Fixture analysis: Breaking down the 2023 AFL SuperCoach season

Data guru, Joe Kenny, takes a deep dive into the 2023 fixture to help you target the right players

AFL Key Analysis Pre Season

With the 2023 season rapidly approaching, let’s take a look at the fixture to see if it can help us picking a side.

We can look at opponents average points conceded from last year and byes.

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In Summary

As a reminder, a total of 3300 SuperCoach points are allocated each game.

  • Fremantle has the easiest schedule on paper over the first six rounds with an average 1,703 points conceded per opposition.
  • Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs have the toughest schedule over the first six rounds with 1,616 and 1,606 average opposition points conceded respectively.
  • Uneven bye rounds:
    • Four teams with byes in round 12 – St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle and Brisbane
    • Two teams with byes in round 13 – Geelong and Gold Coast
    • Six teams each for rounds 14 and 15

Points Conceded – Regular Season 2022

  • Not too many surprises here with North Melbourne and West Coast giving up the most points and reflecting where they finished on the ladder.
  • Port Adelaide and Carlton were the stingiest in terms of allowing points – if only they could convert this into winning more games.

Rounds 1-6

  • We all want to get off to a hot start and a soft fixture for who we select could just tip the scales in our favour. Of course, good players can still score well against tough opponents – this is not the be all and end all! Perhaps just a nudge if you are tossing up between two players.
  • This may also be more relevant for your rookie, value and mid-price selections that we are looking to make a quick dollar on. Over the course of a full season, the strength of opponent tends to level out.

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  • Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs have a tough first six rounds. This could be reason enough to wait and see on the role for Tom Mitchell or Jack Macrae. You may also look to scoop one of these up as a first upgrade at a discount as they then move into a softer schedule.
  • With Fremantle’s easy first six rounds, you may be more inclined to go with mid-priced forward Nat Fyfe. He may get you some points and cash quickly before a tougher schedule and/or injury.
  • We can also see that a decent number of popular cheaper picks have a tough start to the season – looking at McClean, Bruce, Pedlar, Ginbey, Hopper, Yeo, Chesser, Coffield, and O. Allen. Maybe don’t load up too much on this group.

Full Season

As a reminder bye rounds will take your 18 best scores for the round.

  • Fixtures tend to balance out over the course of a season and teams will be different to last year so there is not too much to focus on for later in the year.
  • It is worth taking a quick look at the byes and making sure you are not too heavily loaded with your premium picks in one round.
  • We typically want to have a slight lean towards players with later bye rounds (and then trade players in as they come off their bye to make up the numbers). However with the uneven bye rounds this year, I would be tempted to end up with a few more round 12 and 13 players. These will be easy to cover for in their own “easy” bye rounds as it is still best of 18, then provide valuable cover in the “hard” bye rounds.

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