Ownership analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 1

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.


Supercoach is back and for most of us so is the reality of a ranking in five digits.

Now is the time to understand why and to do that, we can look at the ownership figures in combination with scoring vs. price.

To measure player/ownership impact, I will use a metric called “Pain/Gain points”.

Firstly, we take a given player’s price, divide it by 5,505 and apply 2% deflation to calculate their expected score (e.g. Rory Laird at $704k is expected to score 130).

We then measure this against the player’s actual score (e.g. 50) and work out the difference (-80).

This difference multiplied by ownership gives a number for total “Pain/Gain points” (-80 * 46k owners = -3.7 million points).

I will ignore rookies to begin with as they will mostly be well over their expected scores.

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The Gainers

  • These are the players having the most positive impact on sides across the competition.
  • The much hyped pre-season picks (Callaghan – 101, Green – 134, Gulden – 115, Daicos – 129) make up four of the top five on this list. It seems simple in hindsight – just do as Twitter tells you!
  • Horne-Francis (136) was a more speculative pick and is already being traded in by many coaches. I’d like to see him do it for one more week before I burn that trade.
  • It was also a good week for those that splashed the cash on their rucks with English, Witts and Gawn all going 130+.
  • Let’s see who can stick around for round 2!

The Painful

  • These are the selections you want to have avoided and did the most damage to coaches.
  • It was not a good week to be a premium midfielder! Laird (50 pts) was well under his expected score but coaches also didn’t get their money’s worth from Brayshaw, Oliver, Neale or Bontempelli. I wouldn’t blame you for trading Laird (that’s a lot of cash!) but I would be waiting on the others.
  • The other large value losing scores are no surprise with Stewart (injury), Jones (injury) and Fyfe (role change + having a shocker) all costing their coaches in the rankings – imagine owning all three…
  • It also wasn’t a week for value rucks as both Grundy (69 points) and Marshall (80 points) underscored their price point. Sometimes, you do get what you pay for.

The Top 1000

  • So much for the year of the mid-pricer! Guns and rookies are back … at least for round 1.
  • The key for the top 1,000 appears to have been:
    • Jump on the hype boys – Tom Green, Gulden and Daicos
    • Avoid the carnage of Laird, Stewart, Jones and Fyfe
    • Pay up for rookies – Mackenzie, Sheezel, Ginbey and Phillipou

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