Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 7

Round 6 saw some up and down results, with a score of around 2,200 the mark you would be pretty happy with.

From a season score perspective, rank 1,000 is about 13,766 points and rank 10,000 is at 13,476 points – it’s not over yet.

Let’s take another look at pain and gain points to understand what went right or wrong last week.

Check out the round one article for a more detailed explainer on the pain/gain methodology here.

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From a trade point of view, it is well and truly upgrade season with our rookies getting close to their breakevens and few bargain options available.

All you have to have done is avoid the injury chaos (Grundy) and not have any underperforming premiums (e.g. my entire backline).

We also have to start thinking about our byes and trying not to overload week 12 in particular – happy trading.

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The gainers:

• The same players seem to be popping up each week, as our top three (Coniglio, Brodie and Hewett) delivered yet again. It is no surprise they are so heavily owned by the top 5,000 and it’s looking like they will be in our teams for a lot longer than we initially thought.
• Cripps put out a massive 139, rewarding those who held him through his injury. He is still significantly underpriced (if his early season form continues) and should be a trade target if you don’t have him.
• Rowell scored 103 in another win for the holders – can he string a few of these good games together though?
• Whilst Mills (214 points) put out a monster score, he was only in 2% of teams so did not generate enough gain points to feature on the list. Oliver’s score (168) did a lot more damage if you didn’t have him as he is in 31% of teams.

Full Name	Price Current Round	Owned Current Round	Owned Top 5000 %	Points Current Round	Pain Gain Current Round	Pain / Gain Total
Stephen Coniglio	$428,000	76%	99%	91	5,226,381	35,255,605
Will Brodie	$449,000	52%	93%	103	4,759,210	24,330,928
George Hewett	$536,500	63%	98%	114	3,909,788	20,719,895
Patrick Cripps	$521,100	40%	53%	139	3,499,108	9,693,758
Matt Rowell	$401,000	37%	37%	103	2,370,119	15,084,774
Clayton Oliver	$618,900	31%	44%	168	2,189,071	-473,560
Jarrod Witts	$530,900	19%	38%	143	2,157,434	6,914,721
James Sicily	$532,000	38%	69%	113	1,800,938	8,330,901
Jake Bowey	$383,500	20%	25%	106	1,776,982	5,503,558
Tristan Xerri	$346,200	32%	60%	68	1,493,188	10,674,779

The painful:

• Butters (58 points) did the most damage to owners in round six and interestingly this was magnified for the top 5,000. It seems to be boom or bust with three scores above 110 and three scores below 60. At his current price it looks to be a hold and hope situation.
• Taranto (63) had a down week, but has been relatively consistent otherwise. Potentially one you could look at picking up after his bye once his price is a little lower and if his team role still looks favourable.
• Whitfield (65) frustrated again (copy and pastes comments from last week …). You might have to just hold him for now. Avoiding this selection looks to have been one of the key moves of the season.
• Miller (99) and Petracca (87) underperformed relative to their price points. The question is – are they still trade targets? You can get them at a good discount to starting price but both have had multiple rounds of poor scoring. Looks like a wait and see for me.

Full Name	Price Current Round	Owned Current Round	Owned Top 5000 %	Points Current Round	Pain Gain Current Round	Pain / Gain Total
Zak Butters	$439,900	45%	77%	58	-1,722,000	4,505,771
Tim Taranto	$525,000	22%	11%	63	-1,198,127	167,817
Lachie Whitfield	$445,300	26%	22%	65	-1,146,320	-5,370,901
Touk Miller	$578,600	26%	38%	99	-1,068,066	-3,497,544
Christian Petracca	$555,200	24%	20%	87	-896,139	-562,515
Jake Lloyd	$513,600	13%	3%	71	-755,306	-1,676,800
Jordan Ridley	$479,400	17%	13%	83	-418,808	-2,169,502
Tom Stewart	$571,200	19%	13%	97	-318,974	-101,193

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