Strategy Playbook: Key SuperCoach tactical considerations 


<p>Each week, strategic thinker Michael Fisher will analyse the trade methods to give you a clearer mind when making your trades.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Should you trade after one round?</strong></h3>



<p>I really have no firm view for or against trading in round 1. Although I do think that many of these trades carry higher risk due to the decision being based on a single round’s sample.</p>



<p>However, they can also be high rewarding due to price changes not yet having set in.</p>



<p>In this regard, another factor to consider is that round 1 scores only impact a player’s price once. This is due to them falling out of the player’s three round rolling average (which determines price changes) after the first lot of price changes post round 3.</p>



<p>Like any good hypothetical, the answer to this question is really ‘it depends’. So, I’ll take a look at several scenarios that SuperCoaches could be faced with this round.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trading OUT an Injured Player</strong></h3>



<p>This one seems like a no-brainer, but I don’t think it’s a must trade every time.</p>



<p>In the circumstance that many SuperCoaches will be faced with regarding Matt Lodge, there could be a case to wait. Lodge is a fringe player in SC 17’s, so holding him in many instances might not hurt overall points tallies.</p>



<p>However, given Angus Crichton’s high ownership and suspension for this round, I imagine many SuperCoaches will need the bench cover.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trading OUT an Underperforming Gun</strong></h3>



<p>This situation stung me last season when I traded out Cameron Murray. In isolation my trade of Murray to Eliesa Katoa looks okay. However, my other trade of Jake Averillo to Esan Marsters, meant that the two trades combined were next to worthless.</p>



<p>Meanwhile, site founder and last season’s runner-up Tim Williams showed plenty of patience with Murray, holding him all season. Tim was duly rewarded with a season average close to Murray’s price.</p>



<p>Such is the risks associated with trading out a Gun.</p>



<p><strong><em><strong><em>GET ONBOARD WITH TOPSPORT!</em></strong> <strong><em>Back your knowledge, and follow our NRL market previews throughout the season. Use the code SCPLAYBOOK when signing up. <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.topsport.com.au/?Referrer=SC%20Playbook" target="_blank">Check them out here ahead of season kick off.</a></em></strong></em></strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="575" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-1948538" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1024x575.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--300x168.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--768x431.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1536x862.jpg 1536w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--2048x1149.jpg 2048w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--640x359.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--1200x673.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TopSport-SC-Playbook-Rugby-2048x1149-No-SuperCoach--800x450.jpg 800w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trading OUT an Underperforming Cheapie/Mid-ranger</strong></h3>



<p>These decisions can be lower impact, given they don’t always involve players in your 17. However, they can be quite challenging to make, as roles of these players (minutes, job security etc.) may be unclear.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trading IN an Under-priced Gun</strong></h3>



<p>This is the scenario I find most interesting for this season. The likes of Junior Paulo ($570.1k) and Latrell Mitchell ($524.6k) look to me to fit squarely in this category.</p>



<p>The risks here may be able to be better assessed in some cases than those for cheapies and mid-price players. For example, with Junior Paulo, the coach was quoted as saying he would play extra minutes. There is now evidence to back that up.</p>



<p>Granted, another round’s evidence would be helpful. Nonetheless, I can see reasonable circumstances where SuperCoaches would be justified to take the risk on trading Paulo in this round. This then allows the use of the two further trades pre-price changes next week.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trading IN an Under-priced ‘Mid’ or ‘Cheapie’</strong></h3>



<p>Another interesting category following round 1. Jayden Brailey ($356.6k) is an attractive trade-in within this category. Another player for whom we have mounting evidence of an increased role.</p>



<p>One problem with these types of players is that you’ll generally need to spend a trade to get the player in, then spend another trade during the season to get the player out. Bye coverage could also be a consideration here.</p>



<p>However, at this early stage in the season it is perhaps unlikely that you’ll hold a mid-price player that long.</p>



<p>Another issue is that many cheapies and mid-price players have questionable job security. An extra round can certainly help SuperCoaches to assess that situation.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A Word on Team Structure</strong></h3>



<p>Getting the right players in the right positions can give your team a key competitive advantage. I analysed this, in terms of the difference between the Guns vs the rest during the pre-season (available <a href="http://13.210.220.211/2021/03/01/positional-analysis-7-key-questions-to-start-the-year/">here</a>).</p>



<p>The guns available in each position will of course continue to evolve. However, I think the analysis from last year still warrant consideration.</p>



<p>One question I posed in the positional write-up was regarding how relevant front-row forwards are in SC this year, given they lack the same ceiling as other positions.</p>



<p>I can see merit in locking in your guns in this position early on in the season, then targeting other positions based on draw and potential to go massive against weaker opposition. &nbsp;</p>



<p>In considering team structure, there are also benefits in making two trades in any given week, as opposed to one. As this can enable you to more easily move where your cash is spent around your side.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trade Matrix</strong></h3>



<p>As I discussed at the beginning of the article, no one situation is the same. So, each trade needs to be taken on its merits. Nonetheless, I’ve analysed the general scenarios in the matrix below. Hopefully this is helpful as a guide.</p>



<p>To go into greater detail, you’d need to determine:</p>



<ol type="1"><li>Who is underperforming in your squad (to trade out);</li><li>Who is under-priced (that you’d like to trade in);</li><li>How much do you expect the players in 1 and 2 above to average for the period your looking at getting the player in for (to determine the possible rewards of the trade);</li><li>How much risk there is of your decision being wrong.</li></ol>



<p>N.B. nrlsupercoachstats.com have a fantastic price change calculator if you want to factor this into your considerations.</p>



<p>I haven’t included injured players in the below, as I consider that trading them out carries little to no risk.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td><strong>Trading OUT: Underperforming Gun</strong></td><td><strong>Trading OUT: Underperforming Mid-price or Cheapie</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>Trading IN: Under-Priced Gun</strong></td><td>High Risk – High Reward &nbsp; Trades in this category carry not only the risk of the perceived under-priced gun not meeting expectations, but also that the underperforming gun averages higher than you were expecting, potentially resulting in a wasted trade. &nbsp;</td><td>Low Risk – High Reward &nbsp; If only all our trades could fit in this category! This is the beauty of cashing in on players once they’ve risen in price, to be able to make genuine upgrades.&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td><strong>Trading IN: Under-Priced ‘Mid’ or ‘Cheapie’</strong></td><td>High Risk – Medium / Low Reward &nbsp; In this category you again face the risks of the gun you traded out averaging higher than you were expecting. Unless the trade-in has the potential to be a gun, then the points gained will also result in a lesser reward. &nbsp;</td><td>Medium / Low Risk – Medium / Low Reward &nbsp; The stakes aren’t as high here, so neither are the risks and rewards. These trades are a necessary part of making money for long-term squad building though.</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>So, there you have it. Plenty to ponder for this round. Hopefully this helps your decision-making.</p>



<p>Good luck for round 2!</p>


Strategy Playbook: Key SuperCoach tactical considerations

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