Bye round analysis: AFL Supercoach, round 12

Data analyst Joe Kenny takes a look at the key talking points from the first round of the bye period


Round 12 tested our resolve with a popular late out (S. Mitchell) making it a small miracle (or a bunch of trades) just to field 18.

The key for the week seemed to be having a few of English (156), Petracca (159), N. Daicos (123), Stewart (127) or Merrett (137) and avoiding any GWS, Carlton and North Melbourne players not named Kieran Briggs.

We get a bit of a reprieve this week with just the two teams on bye but read on for some insight into rounds 14 and 15.

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Bye strategy – week two

  • Upgrade to players who have had their bye and are at a nice price point – Neale, Brayshaw, Steele or Sinclair are top of mind for me.
  • Consider moving underperforming premiums if it helps your bye structure (and you have lost the faith) – Ziebell, Sheezel or Day.
  • Count your trades out for the remaining bye rounds and be sure to have at least 5 left and a full team each week.
  • Check how many round 15 bye players you have (you will be horrified).
  • Pray for no more suspensions or injuries and for your dodgy rookies to keep their spots.

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How’s everyone else looking – the top 1,000

Below we can see the average top 1,000 structure as of round 12 and how they are set up for the byes.

  • The top teams are up to about 19 premiums and a team value of $13.5 million. This is the pace we need to be matching.
  • Round 15 is looking worse than last week – coaches are up to an average of 15 non-playing players and 8 premiums on bye. I suspect a few coaches will have loaded up last week without realising how short they will be later on. This is a great opportunity to move up the ranks if you plan your trades well.
  • Non-playing rookies are down from 5.6 to 4.6 (thanks Cincotta!) – Although this is still a high number and will cause problems in rounds 14 and 15. Good luck finding another rookie to trade them too – I wouldn’t go early on any of Melican, Mullin, Harrison or Macdonald.
  • The bold decision to bring in Humphrey and Briggs is paying off with both at about 50% ownership in the top 1,000 and both continuing to score well. This proves mid-season mid-pricers can be a good pick – but how many who missed out now try and catch up with Yeo, Fyfe or Keays?

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