Stat analysis: Vital numbers to beat the best, RD 18

Statistics wizard Adam Driussi provides invaluable breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.

Stat analysis

Analysing the top 20,000 teams after Round 17

With just three weeks to go it is make-or-break time in SuperCoach. 

For those playing H2H, for those teams not already out, we are now firmly in knock-out mode. 

For those playing overall, there is precious little time to make up ground on the leaders.

And injuries continue to cause havoc amongst teams. Once again, a bunch of key players are out this week which will cause all sorts of challenges for teams. 

Let’s look at some of the key changes to team ownership by position and ranking zone after Round 17 and try and find a way through the final few weeks.   

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Fullback

As per previous weeks, the table below sets out the percentage of teams ranked in the top 100, top 500, top 1,000, top 10,000 and top 20,000 teams that own each fullback and contrast that with the ownership levels as per the SuperCoach site – again ordered by 5RA. 

The big news at FLB of course, is the resting of Kalyn Ponga and Ryan Papenhuyzen. 

The result is that almost every team in the top 5,000 is down a gun FLB this week. What to do? 

On one hand, it is a huge number of dollars to be leaving on the pine in a key position. On the other, both players are likely back next week with attractive draws.  

Personally, I am still undecided. Looking at the most popular trades, Ponga and Papenhuyzen are the most and fifth most traded players out overall – so many teams are looking for the points in a critical week. 

Fair enough – I just hate the idea of not having Ponga for clashes against the Dragons and Gold Coast in Round 19 and 20.

CTW and dual FLB/CTW

Last week was all about the Panthers at CTW. Isaah Yeo’s injury saw his ownership amongst the top 20,000 teams fall from 98% to 65% – a huge reduction for a one week injury.

Not surprisingly, those that sold Yeo flocked to his Panthers teammates.

Brian To’o came in for the most attention. A massive 37% of the top 1,000 teams and 27% of the top 20,000 teams now own To’o compared to just 1% this time last week.

This compares to his overall ownership level according to the SuperCoach site of 8%.

Josh Mansour also received plenty of love. Mansour’s ownership increased from 37% to 52% amongst the top 20,000 teams. I’ve owned the Sauce since round one and he’s been gold all year – great to see him back.

Speaking of Brians, you have to feel for Brian Kelly’s new owners. 

Whilst not large in percentage terms, Kelly’s ownership doubled last week from 2% to 4%… only for him to go down injured and score a measly 3 points against the Bulldogs. Ouch. 

It could be worse though. One poor bugger in the top 1,000 captained Brian Kelly. 

Remarkably that team (UtahPanther) still managed to post a very respectable 1,426 points in Round 17. 

If they had instead captained Teddy, they would have scored a monstrous 1,555 and would now be 128th instead of 529th.

In addition to Yeo, the other CTW sold off during the week was Latrell Mitchell. His ownership fell from 11% to 1%, whilst Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow’s ownership reduced from 32% to 27%.

Halves

With SJ and Dylan Brown not playing last week, there was plenty of action in the halves this week.

SJ’s ownership amongst the top 20,000 teams reduced from 74% to 35% and from 89% to 51% amongst the top 100 teams.

Dylan Brown’s ownership reduced from 17% of the top 20,000 teams to 5%.

So, who did they buy?

The prime targets were Cameron Munster and Alexander Brimson. Munster’s ownership increased from 48% to 79% amongst the top 100 teams, whilst Brimson’s ownership amongst the top 100 increased from 2% to 29% this week – both huge increases.

The POD move of the week (as discussed on the podcast last week) was Daly Cherry-Evans. 

Despite DCE picking up the goal-kicking, his ownership only increased from 5% to 6% across the top 20,000 teams and remained flat at 2% amongst the top 100 teams.

Talk about a missed opportunity, with DCE going on to score 114 and now facing the Bulldogs…

The other two halves to attract some interest last week were Jarome Luai (+3%) and Kyle Flanagan (+2%).

2RF

There was actually minimal trade action to report on last week at 2RF. The only real change of any note was Jason Taumalolo’s remaining owners selling out. As an example, his ownership amongst the top 100 teams fell from 19% to 3%.

It would appear that sellers moved some players around and brought in Payne Haas at FRF. 

The only 2RF with any noticeable increase in ownership amongst the top 100 teams was Viliame Kikau, whose ownership increased from 2% to 5%.

Mitch Barnett’s owners are in a bind this week. 17% of the top 100 own Barnett and given they all also own either Ponga or Papenhuyzen, that’s a lot of money to be sitting on the pine with just three weeks remaining. Ouch.

FRF

FRF was all about Payne Haas last week. His ownership amongst the top 20,000 teams increased from 67% to 80% and from 58% to 91% amongst the top 100 teams! 

Haas didn’t disappoint either, posting a huge 89 points in 80 minutes. I see that he is currently the most traded in player this week – fair enough too. He’s no POD but do you really want to be going up against him in a H2H clash?

On the other hand, Toby Rudolf’s ownership reduced by 6%.

HOK

There was less activity at HOK last week relative to previous weeks. The main action was approximately 5% of teams selling Harry Grant and bringing in either Cameron Smith or Damien Cook.

Round 17 Captaincy Choices

Round 17 saw some monster scores and bold captaincy moves.

Approximately 40% of teams captained Teddy and would have been chuffed with his score of 132 against the Raiders. 

Just under 50% captained Nathan Cleary and would have been disappointed with his score of 73 – especially when so many alternatives then went ballistic.

Approximately 5% of the leading teams captained Ponga and were rewarded hugely with a score of 158. Gee he can score big when he plays well. 

You have to feel for the 2% of teams that went for the POD move in David Nofoaluma – they scored a huge 120 yet were still outscored by the 50% of teams who went with either Teddy or Ponga – tough school!

While the Roosters and Storm have mouth-watering match ups this week, I imagine Teddy will dominate captaincy choices and teams looking for a bold move will look for the likes of Smith, Munster or even DCE against my Bulldogs. Even AJ Brimson could attract interest against the Broncos?

Good luck again to everyone in Round 18 – but in particular the Cooma Stallions in 14th place. A top 10 finish is still tantalisingly close!

For those who want to get these stats on Twitter, feel free to follow me here @adamdriussi.

DISCOUNT! Prices have dropped to just $10 for our NRL SuperCoach subscription package. Help support the future of the site by signing up to SC Playbook for extra weekly content and access to our subscriber special podcast.

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