Stat Breakdown: Key numbers shaping Round 11

Stat man Maty Broom takes a deep dive into the key numbers to consider when making your Round 11 trades.

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With the changes in fixtures and the addition of more DGWs, we now have a decision to make if we target DGW players or other options we might like without a DGW.

For me I think we should be targeting DGW players and chasing as many points as possible for the remaining rounds.

With five trades each round, this makes it easier to bring in the DGW players we want and I’ll run through most of the relevant options.

Kane Richardson is the first guy to look at from the Renegades and is a must-have for this round.

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Richardson continues to perform, even when the team struggles. He’s had only the one score under 37 this season with an average of 66 showing his consistency.

He had a recent score of 65 at GMHBA Stadium, but importantly he plays at Marvel Stadium that he loves, averaging 84 there. He averages 58 against both the Stars and Sixers.

He is a strong captaincy option that will rarely let us down.

Nic Maddinson isn’t usually a good option given he is more miss than hit in T20s with the bat. Since 2018 he has batted 37 times in the BBL and is averaging 15 in that time, only reaching 20+ runs on seven occasions with three of those being over 30.

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However, he is captain at a new team this season and seems to be bowling himself more, bowling in every game except one, picking up six wickets as well as bowling four overs in two of his past three games. If this continues then his Supercoach credentials increase.

Also, not having to play as often at the MCG like he was at the Stars could help his batting, not having to hit over the big square boundaries there, while a ground like Marvel Stadium might suit him better with his aggressive style. An option to consider.

Sam Harper is always a risky option with the way he bats but one that can pay off on his day, evidenced by his 122 score in round 6. We have seen him dropped down the order to as low as 7 on a couple occasions so there’s also a risk of that happening although it should be unlikely.

He’s usually hit or miss and that is evident again this season. When batting top he has three scores in the 30s and a half century along, with four failures.

He averages 31 against the Stars and 34.3 against the Sixers, with 33.7 at Marvel Stadium and interestingly 67 at GMHBA Stadium.

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With past averages of 40.8, 41.7 and 37.6, to go along with a 42 average this season, we haven’t really seen an improvement Supercoach wise in his scoring and can probably expect much of the same scoring as we’ve seen in the past. A risky option with a decent ceiling if he gets going.

Aaron Finch has been a superstar in the T20 arena for a long time and whilst the best might be past him, he can still go big on his day.

He’s had an up and down season so far with three decent scores and three poor ones and as a result is still reasonably priced and therefore has to be considered for anyone who doesn’t own him already.

With two chances this round, hopefully we can get at least one big game from him.

He comes up against the team he averages best against in the Sixers who he averages 66 against, but also averages just 36.8 against the Stars being his second lowest against any team.

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He averages 35 at GMHBA Stadium from limited opportunities and 53 at Marvel Stadium.

Shaun Marsh has been a gun for a long time and I’d imagine more will look to bring him in now on the double as he is still reasonably priced.

Although he missed out with the bat last game getting run out, he’s looked in good touch already since coming back from injury.

He can go overlooked as an elite batsman in T20s but he has a career T20 average of 37 with a strike rate of 128 from 200 T20 games.

That average goes up to 40 in his BBL career with a strike rate of 129. Those are seriously impressive numbers and shows consistency in a format where consistency is rare for batsman.

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In Supercoach he averages 40.3 against the Sixers and 48.3 against the Stars, along with 43.4 at Marvel Stadium.

A borderline must-have this round and one of the few Renegades batsman you can pick with any confidence.

Zahir Khan started this season really well picking up 7 wickets in his first three games, averaging 68.7, but he has really struggled since then picking up four wickets in his next six games at an economy of 9.8 and averaging just 23 Supercoach points in that time.

He averages 28.5 against the Stars and 24.3 against the Sixers, albeit from limited data.

He will be a cheaper option under $100k but can he bounce back with a big score?

He has averages in past seasons of 30.5 and 45.5 so there doesn’t seem to be too much upside from what we’ve seen and he’s averaging 40.5 this season, this might be what we should expect.

It is worth noting that they play on the same pitch that the Thunder vs Hurricanes played on earlier that day, so should the Renegades bowl second, maybe that will aid spinners in some small way with potentially 60 overs being played on it that day before the Renegades bowl.

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A few Melbourne Stars players are coming back from a COVID break in isolation so it remains to be seen if that affects them in any way or if any rests happen. We’ve seen Adam Zampa come out and say he still feels rundown and everyone will deal with it in their own way, not forcing players to play if they aren’t ready.

They also play on back-to-back days coming into this round and their Thursday game will be three games in four days, does anyone get a rest for that second game this round?

They then play on back-to-back days again the following round making it five games in seven days.

Possible restings and rotations might happen but I’m just speculating at this stage, however that could be something to keep in mind when looking at Stars players that have back-to-back DGWs.

Brody Couch is having a good debut season and has been solid for Supercoach averaging 42.

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Whilst the high ceiling might not be there yet with 74 against the Heat, his highest in a single game so far, he has consistently picked up wickets getting at least 1 wicket in every game except one.

He’ll still be reasonably priced and looks to be one of Stars main seam bowlers, although he’s only bowled his four overs in three of his eight games so far with how many different bowling options the Stars have available.

Couch is still an option to look at but maybe don’t expect much over 100 points in the DGW.

Qais Ahmad has improved his average by 10 points from his last season in the BBL with the Hurricanes. He’s been their best spinner this season with a couple of other Stars players struggling.

He averages 44.7 against the Scorchers and 50.8 against the Renegades. He seems a safe option to bring in but also has a high enough ceiling evidenced by his 122 this season against the Heat and his180 against the Sixers in his previous season.

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Marcus Stoinis is very cheap. Almost a must-have at his price regardless of the fact he’s been out form this BBL, because we know what he is capable of.

He might not be bowling but he is still a very capable batsman. He averages 34 with a 130 strike-rate in his BBL career so the ability is there, it’s just a matter of when he returns to form.

His previous two seasons he averaged 52.2 and 64.9 which was mostly from batting and then his season before those he had an absurd average of 96.9 which involved regular bowling, but it’s clear to see how much better he is than his average would suggest this season.

He averages 94.6 against the Renegades and 50.6 against the Scorchers, along with 85.3 at Marvel Stadium. While these numbers would be somewhat inflated from his bowling as well, the upside is still there.

Adam Zampa has really struggled to get going this season which is very uncharacteristic of him. He’s struggled to pick up wickets and has not been his usual economical self.

If this form continues then he might seem a risky option, but given his price and what we’ve seen in the past, he could be worth the gamble.

His past three seasons he’s averaged 54.3, 64.3 and 49.3, so it’s clear to see he’s capable of better than what we’ve seen this season.

He averages 65.1 against the Renegades and there seems to missing data on his average against the Scorchers, but he averages 78.5 at Marvel Stadium which is the venue he performs best at.

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Hilton Cartwright has struggled to be Supercoach relevant in the past with averages of 35.4, 40.3 and 22.7, he’s not always been handed the most Supercoach friendly roles.

This season he has found some consistency and good form and improved in Supercoach as a result, reaching 20+ runs regularly.

Pure batsman batting outside the top four are usually not great for Supercoach, but Cartwright has found a way this season to still score well.

The top order struggling this season has helped Cartwright get more opportunities with the bat.

He might also be a one who benefits from the power surge, allowing him the chance to score quick runs with the field in towards the end of the innings.

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Whilst I’m personally still hesitant on picking him at his price and batting where he is in the order, there’s no doubting the form he’s in.

Joe Clarke really struggled early on, but has found form in recent times with four half-centuries in his last three games giving him a three round average of 110 in Supercoach.

A career T20 strike-rate of 155 shows how much power he has and how effective he can be in Supercoach when he gets going.

He’s still not super expensive, although he’s getting towards $200k, and also being available at WKP is handy, a strong trade in option and a smokey VC option. 

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