BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 3


<p>In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies&#8217; odds to predict fantasy points. </p>



<p>We’re not there yet with BBL, however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. </p>



<p>The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. </p>



<p>I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). </p>



<p>There are many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). </p>



<p>However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.</p>



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<p>Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Odds below are as of 24 December.</p>



<p><strong>Melbourne Stars ($1.89 vs Sydney Sixers at the SCG)</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimates Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>GJ Maxwell</td><td>4.00</td><td>17.3%</td><td>7.00</td><td>6.9%</td><td>7.50</td><td>11.1%</td></tr><tr><td>MP Stoinis</td><td>6.00</td><td>11.5%</td><td>6.50</td><td>7.5%</td><td>8.00</td><td>10.4%</td></tr><tr><td>J Clarke</td><td>4.33</td><td>16.0%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>8.3%</td></tr><tr><td>C Kellaway</td><td>4.50</td><td>15.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>12.00</td><td>6.9%</td></tr><tr><td>SB Harper</td><td>5.50</td><td>12.6%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>12.00</td><td>6.9%</td></tr><tr><td>TF Rogers</td><td>6.50</td><td>10.6%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>12.00</td><td>6.9%</td></tr><tr><td>TK Curran</td><td>29.00</td><td>2.4%</td><td>4.50</td><td>10.8%</td><td>12.00</td><td>6.9%</td></tr><tr><td>H Rauf</td><td>151.00</td><td>0.5%</td><td>3.75</td><td>12.9%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>MJ Swepson</td><td>151.00</td><td>0.5%</td><td>4.75</td><td>10.2%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>H Cartwright</td><td>11.00</td><td>6.3%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>17.00</td><td>4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>PM Siddle</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.3%</td><td>4.33</td><td>11.2%</td><td>19.00</td><td>4.4%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Maxwell is the top option for both Player of the Match and best batter. </p>



<p>Given his game-breaking abilities, the POTM odds aren’t that surprising. </p>



<p>Maxwell’s breakeven (188 across two games) is scary. </p>



<p>Even so, he could be a round-defining play given his immense ceiling and relatively low ownership (32% for the top 5% of coaches, at the time of writing). </p>



<p>It’s also encouraging to see him regularly rolling the arm over.</p>



<a id='wnIe8IqnS5FmVkwoQ9o5qQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2253237668' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'wnIe8IqnS5FmVkwoQ9o5qQ',sig:'ue4HYuY5IGemW086og9XbaHaai2B-ObmrQJKGVvgydw=',w:'594px',h:'427px',items:'2253237668',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Stoinis batted lower than him last outing, which is reflected in the best batter odds. </p>



<p>He has had a more prominent role with the ball, though, reflected by the best bowler odds. </p>



<p>Stoin is also the second-favoured Stars option for POTM. </p>



<p>I’m leaning towards rolling out both him and Maxy this round.</p>



<p>Clarke, Kellaway, and even Harper look ok punts as bat only. </p>



<p>Perhaps have a look at an emergency loop if you can. </p>



<a id='T7_4rxwHReJrYm1PgS3PfQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2253233600' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'T7_4rxwHReJrYm1PgS3PfQ',sig:'Qhm1YnuVGz--S-tN3x0k4J7GwMvnH57lWYbprKzRgCk=',w:'594px',h:'395px',items:'2253233600',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Curran looks in decent form with the ball this season, although the odds prefer both Rauf and Siddle to him. </p>



<p>Batting at 8, I’d prefer the other all-rounders in Maxy and Stoinis if you can afford them. </p>



<p>The odds look bang on in terms of SC priorities for the Stars’ bowl-only players. </p>



<p>I’d look at Rauf, Siddle, and Swepson in that order. </p>



<p>Both Rauf and Siddle look great on the eye test.</p>



<p><strong>Hobart Hurricanes ($1.93 vs Perth Scorchers at Optus Stadium)</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimates Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>TH David</td><td>7.50</td><td>9.1%</td><td>19.00</td><td>2.5%</td><td>8.00</td><td>10.4%</td></tr><tr><td>MJ Owen</td><td>4.00</td><td>17.0%</td><td>12.00</td><td>4.0%</td><td>9.00</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>BR McDermott</td><td>4.00</td><td>17.0%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>8.4%</td></tr><tr><td>CJ Jordan</td><td>29.00</td><td>2.3%</td><td>5.00</td><td>9.6%</td><td>11.00</td><td>7.6%</td></tr><tr><td>N Ellis</td><td>41.00</td><td>1.7%</td><td>3.40</td><td>14.1%</td><td>11.00</td><td>7.6%</td></tr><tr><td>N Chaudhary</td><td>4.00</td><td>17.0%</td><td>11.00</td><td>4.4%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>R Ahmed</td><td>15.00</td><td>4.5%</td><td>6.00</td><td>8.0%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>R Hossain</td><td>51.00</td><td>1.3%</td><td>4.75</td><td>10.1%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>RP Meredith</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.3%</td><td>4.75</td><td>10.1%</td><td>13.00</td><td>6.4%</td></tr><tr><td>MS Wade</td><td>15.00</td><td>4.5%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>17.00</td><td>4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>T Ward</td><td>6.50</td><td>10.5%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>21.00</td><td>4.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>David tends to always be quite high on POTM due to his match-winning / finishing ability. </p>



<p>I wouldn’t read much into it for Supercoach, though.</p>



<a id='pLa7K5GlTc1N6AUV9b1ZQQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2252939913' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'pLa7K5GlTc1N6AUV9b1ZQQ',sig:'A2oKCthqowwZjp4dxNwvyw5On86G8FOnr7j7IUGRo7Q=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2252939913',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Mitch Owen’s odds in the bowler and POTM categories are notably higher than the Stars’ all-rounders. </p>



<p>He is a fade candidate for mine.</p>



<p>Interestingly, Ellis is quite short for the best bowler, and Chris Jordan is still below the likes of Meredith and Hossain. </p>



<p>With his recent form, CJ is quite short for POTM, though. </p>



<p>He’ll rightfully be a popular captaincy option this round. </p>



<p><strong>Perth Scorchers ($1.89 vs Hobart Hurricanes at Optus Stadium)</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimates Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>M Marsh</td><td>4.00</td><td>20.2%</td><td>6.00</td><td>12.7%</td><td>8.00</td><td>14.6%</td></tr><tr><td>C Connolly</td><td>4.00</td><td>20.2%</td><td>9.00</td><td>8.5%</td><td>8.00</td><td>14.6%</td></tr><tr><td>FH Allen</td><td>5.00</td><td>16.2%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>8.50</td><td>13.7%</td></tr><tr><td>AM Hardie</td><td>6.50</td><td>12.5%</td><td>6.00</td><td>12.7%</td><td>10.00</td><td>11.7%</td></tr><tr><td>LJ Evans</td><td>8.50</td><td>9.5%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>11.00</td><td>10.6%</td></tr><tr><td>AC Agar</td><td>34.00</td><td>2.4%</td><td>5.50</td><td>13.9%</td><td>15.00</td><td>7.8%</td></tr><tr><td>AJ Turner</td><td>7.50</td><td>10.8%</td><td>9.00</td><td>8.5%</td><td>17.00</td><td>6.9%</td></tr><tr><td>ML Kelly</td><td>67.00</td><td>1.2%</td><td>4.75</td><td>16.0%</td><td>21.00</td><td>5.6%</td></tr><tr><td>NR Hobson</td><td>15.00</td><td>5.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>23.00</td><td>5.1%</td></tr><tr><td>JS Paris</td><td>67.00</td><td>1.2%</td><td>6.50</td><td>11.7%</td><td>23.00</td><td>5.1%</td></tr><tr><td>B Couch</td><td>251.00</td><td>0.3%</td><td>4.75</td><td>16.0%</td><td>26.00</td><td>4.5%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Mitch Marsh is just $90k and probably goes large at some stage, which is supported by his best batter and POTM odds. </p>



<p>His best bowler odds are intriguing. </p>



<p>However, I wouldn’t read too much into them, given he hasn’t bowled in any T20 or First Class matches of late. </p>



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<p>Cooper Connolly looms as the best captain option for the Scorchers’ double in round four. </p>



<p>His long best bowler odds are probably a reflection of the round 3 game being at the pace-friendly Optus Stadium. </p>



<p>Both the Scorchers&#8217; round four games are away, which could suit him.</p>



<p>Finn Allen looks an important buy for the round four double given his ceiling, as supported by his best batter and POTM odds. </p>



<p>Stashing him this week makes sense if you can do it.</p>



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<p>Hardie looks essential for the double with his current role. </p>



<p>His best batter and bowler odds support this.</p>



<p>Matt Kelly looks the most appealing of the Scorchers’ bowlers. </p>



<p>He’s equal with Couch for best bowler odds, and shorter for POTM. </p>



<p>This matches the SuperCoach pedigree he’s shown in the past.</p>



<p>Thanks for reading. </p>



<p>This is the first time I’ve done an article of this type. </p>



<p>Feedback very much welcome!</p>


BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 3

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