 15 – 60	Round 15 – 60	Round 15 – 60
Round 16 – 45	Round 16 – 60 + 45	Round 16 – 45 (Soni)	Round 16 – 60 (Mahoney)
Round 17 – 55 (Saturday game)	Round 17 – 0 (Soni Luke 45)	Round 17 – 60	Round 17 – 60
Round 18 – 75	Round 18 – 60	Round 18 – 60	Round 18 – 60
Round 19 – 0	Round 19 – 60	Round 19 – 60	Round 19 – 120 (Both)
Round 20 – 55	Round 20 – 60	Round 20 – 60	Round 20 – 60
TOTAL POINTS = 780	TOTAL POINTS = 810 but 1 extra trade + $$	TOTAL POINTS = 885 but 2 extra trades	TOTAL POINTS = 900 but 2 extra trades + $$

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So this is interesting. Maybe Harry blasts past a 75 average and maybe Reed blasts past 60, we just don’t know, but at the end of the day things look quite close.

The impending return of Nelson Asofa-Solomona is a concern because Harry’s scores could well improve on the back of that. Hopefully it’s just two games pre-Origin.

If I do keep Reed and sell Harry, the extra $170k could be very crucial in building a better side as you will see in my trade plan below.

On the other hand, I could look to keep Harry and sell at Round 13 as per column 3 above. This makes sense also and negates the risk of a Harry mega score that he is capable of.

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Then we have column 4 which appears to be the winner which is keeping Reed and turning Soni Luke into JMK Round 13! This risks a lot of the cash that Soni Luke makes but he should make a decent amount health permitting.

Ultimately this is tricky.

Based on the numbers I think I like the idea of option 2 – that being keep Reed Mahoney with a view to pairing him with JMK for the Origin period.

The massive benefit of this is that I can fix my other problem area of 5/8 next week which is massive.

And have the funds to also get in Tapine this week and Garrick in the next couple. I think this extra money factor is the real winner here and it shows the flow on effect trades can have.

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Trade plans

This Week:

Harry Grant to Soni Luke

Doueihi to Joe Tapine (Via duals, thank you Keppie!)

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Next week:

Katoa – Dylan Brown (Approx $70k spare)

OR

Khan-Pereira to Garrick (Approx $180k spare)

(Dylan Brown the week after with a Warbrick downgrade if required)

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Ok, I like it!

Am I mad letting Harry go early? Maybe! But this is a calculated gamble to build a better squad heading into the bye rounds! Bye coverage – tick. Tapine – Tick Dylan Brown – Tick Garrick – Tick

All feedback and strategy review appreciated. I’m off to put all my spare money on Harry Grant anytime try-scorer.

Enjoy the footy troops.

Spy out!