Data analysis: Pain and gain points, Round 6

Data analyst Joe Kenny breaks down the key statistics to help give your side an edge on AFL SuperCoach rivals.

AFL

It’s time for an updated look at the players that cost or made your score in round five (and another edition of “why didn’t I trade him?”).

A look at the rankings sees a slightly larger gap forming between 1,000 and 10,000 (11,524 vs 11,277) and the overall leader well ahead on 11,932 points. Time to get moving!

Check out the round one article for a more detailed explainer on the pain/gain methodology here.

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The gainers:

  • Some familiar names at the top as Coniglio (96 points), Brodie (94), Neale (117) and Hewett (111) continued to outscore their price point to the benefit of a significant majority of coaches. If you don’t have these guys you are falling behind.
  • Rowell (64) frustrated coaches again and now has a breakeven of 103. He is still well ahead of his price based on earlier scoring. What you do with him is the question of the round.
  • About 3.5k coaches traded out Xerri and he showed why we don’t overreact to one poor week with a score of 103. He still has plenty of cash to make and now has dual position status – keep him in your team.
  • Heeney (112), Sicily (126) and English (138) rewarded owners and stand as some of the key difference making selections so far in terms of overall ranking. Sicily looks to be the one you could still get at a slight discount with the other two (surely) close to what their peaks will be for the rest of the year (says a non-owner …).
Full NamePrice Current RoundOwned Current RoundOwned Top 5000 %Points Current RoundPain Gain Current RoundPain / Gain Total
Stephen Coniglio$426,50077%100%965,891,64830,029,224
Will Brodie$405,80051%85%943,974,56719,571,719
Lachie Neale$625,60066%99%1171,768,03217,247,716
George Hewett$516,10061%96%1113,550,31416,810,107
Matt Rowell$401,40057%91%6487,71212,714,655
Isaac Heeney$539,70043%57%1121,902,5229,250,799
Tristan Xerri$336,50032%65%1033,284,9649,181,590
James Sicily$505,80034%52%1262,407,9426,529,963
Zak Butters$446,10044%83%1303,468,6016,227,770
Tim English$572,70027%34%1382,001,2494,363,012
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The painful:

  • Grundy sunk a lot of teams with a score of 53 and is now the highest pain point player of the year. Gawn had a better week (130 points) but is still down on price equivalent scoring season to date. The evidence grows that the Gawn-Grundy set and forget era may be over.
  • Our once reliable defenders – Whitfield (73 points), Ridley (82), Rich (84) and the now-inured Hall (71) didn’t score what their owners would have hoped and are likely on the trade block. It’s not too late to move to Sicily or Hewett – but it might be by this time next week.
  • Steele (131), Oliver (118) and Miller (107) feature on this list due to earlier poor scoring and being slightly below the extremely high bar they set last year. All can be had at a discount to their starting price but you still might be better off waiting a couple more price changes to get maximum value.
Full NamePrice Current RoundOwned Current RoundOwned Top 5000 %Points Current RoundPain Gain Current RoundPain / Gain Total
Brodie Grundy$554,20046%69%53-4,655,175-6,414,446
Lachie Whitfield$462,50029%34%73-891,644-4,224,581
Jack Steele$640,50028%24%131239,151-3,042,493
Clayton Oliver$622,00030%29%118-268,676-2,662,631
Max Gawn$639,70041%41%130611,187-2,494,686
Touk Miller$593,70026%40%107-724,612-2,429,478
Jordan Ridley$503,00018%19%82-488,787-1,750,694
Daniel Rich$524,9009%3%84-330,197-1,104,083
Aaron Hall$511,3008%11%71-463,054-834,959

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