Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 11?


<p>I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.</p>



<p>One lesson learned for me from the last few weeks was the impact of form (i.e., Saab). So, I’ve incorporated three round and five round averages into the tables.</p>



<p>First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftsmen’<a href="#_edn1">[i]</a>, nrlsupercoachstats.com<a href="#_edn2">[ii]</a> and Quantium<a href="#_edn3">[iii]</a> for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.</p>



<p>The 3 Wise Draftsmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds.</p>



<p>The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.</p>



<a id='l7T8iGmORBdOqZXNKqj0qg' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1317953057' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'l7T8iGmORBdOqZXNKqj0qg',sig:'zjUhW-9POgOdpUs-RT152JjqFZcXxzilVUiPw8kbVUQ=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1317953057',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.</p>



<p>So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis.</p>



<p>I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Description</strong></td><td><strong>Statistics</strong></td></tr><tr><td>“Lower Floor”</td><td>Base (hit-ups &amp; tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)</td></tr><tr><td>“Mid Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks &amp; offloads) – negatives</td></tr><tr><td>“Upper Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>I’ve also added an ‘estimated points’ section for this round. I’ve calculated this as follows:</p>



<ul><li>(Opposition PPM conceded x expected minutes + player’s season average) divided by 2. The opposition PPM conceded is from nrlsupercoachstats.com.</li></ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Reserves</strong></h2>



<p>Sam Walker tops this list based on his matchup vs the Broncos this week. Josh Schuster is next, what a weapon he is! Christian Welch is in third, as a result of his relatively high floor and offloading ability.</p>



<p>For those who still own, I think Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is a decent play this week vs the Bulldogs. I’m speculating that his work rate will stay up with no Fififta, as it was last round. I think he’s also a chance of jagging attacking stats vs the Dogs.</p>



<p>It’s a tough call between Junior Paulo and Connor Watson. I’m speculating that Paulo may get additional minutes vs the Sea Eagles, whilst Watson’s minutes are too hard to predict.</p>



<a id='H4eJhCsuR3VWQ2TD4lLbQA' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1318239838' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'H4eJhCsuR3VWQ2TD4lLbQA',sig:'DKj2liD4YX8LPm_4bOpBb8p-q-pZ1i6njQd0lc9aPI0=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1318239838',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>You could make a similar case for Capewell getting additional minutes vs the Rabbitohs. He is returning from a HIA though.</p>



<p>Matt Lodge has a higher floor than Jacob Liddle, but less potential for attacking stats and a worse matchup. So, I have Liddle above him.</p>



<p>Taukeiaho’s minutes are too hard to predict to make him a reliable play. I have him second last in the rankings, just above Tyson Gamble, who has a tough matchup against the Roosters.</p>



<p><em><strong>Rankings:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated points</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>S Walker*</td><td>74.2</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Schuster</td><td>65.1</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Welch</td><td>59.6</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>55.5</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Paulo</td><td>58.7</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Watson</td><td>56.8</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Capewell</td><td>56.2</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Liddle</td><td>52.5</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Lodge**</td><td>50.2</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Taukeiaho***</td><td>54.1</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Gamble</td><td>44.1</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Floors:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Lower Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Mid Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Upper Floor</strong></td></tr><tr><td>S Walker*</td><td>13</td><td>19</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Schuster</td><td>36</td><td>44</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>Welch</td><td>45</td><td>59</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>45</td><td>51</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Paulo</td><td>43</td><td>50</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Watson</td><td>41</td><td>47</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>37</td><td>43</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Liddle</td><td>37</td><td>39</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Lodge**</td><td>39</td><td>52</td><td>52</td></tr><tr><td>Taukeiaho***</td><td>43</td><td>47</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>Gamble</td><td>22</td><td>24</td><td>26</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>*Upper floor adjusted to only reflect goal-kicking games</p>



<p>**Excludes injured game</p>



<p>***Excludes goalkicking points</p>



<p><em><strong>Player Averages:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Season Ave</strong></td><td><strong>3 Rd Avg</strong></td><td><strong>5 Rd Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>S Walker*</td><td>82</td><td>87</td><td>81</td></tr><tr><td>Schuster</td><td>63</td><td>51</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Welch</td><td>63</td><td>58</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>52</td><td>48</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Paulo</td><td>58</td><td>51</td><td>47</td></tr><tr><td>Watson</td><td>62</td><td>59</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>58</td><td>51</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>Liddle</td><td>52</td><td>45</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Lodge**</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Taukeiaho***</td><td>52</td><td>45</td><td>45</td></tr><tr><td>Gamble</td><td>41</td><td>41</td><td>41</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Matchups:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Vs</strong></td><td><strong>Position</strong></td><td><strong>PPM Conceded</strong></td><td><strong>Expected mins</strong></td></tr><tr><td>S Walker*</td><td>Broncos</td><td>HB</td><td>0.83</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Schuster</td><td>Eels</td><td>2RF</td><td>0.84</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Welch</td><td>Raiders</td><td>FRF</td><td>1.1</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>Bulldogs</td><td>FRF</td><td>1.18</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Paulo</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>FRF</td><td>1.1</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>Watson</td><td>Cowboys</td><td>2RF</td><td>0.92</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>Rabbitohs</td><td>2RF</td><td>0.85</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Liddle</td><td>Warriors</td><td>HK</td><td>0.87</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Lodge**</td><td>Roosters</td><td>FRF</td><td>1.05</td><td>46</td></tr><tr><td>Taukeiaho***</td><td>Broncos</td><td>FRF</td><td>1.1</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Gamble</td><td>Roosters</td><td>HB</td><td>0.59</td><td>80</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>CTW</strong></h2>



<p>You must be cheering if you already own Nicho Hynes. His matchup, form and negative breakeven also suggest he’s a viable trade-in this week. I have Nofoaluma next, who can be reliably played against nearly all opposition, due to his high floor.</p>



<p>I’ve given Brian Kelly a bump up the rankings due to the matchup vs the Bulldogs. He also showed a decent floor in the matchup vs the Panthers and may have been positively impacted by Fifita’s absence.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1949480" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--2048x1149.jpg 2048w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--800x450.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p>I have Capewell next, as a relatively safe option in your CTW. If you’re lucky he may also get a few additional minutes this week, in a close contest with the Rabbitohs.</p>



<p>Laurie’s matchup looks decent, but his form has dipped slightly. So, I’ve dropped him down a few spots. I have Sivo ahead of him, but Ferguson below, based on form. The Eels left edge has looked better than the right with Dylan Brown out.</p>



<p>Isaako follows, with a tough matchup against the Roosters. Nonetheless, I have him above the remaining prospects, due to a higher floor.</p>



<p><em><strong>Rankings:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated points</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Hynes*</td><td>80.8</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>59.8</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Kelly</td><td>55.2</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Capewell</td><td>56.2</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Sivo</td><td>59.8</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Laurie</td><td>56.1</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Ferguson</td><td>58.3</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Isaako</td><td>56.8</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Saab</td><td>46.8</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Max Feagai</td><td>46.5</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Staines</td><td>45.3</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Simonsson**</td><td>37.3</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Floors:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Lower Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Mid Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Upper Floor</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Hynes*</td><td>24</td><td>36</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>26</td><td>42</td><td>43</td></tr><tr><td>Kelly</td><td>26</td><td>36</td><td>36</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>37</td><td>43</td><td>44</td></tr><tr><td>Sivo</td><td>20</td><td>32</td><td>33</td></tr><tr><td>Laurie</td><td>24</td><td>34</td><td>35</td></tr><tr><td>Ferguson</td><td>29</td><td>39</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Isaako</td><td>20</td><td>31</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Saab</td><td>15</td><td>19</td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td>Max Feagai</td><td>26</td><td>34</td><td>34</td></tr><tr><td>Staines</td><td>16</td><td>21</td><td>22</td></tr><tr><td>Simonsson**</td><td>25</td><td>31</td><td>31</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>*Starting games</p>



<p>**Injured game excluded</p>



<p><em><strong>Player Averages:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Season Ave</strong></td><td><strong>3 Rd Avg</strong></td><td><strong>5 Rd Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Hynes*</td><td>100</td><td>116</td><td>100</td></tr><tr><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>62</td><td>69</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Kelly</td><td>52</td><td>50</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>58</td><td>51</td><td>55</td></tr><tr><td>Sivo</td><td>62</td><td>58</td><td>77</td></tr><tr><td>Laurie</td><td>57</td><td>62</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td>Ferguson</td><td>59</td><td>54</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Isaako</td><td>68</td><td>91</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>Saab</td><td>44</td><td>82</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>Max Feagai</td><td>41</td><td>41</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Staines</td><td>45</td><td>69</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Simonsson**</td><td>33</td><td>41</td><td>32</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Matchups:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Vs</strong></td><td><strong>Position</strong></td><td><strong>PPM conceded</strong></td><td><strong>Expected mins</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Hynes*</td><td>Raiders</td><td>FLB</td><td>0.77</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>Warriors</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.72</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Kelly</td><td>Bulldogs</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.73</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Capewell</td><td>Rabbitohs</td><td>2RF</td><td>0.85</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Sivo</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.72</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Laurie</td><td>Warriors</td><td>FLB</td><td>0.69</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Ferguson</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.72</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Isaako</td><td>Roosters</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.57</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Saab</td><td>Eels</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.62</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Max Feagai</td><td>Sharks</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.65</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Staines</td><td>Rabbitohs</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.57</td><td>80</td></tr><tr><td>Simonsson**</td><td>Storm</td><td>CTW</td><td>0.52</td><td>80</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Good luck with your selections!</p>



<p>End notes</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<p><a href="#_ednref1">[i]</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen">https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen</a></p>



<p><a href="#_ednref2">[ii]</a> <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com">https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com</a></p>



<p><a href="#_ednref3">[iii]</a> <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/">http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/</a></p>


Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 11?

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