Quantium data analysis: True player ownership stats, Round 7

Actuary Adam Driussi provides player ownership breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

NRL

Analysing the top 100,000 NRL Supercoach teams after Round 7

Apologies for the hiatus in ownership stats over the past 2 weeks – I’ve been in South Africa and didn’t have access to the data so couldn’t get stats out last week and only got back this afternoon so better late than never.

As always two weeks is a long time in Supercoach, and we’ve seen lots of ownership changes. With the SC Spy burning boosts like they are going out of fashion, perhaps this has inspired the SC Playbook faithful to do similar.

From a personal perspective, I can’t buy luck in my team. Not owning Reece Walsh has killed my side and to then have my boy Jacob Kiraz go down was gutting from both a Bulldogs perspective and a Supercoach perspective. We move forward though!

Let’s take a look at the true player ownership stats entering Round 8 – remember that these stats are prior to any trades made this week.

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Fullback

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback.

The major change at fullback ownership over the past fortnight has been the surge in ownership for Latrell Mitchell amongst leading teams. 24% of the top 1,000 teams now own Latrell, up from 4% two weeks ago. In contrast, Turbo’s ownership has fallen from 99% to 84%.

During that time, Latrell has racked up scores of 146, 121 and now 98 pre updates – so those who brought him in have killed it.

With no Latrell or Reece Walsh, I’ve decided to take a gamble and bring in James Tedesco. Here’s hoping Teddy can return to form – at just 1% ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams he could prove an awesome POD if he does!

CTW

Injuries and HIAs to Jacob Kiraz and Reuben Garrick over the past couple of weeks have put a cat amongst the pigeon in terms of CTW ownership. Throw in Joseph Manu being named at five-eighth this week and it certainly creates a lot of interest in CTW this week.

Whilst Manu is the most traded in player this week, he starts from an ownership of just 0.49% amongst the top 10,000 teams. At the time of writing, 18,000 teams have brought in Manu in already so his ownership will certainly surge this week. With Kiraz going down, he was an obvious trade in for my side.

Reuben Garrick’s ownership plummeted in the last two weeks as he missed a game due to a HIA. His ownership now sits at just 17% amongst the top 10,000 teams – compared to 37% a fortnight ago…a 58% amongst the top 100. With a juicy match up against the Tigers this week, it’s no surprise to see him the second most traded in player this week.

Greg Marzhew is now owned by over 50% of the top 20,000 teams – versus just 1% a fortnight ago.

5/8

With Adam Doueihi’s season ending injury a fortnight ago, we have seen some major changes in ownership in that time.

Cody Walker is now owned by 30% of the top 5,000 teams and 48% of the top 100. With scores of 132, 106 and 65 pre updates – and playing every week until Round 15 – he has proved a master purchase.

His price will also have increased by $250k during that time making him a very awkward buy for those who didn’t get on (me included!). I’ll be hoping Dylan Brown can rack up so similar scores as Cody’s draw gets tougher over the next few weeks.

Kalyn Ponga owned by just 160 of the top 10,000 teams. With a price of just $531k, he could prove a serious POD – especially if he misses out on Origin.

Halfback

The vast majority of leading teams now own both Nathan Cleary and Nicholas Hynes. I’d imagine that any who don’t, would be scrambling to do so!

2RF

Two weeks ago, J’maine Hopgood was owned by 100% of the top 10,000 teams. Just 20% own Hopgood now.

In contrast, each of Zac Hosking (+65%), David Fifita (+11%) and Cameron Murray (+6%) have each increased in ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams.

Front-row

Payne Haas is now owned the most owned FRF in Supercoach, with over 80% of the top 10,000 teams owning him.

Hooker

Soni Luke is now the second most owned hooker amongst the top 20,000 teams. I understand the cash grab, but at this stage it doesn’t look like he is set to make a huge amount of cash.

Round 7 captains

Good luck to everyone in Round 8. I’ll be heading out to watch my Bulldogs take on the Sharks.

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