Head-to-head focus: Buy, hold and sell

We take a look at the more relevant head-to-head specific trade options, rather than the usual overall perspective.

H2H Focus

What a bizarre situation we find ourselves not only in NRL, but in the world. Hopefully we can still watch the footy in our quarantine bubbles.

This week’s buy, hold and sell comes with a few SuperCoach warnings with the current situation.

There is a risk that the competition may be postponed at some stage. Therefore, many previously unavailable injured players may be able to recover earlier than expected from an NRL time frame should the schedule alter.

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This should be a factor in your SuperCoach decisions. Below are a few key injuries to consider:

  • Bateman’s return will impact the minutes and positions of Horsburgh,Tapine and Guler.
  • Moylan or Dugan will return in place of Kennedy.
  • Brandon Smith’s return will have an impact on Melbourne’s forward rotation.
  • Tevaga, Paasi and Curran could potentially impact JTB and Katoa.
  • Brimson’s return will see Sami move back to the wing
  • McInnes’ return will have a small impact on the Dragons forward rotation.

Another word of warning comes for SuperCoaches considering Warriors players.

The Warriors have chosen to remain in Australia to play Round 2, but may return home after this weekend.

If they return home, they will be quarantined and unable to return to Australia for an extensive period.

The NRL have also said if the Warriors return home they will continue the competition without them.

Whilst normally Eliesa Katoa would be recommended as a buy option, there is risk in bringing in any Warriors players.

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BUY

Esan Marsters (CTW) – $482,900

In the first game of the season, Marsters produced a score of 77 points, made up largely by an outstanding 45 base points.

He punched out 23 runs with 5 offloads in his first game for the Cowboys.

Marsters has been great at producing outstanding base stats for the last two years of SuperCoach, until he fell off a cliff at the end of last year. The downward trend in his normally reliable scores coincided with an ankle injury.

This looks like the old Marsters is back. The high amount of workload may have been a result of the Cowboys game plan to target Boyd, but he looked hungry for work and it looks like he will be offloading whether Paul Green likes it or not.

He is more expensive than other options, but has the potential to be a consistent keeper for the entire season into the finals.

As a keeper option, he does have a mixed bag for matchups in head-to-head finals playing Penrith, Sharks, Warriors and the Tigers from Round 22 to 25.

I will be getting him in this week or next week to give my team some reliable scores in the CTW position.

Jamayne Isaako (CTW/FLB) – $420,000    

Isaako produced an impressive 83 points with a try against the Cowboys. Not bad for a guy that was going to be on the bench until a few days before the game.

Isaako debuted for the Broncos in 2018 with a great year on the wing averaging 56PPG.

Last year he dropped a few balls in the early rounds and lost all of his confidence, looking like a completely different player from the previous year.

Coming into Round 1, I was concerned with how he would handle being a second choice fullback option for the Broncos.

His first game completely dispelled any doubts I had over his confidence. He was in everything and back to his explosive best.

He is at a discounted price and has some relatively good matchups coming up, playing the Rabbitohs, Titans, Panthers and Cowboys in the next 4 rounds.

If he turns into a keeper, he will be a good option for the first two games in head-to-head finals, playing the Titans and Newcastle. However, he does finish the season playing the Storm and the Roosters.

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Thomas Flegler (FRF/2RF) – $294,900       

Flegler scored 52 points in a lengthy 57 minutes against the Cowboys.

Flegler is a great downgrade option for those that have underperformers in the FRF or 2RF positions.

Tevita Pangai Jnr has been suspended for four matches and there is no sign of Alex Glenn, so his role will only increase.

Don’t be afraid of having too many Broncos forwards in your team, there is value there and they will get through the work.

HOLD

Jai Arrow (2RF) – $575,700 

Arrow produced a respectable 57 points in 53 minutes in the first round of the season.

Given Arrow’s seemingly healthy physique and the fact the Titans don’t need to manage his time anymore, I was expecting more minutes from the workhorse lock.

It has been revealed that Arrow was suffering from an illness which likely resulted in a lack of minutes.

What worries me is the fact the Titans looked a lot better in attack when Tyrone Peachey was in the middle and Arrow was off the field.

There is no reason why they both can’t be on the field at the same time and a score of 57 is nothing to be sneezed.

But given the many options at second-row at a much cheaper price, we may have to move him on if his minutes don’t increase.

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Isaah Yeo (2RF/CTW) – $404,800

Yeo produced 95 points in his first hit-out against the Roosters. He’s available in the CTW, but actually playing on the edge and lock he produced a mammoth 57 points in base in 80-minutes.

His rotation in the middle and edge on the weekend may have been a result of the abnormal circumstances where Viliame Kikau and Zane Tetevano left the field with injuries.

He has been named to start on the edge in Round 2 and looks set to keep his 80-minute role.

Getting one or two consistent scorers in the CTW is very important for me.

Having a couple of dependable CTWs you lock in each week and then a couple of high ceiling CTWs you can play on matchups goes a long way to getting consistent wins in head-to-head comps.

If Yeo plays 80-minutes this week, I will be bringing him in before Round 3 and before some significant price rises.

Lindsay Collins (FRF) – $201,000

Collins scored a respectable 44 points in 44-minutes for Round 1.

This might grab the eye of SuperCoaches as it is a massive jump from last year’s average of 20PPG and 19MPG.

Don’t be fooled by this trap. In the press conference following the game Robinson said he was forced to play Collins for the whole second half given the injuries to Matt Ikuvalu and Sitili Tupouniua.

Collins should be avoided as he will regress to similar minutes and scores from last year in the following rounds.

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SELL

Adam Doueihi (CTW/FLB) – $343,100        

Doueihi scored 27 points, including 17 in base, against the Dragons.

Doueihi has the left centre spot at the Tigers for the foreseeable future. Brooks, who plays the left side, is set to miss the next month of footy with injury.

Benji was also goal-kicking for the Tigers on the weekend and hitting them well.

Doueihi is one of the cheaper options at CTW, but will actually lose money if he keeps these scores. Surely even the Knights’ cheapy options will see more ball and points than Doueihi.

Victor Radley (HOK/2RF) – $481,300

Radley scored 25 points in 55-minutes on the weekend.

Radley is in a surprising number of teams to start the season. Perhaps people were impressed by his finish to last year when he averaged 61PPG.

Like most of his forwards, Robinson does muck around with Radley’s minutes.

Radley is also reliant on attacking stats, which is a big part of his game. But when he comes up against some tough opposition and with the Roosters traditionally slow start to the season, he could produce poor results.

The 2RF has a number of great options that are cheaper and going to be more consistent.

SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

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