Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 19

Okay, who did what to the Supercoach Gods?  That was some week of chaos, and it unfortunately was not a ladder for me, posting just a 2316 score. 

A small overall rank decline for but I did get the W over Charlie so I’m happy enough! 

Losing 38 points by playing Dev Rob over Maric hurts, if only he wasn’t dropped in the first place or Brisbane didn’t have a Thursday night match.  Bringing in Sam Walsh did not have the immediate success I was hoping for, but West Coast awaits this week so expecting a big bounce.

I’m glad there’s good news regarding Josh Dunkley, so just waiting on Darcy Cameron now so I can finally field a full-strength premium side.  Would be the first time since 2021!

With only the one trade left, I’m bypassing the watchlist and heading straight into the break-even analysis.  The watchlist would only reflect people who I could potentially luxury upgrade to, or trade to in the event of an injury but that come from any line at any price.  There’s no point theorising until that inevitable injury comes.

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Break-even Analysis

BUBBLE BOY’S

• Taj Woewodin (MID/FWD $123.9 B/E -26) – 43 and then 54 so tracking nicely.  4 out of 6 games left are at the MCG.
• Cooper Harvey (MID/FWD $117.3k B/E -22) – North is in an injury crisis, so his spot looks the safest of the bubble boys plus he is the cheapest.
• Sam Banks (DEF/MID $123.9k B/E -19) – Should be okay in the short term but Short is returning quicker than expected.

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CONSIDER

• Neil Erasmus (MID $210.4k B/E -48) – Looks like Freo have conceded finals and are looking ahead to next year.  He should get a good chance from here on unless Will Brodie is thrown in which looks unlikely.
• Ivan Soldo (RUC/FWD $297.3k B/E -41) – The number one guy with Nank out.  Should score well for two more weeks.
• Corey Wagner (DEF/MID $160.4k B/E -31) – I doubt his job security is good enough to bring in.
• Matt Roberts (MID/FWD $148.6k B/E -27) – Had a full game in the VFL and dominated the stat sheet.  Could be recalled.
• Jack Peris (MID/FWD $123.9k B/E -18) – Looked good in his debut.  I’d probably still grab Harvey if you needed a rookie.

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• Aidan Corr (DEF $338.1k B/E -16) – If JZ stays sub or forward, this guy benefits.
• Jack Silvagni (FWD $395.4k B/E 19) – In a purple patch of form and plays WC this week.
• Max Gawn (RUC $566.7k B/E 24) – If only Melbourne didn’t trade in Grundy.  If you have Darcy or looking to luxury trade, he is your man.
• Jack Steele (MID $501.5k B/E 41) – Looks like he’s back to somewhere near his best.  Well done to the holders.
• Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $550.9k B/E 51) – I’m kind of wishing I went here instead of Walsh.  The injury concerns scare me though.
• George Hewett (MID $259.8k B/E 53) – Benefiting from Kennedy’s injury.  Spot in the team looks safe now and he’s sharing the CBAs with Walsh.

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TRADE OUT OPTIONS

• Adam Cerra (MID $610.8k B/E 161) – Confirmed out this week, could be more?  It’s going to be a theme in this section – if you have multiple trades and poor cover you can trade him.  6 premium scores are better than 5 from here on of you’re looking for total points.
• Bailey Dale (DEF $512.5k B/E 150) – Put in a stinker and JJ is back very soon.  I’d still probably hold.
• Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $418.8k B/E 139) – Might get a reprieve with the injuries at the club.  If he’s sub or confirmed playing forward you must trade if you can.
• Ben Keays (Mid/FWD $514.3k B/E 136) – This tagging caper really hurts his ceiling.  If you had multiple trades, I’d look to move him on however the Rachele suspension helps short term.

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• Rowan Marshall (RUC $566.2k B/E 116) – He did go massive two weeks ago so I’m forgiving the poor outing.  The temptation is strong to move him to Gawn, but I think that is chasing points.
• Tom Green (MID $549k B/E 112) – If you were holding hoping for a one week hammy, you’re out of luck.  Out for another two and must trade at this point of the season.
• Ben Hobbs (MID/FWD $459.7k B/E 108) – Setterfield is close to returning which could really hurt his role and scoring.
• Kieren Briggs (RUC $505.5k B/E 102) – I’d probably take the punt on Gawn if I were still holding Briggs.  Looks to be running out of steam a little.

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Tag Watch

Tim Taranto – Maginness or Nash could run with him.

Luke Parker – James Aish could stick to him in this one.

Nick Daicos – Willem Drew, Darcy Byrne-Jones or Jackson Mead could be the next people to try their luck with Nick.  Maybe all three at once is the go 😉

Luke Davies-Uniake – Windhager looks to be back in a tagging role.

Jack Steele – Could get Shiels if he starts dominating this contest.

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Potential Trades

The plan is to hold for when this injury comes.