Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 16?

<ul><li>STAT ANALYSIS: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/06/30/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-16-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Vital numbers to beat the best</a></li><li>SPY TALK: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/06/30/spy-talk-answering-the-big-questions-rd-16/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Answering the big decisions in Round 16</a></li></ul>



I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week. 



First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’, nrlsupercoachstats.com and Quantium for their amazing stats, which I utilise weekly for this analysis.&nbsp;



So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.&nbsp;



Given a picture can be worth a thousand words, I’ve also added a line chart, analysing each player’s key stats (as explained below). 



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<a id='1vJfDAxjSfBKpqNKSnSkPw' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1233062926' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'1vJfDAxjSfBKpqNKSnSkPw',sig:'FTMPDSb4LCy0v1nkRnDoHCVYXMq751ISbbJol4ILqBs=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1233062926',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Description</td><td>Statistics</td></tr><tr><td>“Lower Floor”</td><td>Base (hit-ups &amp; tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)</td></tr><tr><td>“Mid Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks &amp; offloads) – negatives&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>“Upper Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Rank</td><td>Player</td><td>Lower Floor</td><td>Mid Floor</td><td>Upper Floor</td><td>Season Ave</td><td>Estimated Points</td><td>Estimated Minutes</td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Barnett</td><td>46</td><td>53</td><td>57</td><td>66</td><td>70</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Fisher-Harris</td><td>49</td><td>58</td><td>58</td><td>64</td><td>65</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Capewell</td><td>36</td><td>44</td><td>44</td><td>58</td><td>67</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>45</td><td>51</td><td>51</td><td>58</td><td>62</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Hunt, B</td><td>20</td><td>32</td><td>35</td><td>68</td><td>62</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Matterson</td><td>45</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>60</td><td>59</td><td>70</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Thompson, L</td><td>54</td><td>61</td><td>61</td><td>66</td><td>61</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Peachey</td><td>34</td><td>41</td><td>44</td><td>62</td><td>58</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Watson</td><td>40</td><td>46</td><td>47</td><td>58</td><td>57</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Taukeiaho</td><td>42</td><td>47</td><td>52</td><td>55</td><td>56</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Paulo</td><td>40</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>57</td><td>57</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Burton</td><td>24</td><td>31</td><td>32</td><td>68</td><td>62</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>Walker, S</td><td>12</td><td>17</td><td>25</td><td>73</td><td>59</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>Bird</td><td>32</td><td>42</td><td>43</td><td>57</td><td>57</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>15</td><td>Laurie</td><td>24</td><td>33</td><td>34</td><td>59</td><td>56</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>16</td><td>Luai</td><td>21</td><td>30</td><td>36</td><td>64</td><td>53</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>17</td><td>Saab</td><td>16</td><td>19</td><td>20</td><td>43</td><td>51</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>18</td><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>24</td><td>39</td><td>40</td><td>57</td><td>51</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>19</td><td>Smith, R</td><td>24</td><td>32</td><td>32</td><td>54</td><td>50</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>20</td><td>Kelly, B</td><td>25</td><td>34</td><td>34</td><td>53</td><td>50</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>21</td><td>Simonsson</td><td>22</td><td>29</td><td>29</td><td>40</td><td>44</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>22</td><td>Staines</td><td>15</td><td>20</td><td>21</td><td>43</td><td>46</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>23</td><td>Utoikamanu</td><td>34</td><td>38</td><td>38</td><td>45</td><td>45</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>24</td><td>Gamble</td><td>23</td><td>25</td><td>28</td><td>41</td><td>49</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>25</td><td>Suaalii</td><td>24</td><td>28</td><td>28</td><td>40</td><td>41</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>26</td><td>Roberts</td><td>17</td><td>22</td><td>22</td><td>32</td><td>39</td><td>80</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="840" height="554" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-10.05.10-am.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1951392" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-10.05.10-am.png 840w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-10.05.10-am-300x198.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-10.05.10-am-768x507.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Screen-Shot-2021-07-01-at-10.05.10-am-640x422.png 640w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



You’ll notice that I’ve ranked a few players above / below their estimated points. My explanations for these are as below.



I think JFH is a shot at increased minutes in the big game vs the Eels, so he gets a bump up. Luke Thompson’s minutes and scoring has been down since the return of Josh Jackson, so he gets a bump down. Taukeiaho played a huge 70 minutes last round, so I’ve moved him up a few spots. 



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1948538" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--2048x1149.jpg 2048w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--800x450.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



Burton could do anything playing at halfback. However, with a tough matchup against the Eels, I’d avoid the uncertainty and go with someone with a higher floor, if you can. I’m also concerned about Sam Walker’s matchup against the Storm, although he could kick goals for the full game with Keighran out.&nbsp;



Simonsson or Staines aren’t the worst plays now that they have starting fullback roles if you’re short in CTW. In the event of any late outs, Utoikamanu or Gamble could provide okay cover if you have them. I favour Utoikamanu of these two, given his higher floor and ability to jag an attacking stat. &nbsp;



Good luck with your selections!



End notes



1 <a href="https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen">https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen</a>



2 <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com">https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com</a>&nbsp;



3 <a href="http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/">http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/</a>&nbsp;

Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 16?

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