BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 4


<p>In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies&#8217; odds to predict fantasy points. </p>



<p>We’re not there yet with BBL; however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. </p>



<p>The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. </p>



<p>I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). </p>



<p>There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). </p>



<p>However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.</p>



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<p>Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. </p>



<p>This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us. </p>



<p>Odds below are as at 29 December.</p>



<p><strong>Perth Scorchers ($1.62, away to Thunder)</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds (Runs)</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds (Wickets)</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>FH Allen</td><td>5.00</td><td>11.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>7.50</td><td>4.7%</td></tr><tr><td>M Marsh</td><td>4.00</td><td>14.3%</td><td>6.00</td><td>6.8%</td><td>8.00</td><td>4.4%</td></tr><tr><td>C Connolly</td><td>4.00</td><td>14.3%</td><td>9.00</td><td>4.5%</td><td>8.50</td><td>4.1%</td></tr><tr><td>JP Inglis</td><td>5.00</td><td>11.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>8.50</td><td>4.1%</td></tr><tr><td>AM Hardie</td><td>6.50</td><td>8.8%</td><td>5.50</td><td>7.4%</td><td>9.00</td><td>3.9%</td></tr><tr><td>AC Agar</td><td>34.00</td><td>1.7%</td><td>5.50</td><td>7.4%</td><td>10.00</td><td>3.5%</td></tr><tr><td>LJ Evans</td><td>8.50</td><td>6.7%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>13.00</td><td>2.7%</td></tr><tr><td>AJ Turner</td><td>7.50</td><td>7.6%</td><td>9.00</td><td>4.5%</td><td>19.00</td><td>1.9%</td></tr><tr><td>B Couch</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.2%</td><td>4.50</td><td>9.1%</td><td>19.00</td><td>1.9%</td></tr><tr><td>M Beardman</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.2%</td><td>6.00</td><td>6.8%</td><td>19.00</td><td>1.9%</td></tr><tr><td>JS Paris</td><td>67.00</td><td>0.9%</td><td>6.50</td><td>6.3%</td><td>21.00</td><td>1.7%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>The POTM odds indicate that Finn Allen has the highest ceiling of the Scorchers’ batters. </p>



<p>It’s hard to go past him in the wicketkeeper slot this round. </p>



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<p>Interestingly, Mitch Marsh is still shorter odds than Allen for top batter, despite recent form. </p>



<p>I do think Marsh goes off at some stage. </p>



<p>He’s hard to pass up at a heavily discounted price. </p>



<p>Ignore his top bowler odds, as he still appears unlikely to bowl. </p>



<p>Supercoach form suggests that Connolly is a must-have this round. </p>



<p>I’ll likely be bringing him in and captaining him. </p>



<p>However, if only looking at the betting odds, a case could be made to fade, given he’s a long way down in the top bowler odds.</p>



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<p>Conversely, Hardie’s bowling odds are very good to go with a player of his batting capabilities. </p>



<p>This makes him hard to go without.</p>



<p>In terms of bowlers, the odds favour Agar (top-ranked bowler for POTM) or Couch (top-ranked for best bowler/most wickets). </p>



<p>I’d lean towards Couch at a significant discount compared to Agar.</p>



<p><strong>BBL Winner market</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Comp Odds (To Win)</strong></td><td><strong>Games Played</strong></td><td><strong>Current Wins</strong></td><td><strong>Games Left</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Win % From Here</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne Stars&nbsp;</td><td>3.50</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>6</td><td>70.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Hobart Hurricanes&nbsp;</td><td>3.50</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>6</td><td>70.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Perth Scorchers&nbsp;</td><td>6.00</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>57.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Brisbane Heat&nbsp;</td><td>9.00</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>6</td><td>47.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne Renegades&nbsp;</td><td>11.00</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>8</td><td>42.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney Sixers&nbsp;</td><td>11.00</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>42.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide Strikers&nbsp;</td><td>13.00</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>7</td><td>38.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney Thunder&nbsp;</td><td>21.00</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>6</td><td>29.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>I’ve utilised ChatGPT to calculate the above table based on each team&#8217;s odds to win the BBL. </p>



<p>In general, I favour players from teams with a higher predicted win %.</p>



<a id='X9WSqie0TQhA3uZ2ILMpHQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2253775848' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'X9WSqie0TQhA3uZ2ILMpHQ',sig:'RdypUo-HZF-gtgutkVDCkSkMuvj0knwp9cao4KJuLnY=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2253775848',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>The Stars have been the big movers in comp odds, thanks to a 4 from 4 start to the season. </p>



<p>Hold them through the bye if you can.</p>



<p>The Hurricanes are equal favourites to win the BBL, which also increases the case for holding a few of their crew. </p>



<p>They’re followed by the Scorchers, who, as fortune would have it, play the double this round. </p>



<p>Being relatively high on predicted wins also supports the case for holding a few of the Perth contingent. </p>



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<p>The Heat sit in fourth on predicted wins and have already played their double. </p>



<p>The form of Bartlett and Wildermuth makes them both decent holds, but not essential by any means. </p>



<p>The Renegades and Sixers sit in the next rung down, which is somewhat concerning, given we’ll need them for doubles later in the season, which coincide with head-to-head finals. </p>



<p>Furthermore, the Sixers have two double-rounds remaining, so ideally, they’d be a team to target. </p>



<p>The odds suggest we need to be somewhat cautious with them, though. </p>



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<p>The Strikers also have a double remaining but are second last in the betting odds. </p>



<p>Matt Short and Jamie Overton are obvious picks for their double. </p>



<p>Outside of those two, based on the odds, perhaps it’s best to only target one or two more. </p>



<p>The Thunder sit last in the odds and have played their double. </p>



<p>With Shadab Khan leaving and Dan Sams not in the best form, there’s a case to be made for going without them entirely from here. </p>


BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 4

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