Quantium stat analysis: Rd 9, vital numbers to beat the best

Statistics specialist Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 8

Round 8 continued the trend of 2021 with some monster Supercoach scores amongst popular players. Surely it’s just a matter of time until someone posts a big double ton?

Six players owned by at least 10% of teams posted scores of over 100, none more impressive than Sam Walker’s 163. 

Those big scores saw some major moves in the rankings for some teams – especially those who owned Clint Gutherson and Isaiah Papali’i – with many captaining Gutho who managed to post 140 despite an early shower.

Let’s go through the ownership of players in each position after round 8.

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I’ve made a tweak to the regular stats table this week. Previously, I had a column for the top 20,000 teams. I’ve replaced that with the ownership stats for teams ranked from 10,001 to 20,000. 

This should mean that the last two columns (apart from the misleading SC site stats) provide a direct contrast between player ownership levels for the top 10,000 versus the next 10,000 teams. 

So if you are looking to make a move from the second group to the top 10,000 teams it should give you more insight into which players will help you do that the most. A good example is a player like Damien Cook who is owned by 10% of the top 10,000 but by 16% of the next 10,000.

For those who want to understand the ownership for the overall top 20,000 it’s a simple average of those two columns.

Note that I’ve also ordered each table by the ownership percentage amongst the top 10,000 teams as opposed to the SC site ownership.

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Fullback

With the injuries to James Tedesco and Ryan Papenhuyzen over the past fortnight, they have suddenly gone from being owned by almost all teams to being genuine PODs at fullback. 

Less than 20% of the top 100 teams own each of Teddy and Papenhuyzen. I guess that’s not surprising since many of those teams are in the top 100 because they made the trades and were rewarded with big scores from Turbo and Gutherson over the past fortnight. 

As a Teddy owner I just couldn’t bring myself to sell my favourite Supercoach player for $590k. I’m happy to have him running around as a POD.

For the 6% who own Kalyn Ponga, I personally would double down and captain him. He’s a proven Supercoach weapon and at 6% ownership is a massive POD – if he went big and you had him as captain it would be a huge move – and let’s face it – you own him because you think he can go big. If you don’t believe that then trade him now.

CTW

I’ve also made a change to the way I set out the CTW stats this week. I’ve split the table into two – the first being players I think you would actually consider starting (at least if you had them in your 25 in the first place) and the second table comprising cash cows or players that you are likely only starting if you are desperate for numbers.

Personally I think it makes a big difference to how you think about PODs at CTW. Suddenly the four most popular ‘viable’ CTW’s – Daine Laurie, Brian To’o, Kurt Capewell and Blake Ferguson – stand out much clearer. When you overlay long-term injuries to Brett Morris, Corey Thompson and Zac Lomax there is an even bigger gap.

Personally I’m not sold on either Capewell or Ferguson. I own Capewell (with Nofo as my fourth CTW) but I’m tempted to trade him to a round 13 starter like Tyrone Peachey. So to me CTW is one position where there is an opportunity to find a guy you like and take a set against Capewell and Ferguson.  

Looking at the new table, Brian To’o stands out as one player whose ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams is significantly different to the next 10,000. 84% of the top 10,000 own To’o (including almost all of the top 500 teams) and 70% of the next 10,000 teams. Not exactly a POD, but that’s a pretty big difference.

I’ve talked about Brian Kelly before, he remains the player with the biggest difference in relative ownership levels by ranking band. With a 3RA of just 43 though, his owners are being tested!

Looking at the broader CTW ownership stats, Charlie Staines continues to be sold off by teams looking to upgrade. At this stage he will go down as one of the bigger 2021 Supercoach disappointments.

Five-eighth

Josh Schuster is now the most popular five-eighth amongst the top 10,000 teams – and as an owner, he has done nothing to warrant being traded. 

Whilst Connor Watson is ranked second on the table below, realistically only approx. 20% of teams have Watson at five-eighth – the remaining 50%+ have him at hooker.

So most teams are running with Schuster plus one of Cameron Munster, Cody Walker or Jarome Luai. Again, each of those guys are playing well so I suspect most people will be settled at five-eighth until closer to Origin – unless of course an injury occurs! 

Halfback

It doesn’t matter how I show the table for halfback – pretty much every team in the top 20,000 still owns Nathan Cleary and Sam Walker and surely none are considering making an unenforced change anytime soon!   

The bigger question is now whether Sam Walker is a must start in your 17 each week.  Against the Eels? Tough call!

2RF

The big move at 2RF this week was for two players – Josh Curran and Tevita Pangai Jr. Both saw big increases in ownership, and both are currently in the top three most traded in players this week. Fair enough too I guess.

Isaiah Papali’i is now the eighth most popular 2RF amongst the top 20,000 teams – or the equal fifth most popular amongst the top 100 teams. As well as he is playing – and despite the fact he is playing in round 13 – I just don’t see how I can bring him in at a price of $760,000.

I will have to deathride him and hope my new man (and semi-POD) Tohu Harris outscores him.

Big Tino Fa’asuamaleauai is suddenly a POD with half of his owners selling again to leave him at just 17% ownership amongst the top 10,000 teams. 

FRF

Sio Siua Taukeiaho – whose ownership last week reduced from approx. 65% to approx. 50% was sold off again last week and suddenly presents semi-POD value with under 30% ownership. 

Whilst he looks to have lost the goal-kicking duties, I’m assuming the injury to Lindsay Collins opens up the door for bigger minutes to TKO – or at least I’m hoping so as an owner.

Junior Paulo would be causing his owners no end of grief. After a fantastic start, he suddenly has a 3RA of just 36 and is leaking cash. With just 3 offloads in the past 3 weeks – 2 of which were ineffective – he looks to be a sell to me.

HOK

Last round saw a big increase in ownership for Jake Simpkin – whose ownership increased from around 1% to 31% of the top 10,000 teams and 38% for the next 10,000 teams. Most looked like they traded Jacob Liddle out in a direct Wests Tigers swap at hooker.

Harry Grant looks a very juicy POD option to me. It feels like most teams will ultimately be moving to have him in their final 17 so if you could get him in early it could give you a boost if you get the timing right.

Round 8 Captaincy Choices

In a week of big scores, Clint Gutherson was the key mover when it came to captaincy selections. 15% of the top 10,000 teams captained Gutho, but 37% of the top 100 captained Gutho – which is not surprising since for many that’s probably what elevated them to the top 100 in the first place!

So all in all, another week where captaincy choice had a big bearing on your end result. 

So who to captain in Round 9? Cleary will undoubtedly be popular against the Sharks, but as we’ve seen over the past few weeks, those who can jag a captain outside of the most obvious can be rewarded. 

Other options could therefore include Turbo against the Warriors, Fifita against the Tigers and Gutherson against anyone right now. And what about Teddy? He could be a huge captaincy POD and has proven in the past that he can score big against anyone.

Good luck again to everyone in Round 9. Hopefully the Bulldogs can jag a win against the Dragons!   

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