Supercoach EPL | The end of season gold mine


<p>Arsenal lose to City, and somehow it&#8217;s the best thing that happened to my Supercoach team all week. 159 points. Cherki, Haaland, and Guehi all popped off. </p>



<p>Rank 63. As an Arsenal fan, I should be miserable, but my City assets are suddenly looking very tasty for the run-in.</p>



<p>Blank gameweek. 4 trades left. Top 50 in the crosshairs. Every move from here needs to service the entire run-in, not just a fortnight. </p>



<p>The managers who finish strong pick motivated players and hold them. Here&#8217;s how to get it right.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Data Is Clear. Attack Wins the Run-In.</strong></h3>



<p>More of an eye test than anything. Every season, it feels like the final weeks throw up some ridiculous scorelines. </p>



<p>Big goals, unexpected results, chaos. I wanted to actually test whether that feeling holds up.</p>



<p>Seven seasons of GW38 data. Here&#8217;s what it means for how you should be building your squad and formation heading into the run-in.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Season</td><td>Avg GW1-37</td><td>GW38 Goals</td><td>vs Avg</td><td>Craziest Score</td></tr><tr><td>2017/18</td><td>26.68</td><td>31</td><td>+4.32</td><td>Spurs 5:4 Leicester</td></tr><tr><td>2018/19</td><td>28.00</td><td>36</td><td>+8.00</td><td>Palace 5:3 Bournemouth</td></tr><tr><td>2019/20</td><td>27.08</td><td>33</td><td>+5.92</td><td>Man City 5:0 Norwich</td></tr><tr><td>2020/21</td><td>26.89</td><td>31</td><td>+4.11</td><td>Leicester 2:4 Spurs</td></tr><tr><td>2021/22</td><td>27.89</td><td>39</td><td>+11.11</td><td>Arsenal 5:1 Everton</td></tr><tr><td>2022/23</td><td>28.22</td><td>33</td><td>+4.78</td><td>Southampton 4:4 Liverpool</td></tr><tr><td>2023/24</td><td>32.22</td><td>37</td><td>+4.78</td><td>Brentford 2:4 Newcastle</td></tr><tr><td>2024/25</td><td>29.49</td><td>24</td><td>-5.49</td><td>Brighton 4:1 Spurs</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Six of the last seven seasons produced significantly more goals than the weekly average. One season bucked the trend. The table speaks for itself.</p>



<p>Which means you want attacking players from motivated teams, not defenders banking on clean sheets that aren&#8217;t coming. </p>



<p>A 2-5-3 is the formation to aim for come GW38. The only defenders worth holding are the ones who contribute offensively. Getting there means making the right trades now.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Who&#8217;s On the Beach, Who to Avoid, Who to Target</strong></h3>



<p>Teams marked (Bye) have a blank this gameweek.</p>



<p><strong>On the Beach</strong></p>



<p>Burnley (Bye)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Wolves&nbsp;are done. Relegated. I&#8217;d be surprised if you own either. Moving on.</p>



<p>Crystal Palace&nbsp;are the tricky one. The manager insists they&#8217;re taking the Premier League seriously, but the rotation has been hard to ignore. Avoid until you see a double gameweek confirmed.</p>



<p>Fulham, Newcastle, and Sunderland are safe, settled, and sleepwalking to the finish line.</p>



<p>Leeds (Bye) are nervous, but fixtures suggest survival is coming. Nothing meaningful to chase once they are safe.</p>



<p>Liverpool, Man United, and Aston Villa are never bad teams to pick from. But the Champions League is all but wrapped up for all three. Rotation is coming. Not a priority right now.</p>



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<p><strong>Motivated</strong></p>



<p>Arsenal still have the best defence in the league, and the title race means Arteta won&#8217;t be rotating freely. </p>



<p>Timber is the one to watch when he returns from injury. Attacking threat is the key metric when targeting defenders at this point of the season.</p>



<p>Brentford have United, City, and Liverpool in their next five. Thiago will be fine regardless, but don&#8217;t load up beyond him right now.</p>



<p>Bournemouth (Bye) sit 7th and are very much fighting for a Conference League spot. Brighton (Bye) are just above them in 6th with Europa League on the line. Both blank this week, but load up when the doubles come.</p>



<p>Chelsea (Bye) are a must trade this week. Rosenior got sacked after five straight losses without scoring a goal, the worst run since 1912. </p>



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<p>Interim boss Calum McFarlane takes over with five games left. They&#8217;re mathematically alive for Europe, but a squad that hasn&#8217;t scored in five matches isn&#8217;t about to spark a run. Get out now. I can&#8217;t wait to ditch Cucurella.</p>



<p>Everton still has a sneaky chance at Europe themselves, so a couple of PODs could be worth it. Both have Spurs in GW38 — I smell goals in that fixture.</p>



<ul>
<li>Garner (£10.4m)&nbsp;— solid output, good base stats, worth targeting.</li>



<li>Dewsbury-Hall (£9.67m)&nbsp;— same story, back them both.</li>
</ul>



<p>Forest — don&#8217;t be fooled by their 5-point cushion above the drop zone. Two Spurs wins, and suddenly they are in serious trouble. They have plenty to play for.</p>



<ul>
<li>Elliott Anderson (£8.44m) — not the flashiest pick, but he has a very high floor. A safe option if you want exposure to a team with something to play for.</li>



<li>Igor Jesus (£7.01m) — has been scoring well, but the minutes risk means I can&#8217;t pull the trigger.</li>



<li>Gibbs-White (£12.34m) — feels too expensive at this point of the season. Well played to anyone who had him for 36 points this week, though.</li>
</ul>



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<p>Man City (Bye) have a blank this week, but don&#8217;t let that fool you. They&#8217;re level on points with Arsenal at the top of the table and have a double gameweek coming. </p>



<p>My hope is that Pep plays his best players when the title is on the line. Hold your City assets and load up after the blank if you have the trades to spare.</p>



<p>Spurs. Why am I about to convince you to buy players from a team sitting 18th who haven&#8217;t won in the Premier League since December? </p>



<p>Because I back teams with something to play for. And Wolves this week is exactly the kind of fixture to spark a run.</p>



<ul>
<li>Porro (£6.98m)&nbsp;— showed last week what he can do and is the type of attacking defender to target right now.</li>



<li>Van de Ven (£3.5m) — basement price after a -7 red card against Palace four weeks ago. Remember when he was owned by 30% of coaches at £11.4m? A long time ago. High risk, real upside.</li>



<li>Simons (£5.54m) — goal and an assist last week for 19 points, his second-highest score of the season. De Zerbi was glowing post-game. Back him to drag Spurs away from the drop.</li>
</ul>



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<p>West Ham&#8217;s Bowen (£12.21m) is a must. A team fighting for survival with one of the most dangerous attackers in the league. Don&#8217;t overthink it. </p>



<p>Mavropanos (£14.74m) does get forward and has the goals to show for it, but I&#8217;m not sure the value is there at that price.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>My Plan</strong></h3>



<p>Is it really come to this? Buying a Spurs player at rank 63 chasing the top 50? Apparently yes.</p>



<p>Cucurella is gone. No hesitation. Unfortunately, with how much value he lost last week, my options are limited. I don&#8217;t want to touch my City players with a double gameweek coming, so I&#8217;m happy to take one donut this week and go hard on the doubles in the run-in.</p>



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<p>That rules out another Arsenal defender and Porro, my two main targets. Which leaves Van de Ven. Worst case, I only need him for this week, and he rots last on the bench. </p>



<p>Fine at that price. Frees up more money to play with in the weeks ahead.</p>



<p>Risky play. But at least if he sucks and Spurs lose to Wolves, I&#8217;ll enjoy that as an Arsenal fan. Need something to celebrate right now.</p>



<p>Back the teams still fighting. Avoid the ones already on the beach. If you get this right, we&#8217;re laughing come GW38.</p>


Supercoach EPL | The end of season gold mine

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