Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 18?

<ul id="block-54e2e597-0f5a-48e4-aea2-e3f79a0a2476"><li>SQUAD BREAKDOWN:&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/07/13/squad-breakdown-team-insights-round-18/" target="_blank">Rd 18 team insights and SuperCoach analysis</a></li><li>CAPTAIN&#8217;S CHALLENGE: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/07/14/captains-challenge-who-to-skipper-in-round-18/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Who to skipper in Round 18</a></li></ul>



I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.&nbsp;



First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’, nrlsupercoachstats.com and Quantium for their amazing stats, which I utilise weekly for this analysis.&nbsp;



So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.&nbsp;



I’ve also analysed each player’s key stats (as explained below).&nbsp;



<a href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/">PRICE DROP!!!&nbsp;</a><a href="http://13.210.220.211/subscribe/">Sign up to SC Playbook&nbsp;</a>for just $20 for extra premium articles every round, including access to our subscriber special question and answer podcast.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Description</td><td>Statistics</td></tr><tr><td>“Lower Floor”</td><td>Base (hit-ups &amp; tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)</td></tr><tr><td>“Mid Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks &amp; offloads) – negatives&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>“Upper Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>“Ceiling”</td><td>The player’s highest score, in their last 3 seasons.&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Player</td><td>Lower Floor</td><td>Mid Floor</td><td>Upper Floor</td><td>Ceiling</td><td>Season Ave</td><td>Estimated Points</td><td>Estimated Minutes</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Laurie, Daine</td><td>23</td><td>32</td><td>33</td><td>119</td><td>58</td><td>69</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Cook, Damien</td><td>42</td><td>48</td><td>48</td><td>146</td><td>59</td><td>58</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Harawira-Naera, Corey</td><td>40</td><td>51</td><td>51</td><td>141</td><td>62</td><td>65</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Walker, Sam</td><td>12</td><td>17</td><td>26</td><td>163</td><td>68</td><td>72</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Burton, Matt</td><td>24</td><td>30</td><td>32</td><td>123</td><td>65</td><td>58</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Matterson, Ryan</td><td>46</td><td>53</td><td>54</td><td>115</td><td>61</td><td>61</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Fonua-Blake, Addin</td><td>44</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>142</td><td>55</td><td>55</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Hunt, Ben</td><td>21</td><td>34</td><td>37</td><td>134</td><td>70</td><td>61</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Nofoaluma, David</td><td>23</td><td>38</td><td>38</td><td>134</td><td>56</td><td>58</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Schuster, Josh</td><td>34</td><td>43</td><td>45</td><td>93</td><td>64</td><td>60</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Milne, Taane</td><td>20</td><td>29</td><td>30</td><td>131</td><td>58</td><td>59</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Fisher-Harris, James</td><td>49</td><td>58</td><td>58</td><td>102</td><td>63</td><td>59</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Thompson, Luke</td><td>54</td><td>60</td><td>60</td><td>92</td><td>65</td><td>60</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Ramien, Jesse</td><td>31</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>124</td><td>61</td><td>55</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Brailey, Jayden</td><td>49</td><td>51</td><td>52</td><td>102</td><td>64</td><td>56</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Watson, Connor</td><td>40</td><td>47</td><td>47</td><td>117</td><td>62</td><td>52</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Bird, Jack</td><td>32</td><td>42</td><td>43</td><td>107</td><td>57</td><td>52</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Nikorima, Kodi</td><td>19</td><td>25</td><td>39</td><td>134</td><td>65</td><td>56</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Barnett, Mitchell</td><td>46</td><td>53</td><td>57</td><td>125</td><td>65</td><td>53</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Faasuamaleaui, Tino</td><td>45</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>110</td><td>57</td><td>52</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Paulo, Junior</td><td>39</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>103</td><td>57</td><td>51</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Capewell, Kurt</td><td>36</td><td>43</td><td>43</td><td>95</td><td>56</td><td>51</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Kelly, Brian</td><td>26</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>109</td><td>54</td><td>51</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Utoikamanu, Stefano</td><td>33</td><td>38</td><td>38</td><td>71</td><td>44</td><td>48</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Gamble, Tyson</td><td>23</td><td>26</td><td>28</td><td>60</td><td>42</td><td>53</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>27</td><td>Saab, Jason</td><td>15</td><td>19</td><td>20</td><td>162</td><td>49</td><td>51</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>28</td><td>Staines, Charlie</td><td>16</td><td>20</td><td>21</td><td>158</td><td>42</td><td>48</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>29</td><td>Roberts, James</td><td>16</td><td>22</td><td>22</td><td>82</td><td>31</td><td>46</td><td>80</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="603" height="332" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/image-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1951650" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/image-2.png 603w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/image-2-300x165.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 603px" /></figure>



You’ll notice that I’ve ranked a few players above / below their estimated points.&nbsp;



I like Damien Cook’s matchup vs the Dogs, even backing up from Origin. He has a 5-day turnaround and a high ceiling (even though he hasn’t reached it yet this season) so I’ve bumped him up the rankings.&nbsp;



Sam Walker could be another high ceiling play for his matchup vs the Cowboys. However, he carries more risk with a low base. I’ve bumped him down the rankings slightly due to this.&nbsp;



I expect Matt Burton to see more ball playing at 5/8, so I’ve bumped him up a few spots. I’ve also moved Addin Fonua-Blake up the rankings, as I expect him to continue to improve following his return from injury a few weeks back.&nbsp;



FOLLOW OUR TIPS USING EXCLUSIVE TOPSPORT MARKETS!&nbsp;TopSport are home of the only true same-game multi, where the market odds ACTUALLY add up.&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.topsport.com.au/?Referrer=SC%20Playbook" target="_blank">Use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1949480" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--2048x1149.jpg 2048w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--800x450.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



Ben Hunt has a short turnaround following his Origin heroics, so I’ve bumped him down a few spots. On the other hand, I like the matchup for David Nofoaluma on his preferred right wing against the Broncos.&nbsp;



Kodi Nikorima I’ve bumped down the rankings due to losing the goalkicking last week. He may also have been carrying an injury niggle of some sort. I’ve also dropped Jason Saab down the rankings, as his stats are significantly better when Turbo is in the side.&nbsp;



Hopefully the rest of the rankings are reasonably self-explanatory.&nbsp;



Good luck with your selections!



End notes



1 <a href="https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen">https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen</a>



2 <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com">https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com</a>&nbsp;



3 <a href="http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/">http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/</a>&nbsp;

Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 18?

Discussion (0)

Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 9 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 8 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

Market watch: Using Bookie Odds for Rd 7 BBL SuperCoach Decisions

BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 6