Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 16?

• STAT ANALYSIS: Vital numbers to beat the best
• SPY TALK: Answering the big decisions in Round 16

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week. 

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’, nrlsupercoachstats.com and Quantium for their amazing stats, which I utilise weekly for this analysis. 

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round. 

Given a picture can be worth a thousand words, I’ve also added a line chart, analysing each player’s key stats (as explained below). 

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Description	Statistics
“Lower Floor”	Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”	Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”	Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Rank	Player	Lower Floor	Mid Floor	Upper Floor	Season Ave	Estimated Points	Estimated Minutes
1	Barnett	46	53	57	66	70	80
2	Fisher-Harris	49	58	58	64	65	60
3	Capewell	36	44	44	58	67	70
4	Fa’asuamaleaui	45	51	51	58	62	60
5	Hunt, B	20	32	35	68	62	80
6	Matterson	45	52	52	60	59	70
7	Thompson, L	54	61	61	66	61	50
8	Peachey	34	41	44	62	58	55
9	Watson	40	46	47	58	57	55
10	Taukeiaho	42	47	52	55	56	60
11	Paulo	40	50	50	57	57	53
12	Burton	24	31	32	68	62	80
13	Walker, S	12	17	25	73	59	80
14	Bird	32	42	43	57	57	80
15	Laurie	24	33	34	59	56	80
16	Luai	21	30	36	64	53	80
17	Saab	16	19	20	43	51	80
18	Nofoaluma	24	39	40	57	51	80
19	Smith, R	24	32	32	54	50	80
20	Kelly, B	25	34	34	53	50	80
21	Simonsson	22	29	29	40	44	80
22	Staines	15	20	21	43	46	80
23	Utoikamanu	34	38	38	45	45	45
24	Gamble	23	25	28	41	49	80
25	Suaalii	24	28	28	40	41	80
26	Roberts	17	22	22	32	39	80

You’ll notice that I’ve ranked a few players above / below their estimated points. My explanations for these are as below.

I think JFH is a shot at increased minutes in the big game vs the Eels, so he gets a bump up. Luke Thompson’s minutes and scoring has been down since the return of Josh Jackson, so he gets a bump down. Taukeiaho played a huge 70 minutes last round, so I’ve moved him up a few spots. 

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Burton could do anything playing at halfback. However, with a tough matchup against the Eels, I’d avoid the uncertainty and go with someone with a higher floor, if you can. I’m also concerned about Sam Walker’s matchup against the Storm, although he could kick goals for the full game with Keighran out. 

Simonsson or Staines aren’t the worst plays now that they have starting fullback roles if you’re short in CTW. In the event of any late outs, Utoikamanu or Gamble could provide okay cover if you have them. I favour Utoikamanu of these two, given his higher floor and ability to jag an attacking stat.  

Good luck with your selections!

End notes

¹ https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

² https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com 

³ http://13.210.220.211/category/stat-analysis/