Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 10?


<ul><li><strong>SQUAD BREAKDOWN: <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/05/11/squad-breakdown-team-insights-round-10/" target="_blank">SuperCoach team insights, Round 10</a></strong></li><li><strong>STAT ANALYSIS: <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/05/12/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-10-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Vital numbers to beat the best</a></strong></li></ul>



<p>Just when you think we’re building our squads nicely, SuperCoach throws us a bunch of spanners. Of course!</p>



<p>This makes start/sit all the more complex this week. I’ve ranked my plays for reserves and CTW below.</p>



<p>First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’<a href="#_edn1">[i]</a>, nrlsupercoachstats.com<a href="#_edn2">[ii]</a> and Quantium<a href="#_edn3">[iii]</a> for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.</p>



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<p>The 3 Wise Draftsmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.</p>



<p>The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.</p>



<p>So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Description</strong></td><td><strong>Statistics</strong></td></tr><tr><td>“Lower Floor”</td><td>Base (hit-ups &amp; tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)</td></tr><tr><td>“Mid Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks &amp; offloads) – negatives</td></tr><tr><td>“Upper Floor”</td><td>Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Reserves</strong></h2>



<p>I’ve got Schuster at the top of this list, based on a favourable matchup against the Broncos.</p>



<p>He’s followed by Welch and Curran, due to their high floors. Curran’s base was a little down last week. However, I believe that was because of the number of tries scored during Sea Eagles vs Warriors match, resulting in less time in play.</p>



<p>If you have Peachey, I think he’s a solid play in 17’s this week as either a reserve or CTW. I’m speculating that he’ll have a strong match vs his former club (he’s averaged 63 against them in two games<sup>ii</sup>). Paulo, Taukeiaho, Lodge and Fa’asuamaleaui follow him in my rankings as solid plays. So far, Taukeiaho has still been getting decent minutes off the bench.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1949480" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--2048x1149.jpg 2048w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--800x450.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p>Next, I have Liddle, who should see decent minutes if the Tigers team make-up stays the same. I then have Watson, whose minutes are a concern, but the matchup looks favourable. This is the main reason I have him above Riki and Gamble.</p>



<p>Much of this week’s start/sit dilemmas will revolve around Sam Walker, who is carrying injury niggles, but has a favourable matchup vs the Cowboys. Generally, if you can cover him with a player from a later matchup (Eels, Warriors, Storm, Dragons, Titans or Panthers), then I would do that. Otherwise, I would avoid him as a play this week due to the risk of a late out.</p>



<p><em><strong>Rankings:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Schuster</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Welch</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Curran</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Peachey</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Paulo</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Taukeiaho</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Lodge*</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Liddle</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Watson</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Riki**</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Gamble</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>S Walker</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Floors &amp; Averages:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Lower Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Mid Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Upper Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Season Ave</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Schuster</td><td>38</td><td>46</td><td>47</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Welch</td><td>46</td><td>60</td><td>60</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Curran</td><td>44</td><td>49</td><td>49</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Peachey</td><td>35</td><td>41</td><td>44</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Paulo</td><td>41</td><td>51</td><td>51</td><td>60</td></tr><tr><td>Taukeiaho</td><td>46</td><td>50</td><td>55</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Lodge*</td><td>40</td><td>52</td><td>52</td><td>51</td></tr><tr><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>45</td><td>50</td><td>50</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Liddle</td><td>38</td><td>41</td><td>41</td><td>56</td></tr><tr><td>Watson</td><td>41</td><td>47</td><td>48</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td>Riki**</td><td>42</td><td>47</td><td>48</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Gamble</td><td>31</td><td>33</td><td>36</td><td>58</td></tr><tr><td>S Walker</td><td>14</td><td>20</td><td>27</td><td>86</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>*Excludes injured game</p>



<p>**Starting games</p>



<p><em><strong>Player Matchups:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Vs</strong></td><td><strong>Position</strong></td><td><strong>Rds 1 &#8211; 8 opp.<br>Points allowed</strong></td><td><strong>Rd 9 opp.<br>Points allowed</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Schuster</td><td>Broncos</td><td>Left 2RF</td><td>68</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>Welch</td><td>Dragons</td><td>Prop***</td><td>48</td><td>54</td></tr><tr><td>Curran</td><td>Eels</td><td>Left 2RF</td><td>50</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Peachey</td><td>Panthers</td><td>Lock</td><td>54</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Paulo</td><td>Warriors</td><td>Prop***</td><td>62</td><td>41</td></tr><tr><td>Taukeiaho</td><td>Cowboys</td><td>Prop***</td><td>57</td><td>73</td></tr><tr><td>Lodge*</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>Prop***</td><td>55</td><td>40</td></tr><tr><td>Fa&#8217;asuamaleaui</td><td>Panthers</td><td>Prop***</td><td>48</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Liddle</td><td>Knights</td><td>Hooker</td><td>47</td><td>76</td></tr><tr><td>Watson</td><td>Tigers</td><td>Lock</td><td>74</td><td>48</td></tr><tr><td>Riki**</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>Left 2RF</td><td>50</td><td>57</td></tr><tr><td>Gamble</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>Right Half</td><td>50</td><td>95</td></tr><tr><td>S Walker</td><td>Cowboys</td><td>Right Half</td><td>88</td><td>55</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>***Props = ave. of two starting</p>



<p><strong><u>CTW</u></strong></p>



<p>If you own Nofoaluma, you’re probably playing him every week given his solid floor. His matchup also looks decent this week.</p>



<p>Nicho Hynes also looks an excellent play, provided he starts. You may want to have cover ready just in case he drops out for Ryan Papenhuyzen though.</p>



<p>Sivo has a nice matchup this week, as do Isaako and Ferguson. Consequently, I have them above Peachey. Laurie follows due to a slightly lower floor.</p>



<a id="8rCoLpnnRp1dFmg6U0Z9Rw" class="gie-single" href="http://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/1232645059" target="_blank" style="color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;" rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'8rCoLpnnRp1dFmg6U0Z9Rw',sig:'i21BTRpJ8dNYGhCL0qfOARNLW9TG5HSM_60R3kEyEVo=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'1232645059',caption: true ,tld:'com.au',is360: false })});</script><script src="//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8" async=""></script>



<p>Simonsson looked much better on the left-wing last week. Provided he stays there, I have him above Brian Kelly for this round, due to a tough matchup for the Titans vs Panthers.</p>



<p>Staines has been very unpredictable, but could provide valuable cover for any late outs, due to playing in the last game of the round.</p>



<p>Saab’s matchup isn’t the worst, but his floor is such that I’d still be inclined to avoid playing him. Max Feagai has shown a decent floor in his two matchups, but I’d also avoid playing him against the Storm.</p>



<p><em><strong>Rankings:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Rank</strong></td><td><strong>Player</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1</td><td>Nofoaluma</td></tr><tr><td>2</td><td>Hynes*</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>Sivo</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>Isaako</td></tr><tr><td>5</td><td>Ferguson</td></tr><tr><td>6</td><td>Peachey</td></tr><tr><td>7</td><td>Laurie</td></tr><tr><td>8</td><td>Simonsson**</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>Kelly</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>Staines</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>Saab</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>Max Feagai</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><em><strong>Player Floors &amp; Averages:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Lower Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Mid Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Upper Floor</strong></td><td><strong>Season Ave</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>27</td><td>43</td><td>44</td><td>63</td></tr><tr><td>Hynes*</td><td>23</td><td>33</td><td>33</td><td>79</td></tr><tr><td>Sivo</td><td>21</td><td>32</td><td>32</td><td>62</td></tr><tr><td>Isaako</td><td>20</td><td>31</td><td>40</td><td>69</td></tr><tr><td>Ferguson</td><td>29</td><td>40</td><td>41</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Peachey</td><td>35</td><td>41</td><td>44</td><td>64</td></tr><tr><td>Laurie</td><td>25</td><td>36</td><td>37</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Simonsson**</td><td>25</td><td>31</td><td>31</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Kelly</td><td>26</td><td>35</td><td>35</td><td>53</td></tr><tr><td>Staines</td><td>16</td><td>21</td><td>22</td><td>42</td></tr><tr><td>Saab</td><td>14</td><td>17</td><td>17</td><td>38</td></tr><tr><td>Max Feagai</td><td>26</td><td>34</td><td>34</td><td>41</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>*Starting games</p>



<p>**Injured game excluded</p>



<p><em><strong>Player Matchups:</strong></em></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Vs</strong></td><td><strong>Position</strong></td><td><strong>Rds 1 &#8211; 8 opp.<br>Points allowed</strong></td><td><strong>Rd 9 opp.<br>Points allowed</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Nofoaluma</td><td>Knights</td><td>R Wing</td><td>54</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Hynes*</td><td>Dragons</td><td>FLB</td><td>72</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td>Sivo</td><td>Warriors</td><td>L Wing</td><td>74</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td>Isaako</td><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>FLB</td><td>66</td><td>50</td></tr><tr><td>Ferguson</td><td>Warriors</td><td>R Wing</td><td>55</td><td>94</td></tr><tr><td>Peachey</td><td>Panthers</td><td>Lock</td><td>54</td><td>59</td></tr><tr><td>Laurie</td><td>Knights</td><td>FLB</td><td>58</td><td>49</td></tr><tr><td>Simonsson**</td><td>Bulldogs</td><td>L Wing</td><td>51</td><td>89</td></tr><tr><td>Kelly</td><td>Panthers</td><td>L Centre</td><td>39</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td>Staines</td><td>Titans</td><td>R Wing</td><td>43</td><td>113</td></tr><tr><td>Saab</td><td>Broncos</td><td>R Wing</td><td>47</td><td>66</td></tr><tr><td>Max Feagai</td><td>Storm</td><td>R Wing</td><td>37</td><td>20</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>All the best with your selections. Enjoy Magic Round!</p>



<p>End notes</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



<p><a href="#_ednref1">[i]</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen">https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen</a></p>



<p><a href="#_ednref2">[ii]</a> <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com">https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com</a></p>



<p><a href="#_ednref3">[iii]</a> <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/">http://13.210.220.211/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/</a></p>


Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 10?

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