Bye round analysis: AFL Supercoach, round 13

Data analyst Joe Kenny takes a look at the key talking points from the second round of the bye period


Round 13 was the calm before the storm with just the two teams out on bye and most of the better sides scoring at least 2,100.

Picking the right captain was one of the keys to last round with basically anyone but English (99) or Dawson (95) scoring well.

Things get tougher from here with those that have planned well set to be rewarded.

Read on for how the rest of the comp is shaping up for the next two rounds.

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Bye strategy – week three

  • Keep on upgrading (or move on Sicily …) to players who have had their bye – Neale, Brayshaw, Sinclair, Stewart, Parker, Warner, Anderson or Rowell.
  • If you’re still short on players, move some rookies in that have also had their bye – Melican or a debutant (slim pickings this week …).
  • The other option is to sideways an underperforming premium to an option above – Coniglio, T. Green, Ziebell and Sheezel could be an option if you think they will continue to fade in the back half of the season and have a few trades up your sleeve.
  • Count your trades out for the remaining bye rounds and double-check for round 15.
  • Hope your premiums aren’t the next tribunal victim of the dangerous tackle.

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How’s everyone else looking – the top 1,000:

Below we can see the average top 1,000 structure as of round 13 and how they are set up for the byes.

  • For round 14, the average top team will be fielding about 20 players and have about 5 premiums off on bye. This might improve with trades but should be what you are aiming to match or exceed.
  • Round 15 remains the toughest week but has gotten slightly stronger compared to last week (1 less premium out on average). Teams will have an average of 11-12 premiums plus whatever rookies can be scraped together. If you can get ahead of this, you are doing well.
  • Non-playing rookies are down again from an average of just under 5 to fewer than 4, with S. Mitchell returning and coaches moving out their dead wood.
  • Most of the top coaches have traded Ashcroft out (45% general ownership vs. 15%) but if you still have him, I would hold until the byes are over despite an elevated breakeven.
  • The key points of difference the top coaches have on the rest of the completion are Merrett (20% vs. 85%), Laird (32% vs. 91%) and Stewart (25% vs. 90%). These could hurt non-owners down the final stretch of the season if their form continues so could be good players to get in.

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