EPL Supercoach | Elite vs Exposed, the Fixture-Adjusted Truth

Nine weeks in, raw stats are lying to you.



A team facing Burnley, West Ham, and Sunderland will look defensively solid. 



Throw them against City and Liverpool?



Exposed. I&#8217;ve benchmarked every team&#8217;s npxG (expected goals) against opposition quality to separate overachievers from pretenders.&nbsp;



<ul>
<li>npxG measures attacking threat &#8211; high is good&nbsp;</li>



<li>npxG Allowed measures defensive vulnerability &#8211; low is good&nbsp;</li>



<li>The +/- column shows who&#8217;s genuinely elite versus who&#8217;s riding an easy run</li>



<li>Fixtures shows the average npxG of their next six opponents &#8211; tells you if the run gets easier or harder</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Attackers</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="415" height="514" src="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2402993" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4.png 415w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-4-242x300.png 242w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 415px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Real Deal</h3>



Crystal Palace



That +5.0 difference shows elite chance creation. 



Palace have only scored 12 goals so far, but when they convert properly &#8211; like the 3 against Bournemouth &#8211; you see what&#8217;s possible. 



Next six fixtures average 12.2 npxG Allowed. 



When the conversion clicks, absolute scenes incoming.



You need Palace assets desperately.



<a id='XF4DRR9aSLJTV5V8srbs2Q' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2244045330' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'XF4DRR9aSLJTV5V8srbs2Q',sig:'WSLwlXIZMiL1Td5W5cQ7NFf_Ot1kw4tGPPg4NHXt6tI=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2244045330',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Jean-Philippe Mateta (£11.04m) &#8211; If you own him, you&#8217;re laughing to the bank while the rest of us find cash out of thin air. 



Central striker in a flying attack with dream fixtures.



Ismaïla Sarr (£8.97m) &#8211; More affordable, scores more in base stats, just less central. 



Was scoring for fun before injury, then what he did to Liverpool in the cup. 



Buying him today.



Daniel Muñoz (£12.16m) &#8211; Expensive but those attacking stats plus defensive work? 



Underpriced for these fixtures. 



Legit captain shout.



Manchester United



We Supercoach managers don&#8217;t care about United&#8217;s results. 



We want points for our attackers (sorry United fans).



<a id='5xDRlfaDRaBxXO6oRLuvKQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2243045693' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'5xDRlfaDRaBxXO6oRLuvKQ',sig:'3YpPVhAQqZh-fFyzs0GAq6Yt4B-1eZCEHRMoWpAMlWI=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2243045693',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Bryan Mbeumo (£10.75m) &#8211; Coming off 25 points last week and looking like prime Mo Salah. 



The play right now.



Bruno Fernandes (£9.47m) &#8211; Base stats, penalties, attacking returns everywhere. 



Scored 11 last week with no goals or assists. 



That&#8217;s his floor. Imagine what&#8217;s coming.



Arsenal



Prioritise Arsenal defence over attack, but Eberechi Eze (£8.78m) is still cheap with a low breakeven after his 18-pointer. 



Don&#8217;t sleep on value when it&#8217;s staring at you.



<a id='oWByE9p7TO90AckV9tB3LQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2243463549' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'oWByE9p7TO90AckV9tB3LQ',sig:'R7Y1IejcYa_rKLvlbZTWy1nb3UG4ufe8m-UCAZhFrQI=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2243463549',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Pretenders</h3>



The Bottom Feeders



West Ham (-3.6), Burnley (-3.9), Sunderland (-4.8) &#8211; all cooked. 



Not thinking about any attackers from these teams.



Aston Villa



Would&#8217;ve shocked you in GW1.



Easy fixtures, massive underperformance (-3.0), now facing a brutal run (9.6 npxG Allowed). 



Avoid completely.



Tottenham



Had easy fixtures, still underperformed (-1.3). Now facing harder opposition (10.0 npxG Allowed). 



Not the elite attack you think it is.



Manchester City



Not pretenders &#8211; one of the best attacks going around (+4.4). 



But fixtures get significantly harder (9.5 npxG Allowed &#8211; toughest upcoming run).



<a id='BOHb7rUsRlt3PXn8Z3YgCA' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2243479442' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'BOHb7rUsRlt3PXn8Z3YgCA',sig:'VsNFtp0PsNlHONB8Q2R2yuhWVPjg88FvOHCPrDMI1LQ=',w:'594px',h:'423px',items:'2243479442',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Not trading Erling Haaland (£16.39m), but he&#8217;s not auto-captain for the next six weeks. 



Still elite, just needs more thought week-to-week. 



Ditch Tijjani Reijnders (£6.63m) though &#8211; minutes have dried up. 



Glad I jumped off earlier.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Defenders</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="385" height="510" src="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2402994" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5.png 385w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-5-226x300.png 226w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 385px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Real Deal</h3>



Arsenal



Arsenal. 



Arsenal. 



Arsenal.



They&#8217;re my team yet I only own David Raya (£8.29m) and William Saliba (£7.09m, injured). 



This is why I can&#8217;t crack the top 1k.



<a id='88zQ9xrkQDFwiGGDVvhF5g' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2244113899' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'88zQ9xrkQDFwiGGDVvhF5g',sig:'Y_Qg5aALpwK78mcNufY1I4tP5xiQ2XBtOTMos6xrwSU=',w:'594px',h:'432px',items:'2244113899',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Gabriel Magalhães (£14.22m) is a set piece machine. 



Jurriën Timber (£11.35m) plays 90 every week. 



Riccardo Calafiori (£8.62m) is incredible value. 



Pick any two and sleep well.



Over 50% clean sheet chance this week. 



Am I a bad fan if I want Burnley to score?



Newcastle



Second-best defensive record, yet I&#8217;ve barely seen anyone with Newcastle defenders. 



Criminal.



Tasty game against West Ham this week. 



<a id='tgbY0zlSTSdj6Ur9aPH3pA' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2242092459' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'tgbY0zlSTSdj6Ur9aPH3pA',sig:'urrCYXsP1ERy_sCa8K4ajesoPdEagfgsri5mwyuyoh0=',w:'594px',h:'415px',items:'2242092459',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Dan Burn (£9.44m) is the play if you&#8217;ve got the cash. 



Hard when Arsenal face Burnley though.



Leeds



There&#8217;s method to my Joe Rodon (£8.54m) and Jayden Bogle (£5.61m) double-up. 



They&#8217;re actually decent (-1.4 against easy fixtures).



Was devastated when they conceded late last week &#8211; thought the clean sheet was in the bag. 



Tough run coming (11.9 npxG) so I&#8217;m jumping off one in the next few weeks. 



Not urgent yet.



<a id='GUzKGzzRTANdiGFuR8u9tw' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2243173952' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'GUzKGzzRTANdiGFuR8u9tw',sig:'NRplTMgANLAklh7XqzgwvieqpVit18eZH5IMX9lfU3E=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2243173952',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Sunderland



Outperformed their easy fixtures (-0.6), but that upcoming run is brutal (12.4 npxG). 



Take your profit and get around Arsenal instead.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Pretenders</h3>



The Bottom Three



Burnley (15.9 npxG Allowed), West Ham, Forest &#8211; relegation-level defending. 



Not even thinking about defenders from these teams.



Chelsea



This surprised me. +2.0 means they&#8217;re leaking chances even against average attacks.



<a id='SPeE6dDjTTZzTOt_j_6rEQ' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2242868248' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'SPeE6dDjTTZzTOt_j_6rEQ',sig:'BHtCZZLHhrYv3t8Drv6vpWp81t3-xfeXEkAwIrPX0Bk=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2242868248',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



I&#8217;m doubled up with Marc Cucurella (£8.75m) and Reece James (£10.45m). 



At least they attack and have good fixtures (9.9 npxG). 



Won&#8217;t keep this structure long after these fixtures though.



Manchester United



Buy their attackers. 



Their defence (+2.3) is relegation-worthy. 



Absolute shambles.



<a id='AzLGf6vwR4taHVEAg4Mxfg' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2243766830' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'AzLGf6vwR4taHVEAg4Mxfg',sig:'iAU2QwzulSL1pfHuNTinJjrSZFFR8y5zjHq_RDgNe9w=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2243766830',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



Tottenham



I ditched Micky van de Ven (£8.90m) and Pedro Porro (£7.71m) in the last two weeks. 



Their defence is a pretender (+0.8).



Yep, I missed out on 58 points from them last week. 



Not salty at all. 



Bloody Spurs.



If you&#8217;re holding Spurs defenders thinking they&#8217;re set-and-forget, reconsider. 



The breakeven is nice, but it&#8217;s fooled me once this year. 



Don&#8217;t make the same mistake.



<a id='Qp0tR60fQiFLaTmahOPDjw' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2242535686' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'Qp0tR60fQiFLaTmahOPDjw',sig:'J7Llse7EltNJBon2Av-dLhwKRUoYTeCiFUNwLrjbsTY=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2242535686',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">My Trades This Week</h2>



Right, the shopping list: Muñoz, Gabriel, Timber, Sarr, Mateta, and Mbeumo.



That&#8217;s possible, right?



The easy move: Kudus (£9.10m) to Sarr. 



Done.



The harder moves: Getting Mateta or Mbeumo requires proper downgrades elsewhere. 



Not simple sideways trades &#8211; actual structural changes.



Giving Rodon a week to bank cash, then pivoting him to Muñoz. 



Who I hope drops in value before then. (He won&#8217;t. Watch him pop off for 20+ this week.)



<a href="https://scplaybook.com.au/subscribe">Become a member of the SC Playbook community by subscribing for less than $2 per week! Gain access to additional premium articles on site every week, our Whatsapp community, prize money and plenty more. Check it out here.</a>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="571" src="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-6.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-2402995" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-6.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-6-300x167.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-6-768x428.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-6-640x357.jpg 640w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



This week&#8217;s play: Can&#8217;t loop, so I&#8217;m looping Sarr as his welcome gift into Haaland.



The verdict: Palace and United attackers, Arsenal defenders &#8211; these are the teams to own. 



City&#8217;s fixtures get harder but they&#8217;re still elite. 



And if you&#8217;re holding Spurs or Chelsea defenders thinking they&#8217;re set-and-forget? 



The numbers say otherwise.

EPL Supercoach | Elite vs Exposed, the Fixture-Adjusted Truth

Discussion (0)

EPL Supercoach | Finding Your Ownership Edge

EPL Supercoach | Cracking the code to pricing and breakevens

Supercoach EPL Strategic Downgrades | Finding gold in the bargain bin

EPL Supercoach base Stats: Foundation metrics you must track