Data analysis: Fixtures and structures, Round 16

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

We have made it through the byes and are into the home stretch. It is now time to nail our last couple of trades and pray to the fantasy gods for no more injuries!

To help with your decisions and planning, I will take a look at the strength of schedule for each team’s run home. I’ll also take a look at some ownership data so that you can check in on how your team stacks up versus the consensus top 1,000 team.

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Strength of Schedule

The below table shows the average number of SuperCoach points that each team’s opponent has conceded for the upcoming games and each team’s average score and conceded amount.

  • We can see that Gold Coast has the easiest schedule with 1,699 average points allowed and that Melbourne has the hardest schedule at 1,600 points.
  • North Melbourne is the easiest matchup (no surprises there!) – conceding a whopping 1,836 points on average. Somewhat surprisingly, Carlton has been the toughest matchup with a stingy 1,548 points conceded on average.

Now this doesn’t mean that Touk Miller is going to average 140 and Clayton Oliver is going to average 75 – but could help tip you either way on some of those borderline decisions.

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  • The Suns have it easy (hello first finals appearance?) – Look at getting T. Miller in if you don’t have him and it’s another reason for Witts as your Preuss / English replacement.
  • Richmond has an easy schedule too – enough of a reason to hold onto Short?
  • Based on recent form and the run home I would also like to get Laird or Mills into my side – although I imagine not many would have the cash or trades.
  • The Bulldogs have the 3rd toughest schedule – I might not trade in another bulldog if I already have four or five of them.
  • GWS have a hard schedule too – This suggests getting rid of Preuss and avoiding the likes of Taranto or Kelly. I think you have to hang onto Coniglio based on recent form.

There are plenty more examples so take what you need from below and also consider this with your captain choices each week.

Team Name1617181920212223TotalAvg. ScoredAvg. Allowed
Gold Coast Suns1,6601,6481,6941,5871,8051,7511,6111,8361,69916121689
Richmond1,8051,6891,8361,5761,5871,5761,7511,6941,68916511648
Hawthorn1,6261,6651,8051,8361,6281,6891,6481,5751,68415491751
Adelaide Crows1,5941,7511,6601,6271,5481,8051,8361,5761,67416361665
North Melbourne1,6111,6601,6481,7511,6941,6271,6651,6891,66814651836
Sydney Swans1,6941,5751,5761,6651,6261,8361,6601,6281,65716731627
Geelong Cats1,8361,5941,5481,5761,5751,6281,6891,8051,65616891611
Essendon1,6271,5871,6891,6601,8361,6261,5761,6481,65616061694
Collingwood1,6891,8361,6651,6941,5761,5941,6271,5481,65316401660
Carlton1,6281,8051,6111,6261,6651,5871,5941,6601,64717531548
West Coast1,6481,5481,7511,6281,6891,6651,5761,6111,63914891805
St Kilda1,5481,5761,5751,8051,7511,6111,5871,6271,63516721628
Fremantle1,5761,6281,6271,6481,5941,5751,8051,6261,63517251576
Port Adelaide1,5761,6261,5941,6111,6601,6481,6941,6651,63417241576
Brisbane Lions1,5751,6941,6261,6891,6481,5481,6281,5941,62517051587
Western Bulldogs1,5871,6271,6281,5941,6111,5761,6261,7511,62517241575
GWS Giants1,7511,5761,5871,5481,6271,6941,5751,5761,61716731626
Melbourne1,6651,6111,5761,5751,5761,6601,5481,5871,60017071594
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Generic Top 1,000 “Why doesn’t my team look like this” Team

We look to have just about gone full premium. How coaches have dealt with the ruck crisis looks like it will be a key decider on the run home.

  • The first few changes are fairly straightforward:
    • Last midfield premium position filled by Laird.
    • Bontempelli into the forward line.
    • Shuffling of rookies see’s McCartin, Rosas and C. Stephens cashed in.
  • We then see a variety of approaches for the ruck line:
    • English has largely been held and is still in 70% of the top 1,000 teams.
    • 90% of the top 1,000 now have Witts.
    • Cover for English has been spread fairly evenly across D. Cameron (36%), S. Darcy (35%) and L. Jackson (29%).
  • There are also a few good players outside the consensus team if you are looking for a relative point of difference – J. Dawson (32% owned), C. Mills (33%) and S. Walsh (32%).
Consensus Top 1000 Team
AvgAvg
James Sicily115Lachie Neale129
George Hewett114Clayton Oliver128
Sam Docherty112Rory Laird124
Jack Sinclair110Jack Macrae122
Jack Crisp104Touk Miller115
Jayden Short103Andrew Brayshaw113
Jacob Wehr62Patrick Cripps112
Massimo D’Ambrosio52Christian Petracca106
Greg Clark65
Cooper Hamilton61
Mitch Owens39
AvgAvg
Tim English120Jarrod Witts118
Marcus Bontempelli113Sean Darcy103
Josh Dunkley112Brynn Teakle30
Will Brodie107
Luke Parker104
Stephen Coniglio101
Maurice Rioli52
Judson Clarke45

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