Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 8 BBL SuperCoach Decisions


<p>In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies odds to predict fantasy points. </p>



<p>We’re not there yet with BBL, however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. </p>



<p>The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin).&nbsp;</p>



<p>There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision making.</p>



<p>Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles.&nbsp;This round I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us.</p>



<p>Odds below are as at 11 January.</p>



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<p><strong><em>Melbourne Renegades ($1.70) away to Sydney Thunder</em></strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Best Batter Odds (Most runs)</strong></td><td><strong>Best Batter Implied %</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds (Most wickets)</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Implied %</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Implied %</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Muhammad Rizwan</td><td>4.33</td><td>23.1%</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>9.00</td><td>11.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Gurinder Sandhu</td><td>51.00</td><td>2.0%</td><td>3.50</td><td>28.6%</td><td>10.00</td><td>10.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Tim Seifert</td><td>4.00</td><td>25.0%</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>10.00</td><td>10.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Jason Behrendorff</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>4.00</td><td>25.0%</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Josh Brown</td><td>4.33</td><td>23.1%</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Brendan Doggett</td><td>126.00</td><td>0.8%</td><td>5.00</td><td>20.0%</td><td>12.00</td><td>8.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Will Sutherland</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.1%</td><td>5.50</td><td>18.2%</td><td>13.00</td><td>7.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Jake Fraser-McGurk</td><td>7.00</td><td>14.3%</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>13.00</td><td>7.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Hassan Khan</td><td>11.00</td><td>9.1%</td><td>6.50</td><td>15.4%</td><td>15.00</td><td>6.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Caleb Jewell</td><td>6.50</td><td>15.4%</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>19.00</td><td>5.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Callum Stow</td><td>126.00</td><td>0.8%</td><td>6.00</td><td>16.7%</td><td>19.00</td><td>5.3%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Gades’ keeper Rizwan tops the POTM odds, despite being equal second favourite for best batter. This suggests he’s a high ceiling play.&nbsp;</p>



<p>There is a bit to weigh up though. Rizwan currently has the gloves, so could grab a few catches/stumpings. However, he dropped a spot down the order in the last match, coming in at #4.</p>



<p>In contrast, opener Tim Seifert is favoured as top batter, although slightly less likely for POTM. It’s a close call between Seifert and Rizwan, and I’d prefer not to run both. I’m leaning towards Seifert based on the batting order.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Gurinder Sandhu is the top ranked Gades’ bowler for both POTM and most wickets. He’s been in fine form this season, although struggled against the Stars, as did most of the bowling attack. </p>



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<p>Sandhu will be significantly more expensive than the likes of Behrendorff and Doggett. Behrendorff is the second favourite for best bowler and equal third favourite for POTM.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Given this, his price and career record, Behrendorff is my preferred Gades bowler this round. It’s not foolproof though, as he regularly hasn’t bowled his full allotment this season.</p>



<p>Allrounders Sutherland and Khan should be in most BBL teams this round. Their odds are solid across batting, bowling and POTM categories.</p>



<p>Josh Brown has found form recently and represents a decent POD option, albeit a risky one as a bat only. He sits equal second favourite for most runs and equal third for POTM.</p>


Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 8 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

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