Matchups Analysis: Brisbane Heat vs Perth Scorchers

It seems like it can be tough to get an edge in the final rounds of BBL Supercoach.

One thing we’ve been talking about on SC Playbook is how to make the most of matchups.

I was able to utilise this to good effect in the opening round of finals, when the Heat leg spinners bamboozled the Strikers.

The most recent round was more difficult to predict, with less clear matchup advantages and the venue (Manuka Oval) also being a key consideration.

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The upcoming round is again being played at Manuka Oval. The Heat vs Thunder game played there was a little lower scoring than expected. The Heat chased down 158 with 5 balls to spare, largely thanks to Sam Heazlett’s 74 no.

Speaking of Heazlett, his inclusion is very handy for the Heat from a matchups point-of-view, as he’s the only left-hander in their batting line-up. This could explain why he’s been moved around the order in the last two games.

The Heat have all the momentum coming into the clash against the Scorchers. The inclusions of Marnus Labuschagne and Mitch Swepson have really sparked them.

Nonetheless, the Scorchers’ line-up is stacked with both bat and ball, resulting in them starting the match as favourites.

The Supercoach implication here is that with only one match in the upcoming round it should be more favourable to stack your team with players who you think will be on the winning side.

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To go more in depth, I’ve taken a look at player matchup data. The key points I’m looking for with the Scorchers is how they handle leg-spin, given they’ll be required to face both Labuschagne and Swepson. There’s intriguing data on this available from cricmetric.com, which I’ve used for this analysis.

The data is a little bit worrying for the Scorchers, with all their batsman bar Liam Livingstone and Josh Inglis less effective at handling leg spin more so than other bowling types over the last three years.

This increases the appeal of Labuschagne, Swepson, Livingstone and Inglis in my opinion.

The matchups also look favourable for right-arm fast bowlers Mark Steketee and Morne Morkel, more so than right-arm medium Ben Laughlin.

I’ve left Xavier Bartlett out of this analysis due to him being subbed out in the last couple of games.

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Table 1 – Scorchers’ batsman vs bowler type (T20s over last 3 years, extracted from cricmetric.com)

	Outs	Avg	SR			Outs	Avg	SR
Liam Livingstone					Mitch Marsh
Right-arm Fast	8	22.8	150.4		Right-arm Fast	2	12.5	138.9
Right-arm Legspin	9	32.6	145.8		Right-arm Legspin	4	24.5	106.5
Right-arm Medium	32	32	153.8		Right-arm Medium	10	43.5	148
All bowler types	76	28.7	142.2		All bowler types	24	31.7	135
Jason Roy					Ashton Turner
Right-arm Fast	7	21.9	139.1		Right-arm Fast	10	34	141.7
Right-arm Legspin	7	22.4	118.9		Right-arm Legspin	14	18.8	109.6
Right-arm Medium	16	31.9	132.5		Right-arm Medium	42	33.3	130.2
All bowler types	50	27.7	131.4		All bowler types	114	29.6	128.8
Colin Munro					Aaron Hardie
Right-arm Fast	5	41.4	116.9		Right-arm Fast	1	2	28.6
Right-arm Legspin	18	18	135		Right-arm Legspin	1	12	75
Right-arm Medium	38	30.7	147		Right-arm Medium	2	35.5	154.3
All bowler types	88	30.4	138.8		All bowler types	5	21	111.7
Josh Inglis					Jhye Richardson
Right-arm Fast	4	26.2	136.4		Right-arm Fast	0	–	123.1
Right-arm Legspin	3	46.3	156.2		Right-arm Legspin	1	11	73.3
Right-arm Medium	16	26.6	139.7		Right-arm Medium	3	50.7	176.7
All bowler types	29	31.7	144.3		All bowler types	9	23.1	147.5

Moving onto the Heat Batsman, who have a left-armer to contend with in Behrendorff and potentially also an off-spinner in Turner (although it could be risky / unlikely that he bowls at Manuka Oval).

Based on the data, the matchup against Lynn is a scary one for Behrendorff, which has me tempted to leave out the in-form quick.

Most of the other matchups look reasonable for the Scorchers’ bowlers. One thing to keep in mind is that cricmetric classifies Andrew Tye and Jason Behrendorff as medium pace.

Table 2 – Heat batsmen vs bowler type (T20s over last 3 years, extracted from cricmetric.com)

	Outs	Avg	SR			Outs	Avg	SR
Chris Lynn					Jimmy Peirson
Left-arm Medium	7	58.3	158.1		Left-arm Medium	4	19	155.1
Right-arm Fast	14	24	152.7		Right-arm Fast	4	26.5	165.6
Right-arm Legspin	19	23.8	113.2		Right-arm Legspin	3	26	98.7
Right-arm Medium	33	35.6	167.2		Right-arm Medium	9	26.6	120.1
Right-arm Offspin	11	23	163.2		Right-arm Offspin	0	–	92.3
All bowling types	93	33	144.4		All bowling types	22	30	121.1
Joe Denly					Lewis Gregory
Left-arm Medium	9	17	114.2		Left-arm Medium	5	28.6	220
Right-arm Fast	5	33.6	143.6		Right-arm Fast	0	–	180
Right-arm Legspin	6	24.8	105.7		Right-arm Legspin	1	63	150
Right-arm Medium	14	34.6	124.7		Right-arm Medium	22	23.3	168.4
Right-arm Offspin	3	22.3	101.5		Right-arm Offspin	0	–	92.3
All bowling types	46	29.9	126.1		All bowling types	35	27.5	158.6
Marnus Labuschagne					Joe Burns
Left-arm Medium	1	17	94.4		Left-arm Medium	2	12.5	86.2
Right-arm Fast	3	7.7	100		Right-arm Fast	1	42	123.5
Right-arm Legspin	2	25.5	121.4		Right-arm Legspin	2	34.5	104.5
Right-arm Medium	2	31	126.5		Right-arm Medium	9	14.4	130
Right-arm Offspin	0	–	117.9		Right-arm Offspin	2	12	114.3
All bowling types	8	27.1	115.4		All bowling types	19	19.3	111.2
Sam Heazlett					Mark Steketee
Left-arm Medium	2	31.5	146.5		Left-arm Medium	0	–	0
Right-arm Fast	0	–	141.7		Right-arm Fast	3	5.3	114.3
Right-arm Legspin	2	17	121.4		Right-arm Legspin	2	5.5	91.7
Right-arm Medium	8	15.5	114.8		Right-arm Medium	4	10.5	102.4
Right-arm Offspin	4	14.2	100		Right-arm Offspin	1	4	33.3
All bowling types	23	16.7	123.5		All bowling types	11	7.8	95.6

Delving further into Lynn as a key batsman, his career T20 record against the Scorchers’ attack looks pretty good.

His SuperCoach scores of 62 and 86 against the Scorchers this season back this up.

Liam Livingstone could be a sneaky matchup play against Lynn, but it would be a courageous one at Manuka Oval.

Table 3 – Chris Lynn vs Scorchers’ bowlers (Career T20s, extracted from cricmetric.com)

	Runs	Outs	Avg	SR
JA Richardson	69	1	69	172.5
JP Behrendorff	43	0	–	110.3
AJ Tye	109	3	36.3	181.7
Fawad Ahmed	80	2	40	148.1
AM Hardie	20	0	–	333.3
LS Livingstone	5	1	5	125

In terms of bowling matchup stats, I’m interested in how both bowling attacks go against right-handers, with Munro and Heazlett being the only left-handers from each team’s batsman / allrounders.

The strike rates vs right-handers look favourable for all members of the Scorchers’ attack except for Behrendorff and Hardie.

The stats are less favourable for the Heat’s attack, with only Steketee, Morkel and Laughlin (marginally) striking more regularly against right-handers than left-handers.

Scorchers	Wickets	Econ	SR		Heat	Wickets	Econ	SR
Jason Behrendorff					Marnus Labuschagne
Left	27	7.23	17.9		Left	5	5.45	6.6
Right	54	7.15	19.4		Right	5	8.87	13.8
Total	81	7.17	18.9		Total	10	7.76	10.2
Jhye Richardson					Mark Steketee
Left	15	7.43	20.4		Left	10	9.58	20.3
Right	52	7.72	15.5		Right	26	9.39	14
Total	67	7.64	16.6		Total	36	9.46	15.7
Andrew Tye					Ben Laughlin
Left	24	8.47	18.5		Left	14	8.37	22.9
Right	70	8.16	17.4		Right	39	8.85	22.4
Total	94	8.24	17.7		Total	53	8.72	22.6
Fawad Ahmed					Mitch Swepson
Switch hits	1	3.6	5		Left	12	7.27	17.3
Left	39	7.2	19.2		Right	19	7.63	23.3
Right	88	6.98	18.6		Total	31	7.51	21
Total	128	7.04	18.7
Aaron Hardie					Morne Morkel
Left	7	7.86	8.3		Left	6	6.74	17.7
Right	2	8.81	94		Right	23	8.55	15.7
Total	9	8.59	27.3		Total	29	8.14	16.1
Liam Livingstone					Lewis Gregory
Switch hits	0	7.71	–		Left	19	9.17	13.7
Left	7	8.43	20.4		Right	39	9.29	18.5
Right	36	7.79	11.8		Total	58	9.26	17
Total	43	7.95	13.4

Verdict

Captaining Lynn should be a serious consideration for SuperCoaches. It’s always a risk captaining a batsman, but in this case, it would be a calculated one.

I imagine Labuschagne will be the most captained player this round, with good reason. The Scorchers record against leg-spinners increases his appeal.

However, this is balanced out by Labuschagne’s bowling record favouring left-handers rather than right-handers. The same goes for Swepson. As a clincher, Labuschagne claimed three wickets and Swepson two wickets the last time they played the Scorchers.

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I also like the matchups for Livingstone, Inglis, Steketee, Morkel, Richardson and Ahmed. On the other hand, the matchups decrease the appeal of Behrendorff, Hardie, Roy, Munro, Turner, Denly and Laughlin as selections for this round in my opinion.

Finally, as a word of caution, this is only one way of looking at your SuperCoach selections. Other key variables such as venue, form etc. also need to be considered.

Good luck with your selections and enjoy the final two games of the season!