Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 9 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies&#8217; odds to predict fantasy points. 



We’re not there yet with BBL; however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. 



The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. 



I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). 



There are many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.



Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. 



This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us.



Odds below are as at 15 January.



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Sydney Sixers ($1.48) home to Sydney Thunder</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>Top Batter Odds (Most runs)</td><td>Top Batter Implied %</td><td>Top Bowler Odds</td><td>Top Bowler Implied (Most wickets)</td><td>POTM Odds</td><td>POTM Implied %</td></tr><tr><td>SPD Smith</td><td>3.10</td><td>32.26%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>7.50</td><td>13.33%</td></tr><tr><td>MA Starc</td><td>26.00</td><td>3.85%</td><td>4.00</td><td>25.00%</td><td>8.00</td><td>12.50%</td></tr><tr><td>MB Azam</td><td>5.50</td><td>18.18%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9.00</td><td>11.11%</td></tr><tr><td>JR Philippe</td><td>4.50</td><td>22.22%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>10.00%</td></tr><tr><td>S Curran</td><td>8.50</td><td>11.76%</td><td>7.00</td><td>14.29%</td><td>10.00</td><td>10.00%</td></tr><tr><td>M Henriques</td><td>6.00</td><td>16.67%</td><td>15.00</td><td>6.67%</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.09%</td></tr><tr><td>B Dwarshuis</td><td>41.00</td><td>2.44%</td><td>4.33</td><td>23.09%</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.09%</td></tr><tr><td>SA Abbott</td><td>41.00</td><td>2.44%</td><td>4.33</td><td>23.09%</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.09%</td></tr><tr><td>J Edwards</td><td>17.00</td><td>5.88%</td><td>3.60</td><td>27.78%</td><td>13.00</td><td>7.69%</td></tr><tr><td>J Davies</td><td>26.00</td><td>3.85%</td><td>4.50</td><td>22.22%</td><td>17.00</td><td>5.88%</td></tr><tr><td>L Shaw</td><td>13.00</td><td>7.69%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23.00</td><td>4.35%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Weather permitting, Steve Smith could be the player who decides many head-to-head Grand Finals. 



He has been an SC cheat code in the past and is the favoured Sixer for both best batter and POTM.



It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Starc in the BBL, but his quality is undeniable. 



He comes in second favourite for POTM, which is saying something in a usually batter-dominant market.



Interestingly though, Jack Edwards is favoured over Starc for best Sixers’ bowler. 



Coming off a 3-wicket haul last start, and a brilliant all-round season, JED will be tough to leave out this week. 



Fellow all-rounder Sam Curran looks a strong buy candidate based on his odds across all categories. 



The likes of Dwarshuis and Davies are now a lot longer in batting odds, due to the Sixers&#8217; stacked batting lineup. 



I’m leaning towards Curran based on the likelihood of increased scoring opportunities with bat and ball. 



Babar Azam is a decent value POD option at just $93k. 



He’s the third favourite for both the Sixers in best batter and POTM markets. 



Good luck for the final round and to everyone in H2H Grand Finals!

Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 9 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

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