Strategy Playbook: Predicting top 44 run home scorers 

<ul><li>SPY TALK:&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/08/18/spy-talk-head-to-head-finals-tactics-to-advance/" target="_blank">Head-to-head finals tactics to give you an edge</a></li><li>STAT ANALYSIS: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/08/19/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-23-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Vital numbers to beat the best, Round 23</a></li></ul>



Position vs Team analysis – the Run Home



The injury crisis put an abrupt end to most of our start/sit decisions. So, I’ve broadened this analysis to look at the best players for the run home, based on position vs team analysis.



If you’ve still got trades left, well done! This table will help you identify the key targets. If you’re looking to make up ground in your groups or the overall race, be sure to also check out Quantium’s<a href="#_edn1">[i]</a> stat analysis, which will help you identify the best ‘point-of-difference’ players.



Also be sure to keep an eye on ‘3 Wise Draftmen’<a href="#_edn2">[ii]</a> on Twitter, who look at point scoring vs position for each side of the field / player position. It’s a fantastic resource!



A massive thanks again also to nrlsupercoachstats.com<a href="#_edn3">[iii]</a>, whose incredible stats I’ve utilised for the below analysis.



<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/" target="_blank">FINALS</a>&nbsp;<a href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/">PRICE DROP!!!&nbsp;Sign up to SC Playbook&nbsp;</a>for just $10 for extra premium articles every round, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.



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I’ll let the stats speak for themselves. I’ve calculated my estimates based on the formula below.



ESTIMATED POINTS CALCULATION = (Player Points Per Minute (PPM) x Player’s Est. Minutes) + (Opponent PPM x Player’s Est. Minutes)



I’ve exercised a bit of discretion to determine estimated minutes, by taking into consideration player’s average minutes this season, as well as the potential for ‘early showers’ in the last few rounds.



Note that the estimated points are relatively conservative for the highest ranked players, who generally have much higher scoring potential than the rest of the competition.



Hope you all enjoy the last few rounds of the regular season!



*If viewing on mobile, scroll across for full table.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Ranking</td><td>Name</td><td>Team</td><td>Posn</td><td>Est. Mins</td><td>AvgScore</td><td>PPM</td><td>Total Est Pts</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Trbojevic, Tom</td><td>MNL</td><td>FLB</td><td>75</td><td>135</td><td>1.77</td><td>296</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Cleary, Nathan</td><td>PTH</td><td>HFB</td><td>75</td><td>112</td><td>1.43</td><td>241</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Ponga, Kalyn</td><td>NEW</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>72</td><td>0.97</td><td>238</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Papenhuyzen, Ryan</td><td>MEL</td><td>FLB</td><td>70</td><td>73</td><td>1.35</td><td>224</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Walsh, Reece</td><td>NZL</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>69</td><td>0.94</td><td>221</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Garrick, Reuben</td><td>MNL</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>89</td><td>1.11</td><td>219</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Grant, Harry</td><td>MEL</td><td>HOK</td><td>65</td><td>71</td><td>1.3</td><td>212</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Doueihi, Adam</td><td>WST</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>79</td><td>1.01</td><td>212</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Tedesco, James</td><td>SYD</td><td>FLB</td><td>75</td><td>84</td><td>1.09</td><td>210</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Fifita, David</td><td>GCT</td><td>2RF</td><td>65</td><td>88</td><td>1.31</td><td>209</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Schuster, Josh</td><td>MNL</td><td>2RF</td><td>80</td><td>64</td><td>0.8</td><td>204</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Walker, Cody</td><td>STH</td><td>FE</td><td>80</td><td>84</td><td>1.06</td><td>204</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Leilua, Luciano</td><td>WST</td><td>2RF</td><td>80</td><td>64</td><td>0.82</td><td>204</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Walker, Sam</td><td>SYD</td><td>HFB</td><td>80</td><td>67</td><td>0.85</td><td>202</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Papalii, Isaiah</td><td>PAR</td><td>FRF</td><td>60</td><td>80</td><td>1.18</td><td>202</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Curran, Joshua</td><td>NZL</td><td>2RF</td><td>70</td><td>71</td><td>1.01</td><td>201</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Haas, Payne</td><td>BRO</td><td>FRF</td><td>60</td><td>69</td><td>1.11</td><td>199</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Gutherson, Clint</td><td>PAR</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>76</td><td>0.96</td><td>196</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Frizell, Tyson</td><td>NEW</td><td>2RF</td><td>75</td><td>65</td><td>0.83</td><td>195</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Mitchell, Latrell</td><td>STH</td><td>FLB</td><td>75</td><td>82</td><td>1.04</td><td>195</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Kennedy, William</td><td>SHA</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>63</td><td>0.81</td><td>193</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Cherry-Evans, Daly</td><td>MNL</td><td>HFB</td><td>80</td><td>73</td><td>0.91</td><td>193</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Jackson, Josh</td><td>BUL</td><td>2RF</td><td>75</td><td>62</td><td>0.85</td><td>193</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Holmes, Valentine</td><td>NQC</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>68</td><td>0.85</td><td>192</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Barnett, Mitchell</td><td>NEW</td><td>2RF</td><td>70</td><td>64</td><td>0.91</td><td>191</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Munster, Cameron</td><td>MEL</td><td>FE</td><td>80</td><td>72</td><td>0.9</td><td>189</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Thompson, Luke</td><td>BUL</td><td>FRF</td><td>55</td><td>67</td><td>1.18</td><td>188</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Brailey, Jayden</td><td>NEW</td><td>HOK</td><td>75</td><td>61</td><td>0.77</td><td>186</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Young, Hudson</td><td>CBR</td><td>2RF</td><td>70</td><td>60</td><td>0.92</td><td>186</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Edwards, Dylan</td><td>PTH</td><td>FLB</td><td>80</td><td>62</td><td>0.8</td><td>184</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Cook, Damien</td><td>STH</td><td>HOK</td><td>75</td><td>64</td><td>0.83</td><td>183</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Murray, Cameron</td><td>STH</td><td>2RF</td><td>60</td><td>70</td><td>1.14</td><td>179</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Johnston, Alex</td><td>STH</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>72</td><td>0.93</td><td>179</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Ramien, Jesse</td><td>SHA</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>63</td><td>0.83</td><td>177</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Koloamatangi, Keaon</td><td>STH</td><td>2RF</td><td>70</td><td>60</td><td>0.83</td><td>177</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>Burton, Matt</td><td>PTH</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>66</td><td>0.83</td><td>176</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Thompson, Corey</td><td>GCT</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>62</td><td>0.81</td><td>176</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Mansour, Josh</td><td>STH</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>69</td><td>0.88</td><td>173</td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td>Kelly, Brian</td><td>GCT</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>60</td><td>0.77</td><td>171</td></tr><tr><td>40</td><td>Gagai, Dane</td><td>STH</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>68</td><td>0.86</td><td>170</td></tr><tr><td>41</td><td>Fisher-Harris, James</td><td>PTH</td><td>FRF</td><td>50</td><td>64</td><td>1.21</td><td>170</td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td>Manu, Joseph</td><td>SYD</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>62</td><td>0.77</td><td>166</td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td>Rapana, Jordan</td><td>CBR</td><td>CTW</td><td>80</td><td>63</td><td>0.78</td><td>164</td></tr><tr><td>44</td><td>Pangai, Tevita*</td><td>PTH</td><td>FRF</td><td>45</td><td>67</td><td>1.2</td><td>153</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Ranking</td><td>Name</td><td>Posn</td><td>Rd 23 OPP</td><td>RD 23 Est Pts</td><td>Rd 24 OPP</td><td>RD 24 Est Pts</td><td>Rd 25 OPP</td><td>RD 25 Est Pts</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Trbojevic, Tom</td><td>FLB</td><td>CBR</td><td>98</td><td>BUL</td><td>100</td><td>NQC</td><td>98</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Cleary, Nathan</td><td>HFB</td><td>STH</td><td>79</td><td>WST</td><td>83</td><td>PAR</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Ponga, Kalyn</td><td>FLB</td><td>BUL</td><td>86</td><td>GCT</td><td>73</td><td>BRO</td><td>79</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Papenhuyzen, Ryan</td><td>FLB</td><td>GCT</td><td>77</td><td>PAR</td><td>73</td><td>SHA</td><td>74</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Walsh, Reece</td><td>FLB</td><td>BRO</td><td>78</td><td>CBR</td><td>71</td><td>GCT</td><td>72</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Garrick, Reuben</td><td>CTW</td><td>CBR</td><td>70</td><td>BUL</td><td>75</td><td>NQC</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Grant, Harry</td><td>HOK</td><td>GCT</td><td>73</td><td>PAR</td><td>67</td><td>SHA</td><td>72</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Doueihi, Adam</td><td>FLB</td><td>SHA</td><td>71</td><td>PTH</td><td>64</td><td>BUL</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Tedesco, James</td><td>FLB</td><td>STG</td><td>72</td><td>STH</td><td>65</td><td>CBR</td><td>72</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Fifita, David</td><td>2RF</td><td>MEL</td><td>67</td><td>NEW</td><td>72</td><td>NZL</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Schuster, Josh</td><td>2RF</td><td>CBR</td><td>66</td><td>BUL</td><td>69</td><td>NQC</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Walker, Cody</td><td>FE</td><td>PTH</td><td>64</td><td>SYD</td><td>66</td><td>STG</td><td>75</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Leilua, Luciano</td><td>2RF</td><td>SHA</td><td>67</td><td>PTH</td><td>66</td><td>BUL</td><td>71</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Walker, Sam</td><td>HFB</td><td>STG</td><td>63</td><td>STH</td><td>61</td><td>CBR</td><td>78</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Papalii, Isaiah</td><td>FRF</td><td>NQC</td><td>70</td><td>MEL</td><td>64</td><td>PTH</td><td>68</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Curran, Joshua</td><td>2RF</td><td>BRO</td><td>68</td><td>CBR</td><td>68</td><td>GCT</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Haas, Payne</td><td>FRF</td><td>NZL</td><td>67</td><td>SHA</td><td>65</td><td>NEW</td><td>67</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Gutherson, Clint</td><td>FLB</td><td>NQC</td><td>72</td><td>MEL</td><td>61</td><td>PTH</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Frizell, Tyson</td><td>2RF</td><td>BUL</td><td>67</td><td>GCT</td><td>63</td><td>BRO</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Mitchell, Latrell</td><td>FLB</td><td>PTH</td><td>61</td><td>SYD</td><td>64</td><td>STG</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Kennedy, William</td><td>FLB</td><td>WST</td><td>65</td><td>BRO</td><td>73</td><td>MEL</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Cherry-Evans, Daly</td><td>HFB</td><td>CBR</td><td>58</td><td>BUL</td><td>66</td><td>NQC</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Jackson, Josh</td><td>2RF</td><td>NEW</td><td>65</td><td>MNL</td><td>63</td><td>WST</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Holmes, Valentine</td><td>FLB</td><td>PAR</td><td>63</td><td>STG</td><td>67</td><td>MNL</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Barnett, Mitchell</td><td>2RF</td><td>BUL</td><td>65</td><td>GCT</td><td>61</td><td>BRO</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Munster, Cameron</td><td>FE</td><td>GCT</td><td>65</td><td>PAR</td><td>62</td><td>SHA</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Thompson, Luke</td><td>FRF</td><td>NEW</td><td>63</td><td>MNL</td><td>63</td><td>WST</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Brailey, Jayden</td><td>HOK</td><td>BUL</td><td>62</td><td>GCT</td><td>64</td><td>BRO</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Young, Hudson</td><td>2RF</td><td>MNL</td><td>62</td><td>NZL</td><td>62</td><td>SYD</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>30</td><td>Edwards, Dylan</td><td>FLB</td><td>STH</td><td>58</td><td>WST</td><td>65</td><td>PAR</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>31</td><td>Cook, Damien</td><td>HOK</td><td>PTH</td><td>59</td><td>SYD</td><td>65</td><td>STG</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>32</td><td>Murray, Cameron</td><td>2RF</td><td>PTH</td><td>59</td><td>SYD</td><td>60</td><td>STG</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>33</td><td>Johnston, Alex</td><td>CTW</td><td>PTH</td><td>58</td><td>SYD</td><td>58</td><td>STG</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>34</td><td>Ramien, Jesse</td><td>CTW</td><td>WST</td><td>60</td><td>BRO</td><td>63</td><td>MEL</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>35</td><td>Koloamatangi, Keaon</td><td>2RF</td><td>PTH</td><td>58</td><td>SYD</td><td>60</td><td>STG</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>36</td><td>Burton, Matt</td><td>CTW</td><td>STH</td><td>56</td><td>WST</td><td>60</td><td>PAR</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>37</td><td>Thompson, Corey</td><td>CTW</td><td>MEL</td><td>54</td><td>NEW</td><td>62</td><td>NZL</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>38</td><td>Mansour, Josh</td><td>CTW</td><td>PTH</td><td>56</td><td>SYD</td><td>56</td><td>STG</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>39</td><td>Kelly, Brian</td><td>CTW</td><td>MEL</td><td>52</td><td>NEW</td><td>61</td><td>NZL</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>40</td><td>Gagai, Dane</td><td>CTW</td><td>PTH</td><td>55</td><td>SYD</td><td>55</td><td>STG</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>41</td><td>Fisher-Harris, James</td><td>FRF</td><td>STH</td><td>56</td><td>WST</td><td>57</td><td>PAR</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>42</td><td>Manu, Joseph</td><td>CTW</td><td>STG</td><td>57</td><td>STH</td><td>53</td><td>CBR</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>43</td><td>Rapana, Jordan</td><td>CTW</td><td>MNL</td><td>54</td><td>NZL</td><td>58</td><td>SYD</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>44</td><td>Pangai, Tevita*</td><td>FRF</td><td>STH</td><td>50</td><td>WST</td><td>51</td><td>PAR</td><td>52</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



End notes



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<a href="#_ednref1">[i]</a> <a href="http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/">http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/</a>



<a href="#_ednref2">[ii]</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen">https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen</a>



<a href="#_ednref3">[iii]</a> <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com">https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com</a>

Strategy Playbook: Predicting top 44 run home scorers

Discussion (0)

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