BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 5


<p>In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies&#8217; odds to predict fantasy points. </p>



<p>We’re not there yet with BBL, however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin).&nbsp;</p>



<p>There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). </p>



<p>However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.</p>



<p>Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Odds below are as at 1 January.</p>



<p><strong>Melbourne Stars ($1.75) away to&nbsp; Brisbane Heat</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>GJ Maxwell</td><td>4.75</td><td>15.4%</td><td>7.00</td><td>5.7%</td><td>7.00</td><td>4.7%</td></tr><tr><td>H Rauf</td><td>201.00</td><td>0.4%</td><td>3.50</td><td>11.4%</td><td>8.00</td><td>4.1%</td></tr><tr><td>TK Curran</td><td>41.00</td><td>1.8%</td><td>4.00</td><td>9.9%</td><td>8.50</td><td>3.9%</td></tr><tr><td>J Clarke</td><td>4.50</td><td>16.2%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9.00</td><td>3.7%</td></tr><tr><td>SB Harper</td><td>4.50</td><td>16.2%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>C Kellaway</td><td>4.50</td><td>16.2%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>MP Stoinis</td><td>5.50</td><td>13.3%</td><td>7.00</td><td>5.7%</td><td>10.00</td><td>3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>H Cartwright</td><td>15.00</td><td>4.9%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>3.3%</td></tr><tr><td>MJ Swepson</td><td>201.00</td><td>0.4%</td><td>5.50</td><td>7.2%</td><td>11.00</td><td>3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>TF Rogers</td><td>12.00</td><td>6.1%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>19.00</td><td>1.7%</td></tr><tr><td>PM Siddle</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.3%</td><td>4.33</td><td>9.2%</td><td>19.00</td><td>1.7%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Maxy sits atop POTM odds as per usual. </p>



<p>The form of Harper, Clarke, and Kellaway, though, sees him fourth on the top batter odds. </p>



<p>He’s $7 for top bowler, but I think that’s more reflective of his ceiling than his floor, as he’s only been bowling the odd over or two of late. </p>



<p>Given this, I’m looking at fading him this round.&nbsp;</p>



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<p>Rauf is quite high on the POTM list for a bowler. </p>



<p>He’s a scary non-own vs the Heat, whose batting lineup struggled last start.</p>



<p>Similar could be said of Curran, who has the added advantage of being available in a bat slot. </p>



<p>With a 33 breakeven, he’s perhaps the most important to own from the Stars contingent.  </p>



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<p>Speaking of breakevens, Sam Harper’s is currently 0.</p>



<p>His best batter and POTM odds support his form. </p>



<p>To go with his form with the bat, Harper’s averaging 15 points in catches this season. </p>



<p>I’m leaning towards bringing him in.</p>



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<p>Stoinis sits surprisingly low in all odds categories, despite averaging 93 SC points this season. </p>



<p>He’s still a strong VC choice, but perhaps not a clear-cut one.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Siddle and Swepson are other players of note. </p>



<p>Both represent good options, supported by their odds. </p>



<p>Given the strength of the Stars this season, I can see merit in loading up on their bowling attack. </p>



<p>I’d be prioritising Rauf and Curran first though.&nbsp;</p>


BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 5

Discussion (0)

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