Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 3

We’re two rounds into the Big Bash season and we’re receiving clarity about the make-up of many teams.



The key to success in Supercoach BBL to me is understanding the roles of players, and thus we should be shaping our trades accordingly to what we’ve learned so far.



For example, we’ve learned that D’Arcy Short isn’t considered a bowling option for the Hurricanes just yet, meaning he’s very unlikely to enter my team until this changes. Perhaps when Shadab Khan leaves?



On the flip side, Shadab himself is batting at number four and bowling regularly, putting him right on my radar.



Then there’s someone like Aaron Hardie, who could bat anywhere from 3-6, and bowl anything from 0-4 overs, making him an absolute wildcard!



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The Cooma Stallions have started with a bang, notching 1,401 points in Round 2 to move up to 73rd in the overall rankings.



I used one of my three trades last round to get in Sam Billings early for the Heat double, giving me two of their contingent, although cheapie Josh Brown may get dropped.



Hopefully we can continue the early season surge, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned about Supercoach BBL is that like the tournament itself, it’s extremely volatile, so enjoy the peaks ahead of the inevitable troughs.



This week the attention turns to the Brisbane Heat on the double game week.



Let’s take a look at Supercoach BBL Round 3.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Weather Watch</h2>



All weather is courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology as of Wednesday, 1PM. All times are in AEDT. Forecasts are subject to change.



Wednesday



7:15PM: Renegades v Heat, GMHBA Stadium, Geelong



Forecast:&nbsp;Mostly sunny, 26 degrees, 20% chance of rain.



Verdict:&nbsp;Looking all clear.



Thursday



7:15PM: Sixers v Hurricanes, SCG



Forecast:&nbsp;Shower or two, 25 degrees, 60% chance of 0-2mm of rain. Chance of a thunderstorm.



Verdict:&nbsp;Looking okay, but there is a looming threat of rain around Sydney, and a thunderstorm. Keep an eye on the updated forecast across Thursday afternoon, namely the storm threat if it enhances around start time.



Friday



3:30PM: Stars v Scorchers, CitiPower Centre, St Kilda



Forecast:&nbsp;Possible late shower, 24 degrees, 40% chance of 0-1mm rain. Possible afternoon/evening thunderstorm.



Verdict:&nbsp;Looking okay, but there is a looming threat of rain around St Kilda, and a thunderstorm. Keep an eye on the updated forecast across Friday afternoon, namely the storm threat if it enhances around start time.



7:15PM: Heat v Strikers, The Gabba, Brisbane



Forecast:&nbsp;Partly cloudy, 30 degrees, 10% chance of rain.



Verdict: All clear.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Looking Ahead</h2>



Attentions turns to the Brisbane Heat as the sole team on the double game week (DGW), with anywhere from three to maximum five players from their side looking like a good target.



The Sydney Thunder are on the bye, who coming off the double-double will be heavily represented in teams. Look to move on a number of this contingent or risk playing short this week.



It’s exciting that after this round we have no teams on the double game week or on the bye, meaning we can start to target a few of those single game week Supercoach stars without feeling guilty on not chasing DGW players.



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Take the opportunity to target a few of the game’s fallen stars who may have had below par starts resulting in price drops.



Alternatively, chase a few cheapies set for substantial price rises to bolster your team value. Beau Webster or Paddy Dooley anyone?



That being said, if we look ahead to Round 5 we have the Sydney Sixers and Melbourne Renegades playing on the double, so it may be wise to target those sorts of players from their teams in preparation.



On that same round, both the Strikers and Hurricanes have the bye, so keep that in mind.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Super PODs</h2>



In the Final Word, we’ll look at the super POD options, the players at under 5% ownership (or around about) that could send you soaring (or falling) up the overall ranks.



They come with big risk, but the reward is immense if it comes off.



As ownerships of double game week players will likely soar above 10% for most of those options closer to game time once trades are made, I’ll look towards single game week players.



Last week Akeal Hosein put up a respectable 55 points to rise another $21k. With a breakeven of -24 he is only going to continue to generate cash ahead of the Renegades’ Round 5 double.



Kane Richardson – $167,400 (5.5% ownership)



Not only do I Like Richo, I’m really considering buying him this week.



He’s one of the most consistent scorers in Supercoach history despite playing in a poor Renegades side.



He only has one wicket this season so far, meaning he’s dropped $22k, with more drops likely due to a breakeven of 98.



Financially speaking you’d wait another week or two, but I’m tempted to get in early and hopefully jag that big score before everyone loads up on him for the Renegades Round 5 double.



However, I may lean towards a cheapie set to make cash this week to set my squad up for the season.



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Breakevens</h2>



Each week we’ll list the top players with both the highest and lowest breakevens, plus a few additional players worth noting, to help track your cash movement.



The breakeven number is the score required in the upcoming round for a player to make or lose money.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Lowest breakeven (Money-makers)</h3>



Paddy Dooley -80



Jhye Richardson -71



Nathan Coulter-Nile -55



Oliver Davies -46



Aaron Hardie -41



Izharulhaq Naveed -35



Jackson Bird -35



Beau Webster -35



Josh Inglis -33



Adam Zampa -26



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Highest breakeven (Likely price drop)</h3>



Note that the substantially high Heat breakevens are the scores across both games of their double.



Xavier Bartlett 190



Ben McDermott 155



Mark Steketee 128



Sam Billings 121



Jason Sangha 118



Peter Siddle 110



Colin Munro 105



Josh Philippe 104



Fazalhaq Farooqi 104



Jimmy Neesham 99



Faf du Plessis 98



Kane Richardson 98



Sean Abbott 90



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Skippers</h2>



Last week, Jhye Richardson delivered in spades with 260 points for anyone who put the vice-captain or straight captain armband on him, gun!



This week, the Heat on the double play in game one, meaning you should have the VC on one of their players.



While it’s highly likely you’ll use the loop on that player, if they do flop and score say sub 20, it gives you a fair opportunity to keep the captaincy on a proven gun such as Jhye Richardson.



The deck at Geelong for the first game is traditionally bowler friendly, so for that reason, along with the fact bowlers are wayyyy safer in Supercoach, I’ll be going with a bowler.



I find it relatively hard to go past Mark Steketee as he’s a death bowling specialist who could pick up really cheap wickets.



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That being said, it is a fairly open round of options.



Michael Neser is absolute class and may also bowl some death overs, although James Bazley has been handy late in the innings.



If you’re after a POD skipper Bazley also has a nice allround role, although Neser’s return may push him down a spot in the batting order.



If your VC does fail, I find it very hard to go past Jhye Richardson on what we witnessed last round.



Despite his obvious class, he picked up plenty of cheap wickets and also was given a few decent opportunities with the willow.



Shadab Khan is also a genuine option, he has a big score incoming.

Final Word: Captains, weather, super PODs, Rd 3

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