Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 12?

We take a deep dive into the projected output of fringe 17 players to help you decide who to sit and start in your weekly team.

Strategy Playbook

I’m back again for a look at start/sit this week.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last three rounds and five rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

Embed from Getty Images

The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen players whose ownership is around 10% or higher in the top 20k, based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.

I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

DescriptionStatistics
“Lower Floor”Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

I’ve also added an ‘estimated points’ section. I’ve calculated this as follows:

  • (Player’s Season Average + Average points conceded to position by opposition) divided by 2.

Reserves

I’ve got Fisher-Harris on top of this list, based on his high floor. Next, I have Schuster, due to a favourable matchup against the Knights. His base + power stats (39) were also pretty solid last week, despite the move to 5/8. For this reason, I have him just ahead of Burton, who has an excellent matchup vs the Bulldogs.

I think Pangai can still put up a decent score against the Storm. He’s pressing for an Origin berth, which will provide extra motivation.

Connor Watson has been a frustrating own in recent times due to reduced minutes. He’s still been getting the job done though, with a three round average of 54. I prefer him compared to a few others due to his attacking upside. 

Embed from Getty Images

Next I have Fa’asuamaleaui, who I don’t mind as a play starting at lock. Then Junior Paulo, who’s form has slightly improved recently.

Despite what looks like an okay matchup against the Raiders, I have Sam Walker a fair way down the list. This is due to a dip in form, coinciding with talk of him being rested. He’s shown the ability to put stacks of SuperCoach points on in a short space of time though, so he could turn it around at any time.

I dislike Taukeiaho as a play without the goal-kicking, unless we see more evidence of increased minutes. Liddle then rounds out the list.

Rankings:

RankPlayerEstimated points
1Fisher-Harris65
2Schuster55
3Burton62
4Pangai59
5Watson59
6Fa’asuamaleaui58
7Paulo57
8S Walker*63
9Taukeiaho**53
10Liddle48

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper Floor
Fisher-Harris495858
Schuster354445
Burton233030
Pangai405858
Watson414748
Fa’asuamaleaui465252
Paulo425454
S Walker*121730
Taukeiaho**434747
Liddle363636

*Upper floor adjusted to only reflect goalkicking games

**Excludes goalkicking points

Player Averages:

PlayerSeason Ave3 Rd Avg5 Rd Avg
Fisher-Harris677869
Schuster645961
Burton636658
Pangai696674
Watson605455
Fa’asuamaleaui576351
Paulo596251
S Walker*733679
Taukeiaho**514242
Liddle533749

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1-10 points concededRd 11 points conceded
Fisher-HarrisBulldogsFR6185
SchusterKnightsL/H4280
BurtonBulldogsL/C5991
PangaiStormL/2R4759
WatsonSea EaglesLK5854
Fa’asuamaleauiSharksFR5858
PauloRabbitohsFR5544
S Walker*RaidersR/H5532
Taukeiaho**RaidersFR5460
LiddleDragonsHK4153

CTW

It’s pretty clear at this point that Hynes belongs in the captain’s article rather than this one. However, I’ve included him for interest’s sake. He’s followed by Laurie, due to a favourable matchup for fullbacks vs the Dragons.

I’ve got Reimis Smith high in the rankings due to the matchup vs the Broncos. He’s followed by Nofoaluma who is always a solid play, although the matchup vs the Dragons left-side may not be as favourable as it seems.

It will be interesting to see if David Fifita’s return affects Kelly’s form. I have him in 5th on this list.

FOLLOW OUR TIPS WITH TOPSPORT! We’re striking at well over 100% ROI in our punting previews using exclusive TopSport markets. Track our weekly plays and use the code ‘SCPLAYBOOK’ when signing up.

Staines is next, despite his low floor. He’s also shown a high ceiling in the past, so could well be worth a punt vs the Bulldogs.

I like Sivo as the better play of the two Eels wingers. I have him above Best, who is returning from a hamstring injury.

Blake Ferguson has struggled with Dylan Brown out of the Eels’ side. As such I have Saab ahead of him due to his favourable matchup vs the Knights and form turnaround with Turbo in the side.

Isaako’s stats suggest he should be higher on this list, but I’m sceptical due to the matchup vs the Storm. Simonsson rounds out this list.

Rankings:

RankPlayerEstimated points
1Hynes*98
2Laurie69
3R Smith54
4Nofoaluma51
5Kelly50
6Staines49
7Sivo56
8Best56
9Saab51
10Ferguson43
11Isaako60
12Simonsson35

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper Floor
Hynes*264251
Laurie254243
R Smith263334
Nofoaluma264243
Kelly274040
Staines152021
Sivo212122
Best354141
Saab151920
Ferguson283839
Isaako193040
Simonsson212727

*Starting games, with an estimate added for goalkicking

Player Averages:

PlayerSeason Ave3 Rd Avg5 Rd Avg
Hynes*106139117
Laurie574457
R Smith615277
Nofoaluma627864
Kelly576961
Staines426649
Sivo434377
Best554246
Saab437563
Ferguson573744
Isaako686173
Simonsson344736

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1-10 points concededRd 11 points conceded
Hynes*BroncosFB8997
LaurieDragonsFB80100
R SmithBroncosR/C4843
NofoalumaDragonsR/W3759
KellySharksL/C4439
StainesBulldogsR/W6019
SivoRabbitohsL/W65101
BestSea EaglesL/C5658
SaabKnightsR/W55101
FergusonRabbitohsR/W3112
IsaakoStormFB5514
SimonssonRoostersL/W3189

Good luck with your selections!


[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] https://scplaybook.com.au/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *