Matchups Analysis: Brisbane Heat vs Perth Scorchers

Match-ups are vital to SuperCoach success, luckily Fish has put the work in to find the best ones to target and avoid in Round 16.

Stat analysis

It seems like it can be tough to get an edge in the final rounds of BBL Supercoach.

One thing we’ve been talking about on SC Playbook is how to make the most of matchups.

I was able to utilise this to good effect in the opening round of finals, when the Heat leg spinners bamboozled the Strikers.

The most recent round was more difficult to predict, with less clear matchup advantages and the venue (Manuka Oval) also being a key consideration.

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The upcoming round is again being played at Manuka Oval. The Heat vs Thunder game played there was a little lower scoring than expected. The Heat chased down 158 with 5 balls to spare, largely thanks to Sam Heazlett’s 74 no.

Speaking of Heazlett, his inclusion is very handy for the Heat from a matchups point-of-view, as he’s the only left-hander in their batting line-up. This could explain why he’s been moved around the order in the last two games.

The Heat have all the momentum coming into the clash against the Scorchers. The inclusions of Marnus Labuschagne and Mitch Swepson have really sparked them.

Nonetheless, the Scorchers’ line-up is stacked with both bat and ball, resulting in them starting the match as favourites.

The Supercoach implication here is that with only one match in the upcoming round it should be more favourable to stack your team with players who you think will be on the winning side.

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To go more in depth, I’ve taken a look at player matchup data. The key points I’m looking for with the Scorchers is how they handle leg-spin, given they’ll be required to face both Labuschagne and Swepson. There’s intriguing data on this available from cricmetric.com, which I’ve used for this analysis.

The data is a little bit worrying for the Scorchers, with all their batsman bar Liam Livingstone and Josh Inglis less effective at handling leg spin more so than other bowling types over the last three years.

This increases the appeal of Labuschagne, Swepson, Livingstone and Inglis in my opinion.

The matchups also look favourable for right-arm fast bowlers Mark Steketee and Morne Morkel, more so than right-arm medium Ben Laughlin.

I’ve left Xavier Bartlett out of this analysis due to him being subbed out in the last couple of games.

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Table 1 – Scorchers’ batsman vs bowler type (T20s over last 3 years, extracted from cricmetric.com)

OutsAvgSROutsAvgSR
Liam LivingstoneMitch Marsh
Right-arm Fast822.8150.4Right-arm Fast212.5138.9
Right-arm Legspin932.6145.8Right-arm Legspin424.5106.5
Right-arm Medium3232153.8Right-arm Medium1043.5148
All bowler types7628.7142.2All bowler types2431.7135
Jason RoyAshton Turner
Right-arm Fast721.9139.1Right-arm Fast1034141.7
Right-arm Legspin722.4118.9Right-arm Legspin1418.8109.6
Right-arm Medium1631.9132.5Right-arm Medium4233.3130.2
All bowler types5027.7131.4All bowler types11429.6128.8
Colin MunroAaron Hardie
Right-arm Fast541.4116.9Right-arm Fast1228.6
Right-arm Legspin1818135Right-arm Legspin11275
Right-arm Medium3830.7147Right-arm Medium235.5154.3
All bowler types8830.4138.8All bowler types521111.7
Josh InglisJhye Richardson
Right-arm Fast426.2136.4Right-arm Fast0123.1
Right-arm Legspin346.3156.2Right-arm Legspin11173.3
Right-arm Medium1626.6139.7Right-arm Medium350.7176.7
All bowler types2931.7144.3All bowler types923.1147.5

Moving onto the Heat Batsman, who have a left-armer to contend with in Behrendorff and potentially also an off-spinner in Turner (although it could be risky / unlikely that he bowls at Manuka Oval).

Based on the data, the matchup against Lynn is a scary one for Behrendorff, which has me tempted to leave out the in-form quick.

Most of the other matchups look reasonable for the Scorchers’ bowlers. One thing to keep in mind is that cricmetric classifies Andrew Tye and Jason Behrendorff as medium pace.

Table 2 – Heat batsmen vs bowler type (T20s over last 3 years, extracted from cricmetric.com)

OutsAvgSROutsAvgSR
Chris LynnJimmy Peirson
Left-arm Medium758.3158.1Left-arm Medium419155.1
Right-arm Fast1424152.7Right-arm Fast426.5165.6
Right-arm Legspin1923.8113.2Right-arm Legspin32698.7
Right-arm Medium3335.6167.2Right-arm Medium926.6120.1
Right-arm Offspin1123163.2Right-arm Offspin092.3
All bowling types9333144.4All bowling types2230121.1
Joe DenlyLewis Gregory
Left-arm Medium917114.2Left-arm Medium528.6220
Right-arm Fast533.6143.6Right-arm Fast0180
Right-arm Legspin624.8105.7Right-arm Legspin163150
Right-arm Medium1434.6124.7Right-arm Medium2223.3168.4
Right-arm Offspin322.3101.5Right-arm Offspin092.3
All bowling types4629.9126.1All bowling types3527.5158.6
Marnus LabuschagneJoe Burns
Left-arm Medium11794.4Left-arm Medium212.586.2
Right-arm Fast37.7100Right-arm Fast142123.5
Right-arm Legspin225.5121.4Right-arm Legspin234.5104.5
Right-arm Medium231126.5Right-arm Medium914.4130
Right-arm Offspin0117.9Right-arm Offspin212114.3
All bowling types827.1115.4All bowling types1919.3111.2
Sam HeazlettMark Steketee
Left-arm Medium231.5146.5Left-arm Medium00
Right-arm Fast0141.7Right-arm Fast35.3114.3
Right-arm Legspin217121.4Right-arm Legspin25.591.7
Right-arm Medium815.5114.8Right-arm Medium410.5102.4
Right-arm Offspin414.2100Right-arm Offspin1433.3
All bowling types2316.7123.5All bowling types117.895.6

Delving further into Lynn as a key batsman, his career T20 record against the Scorchers’ attack looks pretty good.

His SuperCoach scores of 62 and 86 against the Scorchers this season back this up.

Liam Livingstone could be a sneaky matchup play against Lynn, but it would be a courageous one at Manuka Oval.

Table 3 – Chris Lynn vs Scorchers’ bowlers (Career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)

RunsOutsAvgSR
JA Richardson69169172.5
JP Behrendorff430110.3
AJ Tye109336.3181.7
Fawad Ahmed80240148.1
AM Hardie200333.3
LS Livingstone515125

In terms of bowling matchup stats, I’m interested in how both bowling attacks go against right-handers, with Munro and Heazlett being the only left-handers from each team’s batsman / allrounders.

The strike rates vs right-handers look favourable for all members of the Scorchers’ attack except for Behrendorff and Hardie.

The stats are less favourable for the Heat’s attack, with only Steketee, Morkel and Laughlin (marginally) striking more regularly against right-handers than left-handers.

ScorchersWicketsEconSRHeatWicketsEconSR
Jason BehrendorffMarnus Labuschagne
Left277.2317.9Left55.456.6
Right547.1519.4Right58.8713.8
Total817.1718.9Total107.7610.2
Jhye RichardsonMark Steketee
Left157.4320.4Left109.5820.3
Right527.7215.5Right269.3914
Total677.6416.6Total369.4615.7
Andrew TyeBen Laughlin
Left248.4718.5Left148.3722.9
Right708.1617.4Right398.8522.4
Total948.2417.7Total538.7222.6
Fawad AhmedMitch Swepson
Switch hits13.65Left127.2717.3
Left397.219.2Right197.6323.3
Right886.9818.6Total317.5121
Total1287.0418.7
Aaron HardieMorne Morkel
Left77.868.3Left66.7417.7
Right28.8194Right238.5515.7
Total98.5927.3Total298.1416.1
Liam LivingstoneLewis Gregory
Switch hits07.71Left199.1713.7
Left78.4320.4Right399.2918.5
Right367.7911.8Total589.2617
Total437.9513.4

Verdict

Captaining Lynn should be a serious consideration for SuperCoaches. It’s always a risk captaining a batsman, but in this case, it would be a calculated one.

I imagine Labuschagne will be the most captained player this round, with good reason. The Scorchers record against leg-spinners increases his appeal.

However, this is balanced out by Labuschagne’s bowling record favouring left-handers rather than right-handers. The same goes for Swepson. As a clincher, Labuschagne claimed three wickets and Swepson two wickets the last time they played the Scorchers.

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I also like the matchups for Livingstone, Inglis, Steketee, Morkel, Richardson and Ahmed. On the other hand, the matchups decrease the appeal of Behrendorff, Hardie, Roy, Munro, Turner, Denly and Laughlin as selections for this round in my opinion.

Finally, as a word of caution, this is only one way of looking at your SuperCoach selections. Other key variables such as venue, form etc. also need to be considered.

Good luck with your selections and enjoy the final two games of the season!

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