NBA Supercoach | What Preseason Actually Told Us


<p>Nobody should pick a team off preseason points. Stars play 18 minutes and sit, rookies play 28 because the coach wants a look, and half the box scores come from fourth quarters full of two-way guys. So I threw the raw numbers out.</p>



<p>Instead, I ran every preseason box score through SuperCoach scoring and divided by minutes played. That gives each player&#8217;s SC points per minute. It&#8217;s the closest thing we have to how productive a player is when he&#8217;s on the floor, whatever his minutes were.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="819" height="1024" src="http://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-819x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2406822" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-819x1024.png 819w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-240x300.png 240w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-768x960.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-640x800.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The method</strong></h2>



<p>This version uses the final preseason box score totals from NBA.com, covering every game for every player. I matched 281 SuperCoach-priced players who got on the floor, most of them with 40 to 136 minutes. For each one, I calculated SC points per minute: points, rebounds, and assists, plus two for every steal and block, minus every missed shot and turnover, all divided by minutes.</p>



<p>Then I turned that into the number that matters for SuperCoach, break-even minutes. Take a player&#8217;s price, divide by $654k to get the average the game has priced in, and divide that by his per-minute rate. That&#8217;s how many minutes a game he needs at his preseason rate to justify his price. If he&#8217;s already playing well above it, he&#8217;s underpriced.</p>



<p>For established players, I also compared their preseason rate with last season&#8217;s regular-season rate. That&#8217;s where the overperformers and underperformers show up.</p>



<p>One caveat before the numbers. Two to six games is a small sample. A hot shooting night swings the rate a lot. Treat a big preseason rate as a reason to look closer, not as a projection.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The cheapies: minutes to spare</strong></h2>



<p>This is the chart I&#8217;d show anyone still deciding on cheapies. The grey dot is how many minutes a game each one needs, at his preseason scoring rate, to be worth his price. The blue dot is how many he&#8217;s actually getting.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="684" src="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-1024x684.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2406864" style="width:771px;height:auto" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-1024x684.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-300x200.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-768x513.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-640x428.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5-1200x802.png 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-5.png 1344w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p><em>NBA.com 2026-27 preseason box score totals (final), run through SuperCoach scoring; prices from the SuperCoach NBA game</em></p>



<p>Every cheapie on the chart is getting more preseason minutes than he needs, but the size of the gap is the story.</p>



<p><strong>Aday Mara (OKC, C, $4.70M)</strong> finished at 1.03 SC points a minute across five games. Among players with real minutes, that&#8217;s above Jokic&#8217;s preseason rate (0.96). He averaged 7.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks in 23 minutes a game and shot 79% from the floor. The question is whether OKC gives a rookie centre real minutes in the regular season behind Hartenstein and Holmgren. At 1.03 a minute, even 12 minutes a game comes close to doubling what his price asks for.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yaxel Lendeborg over the last 4 games:<br><br>17 PTS &#8211; 9 REB &#8211; 2 AST &#8211; 7/11 FGM<br>23 PTS &#8211; 10 REB &#8211; 6 AST &#8211; 10/14 FGM<br>17 PTS &#8211; 5 REB &#8211; 4 AST &#8211; 5/11 FGM<br>17 PTS &#8211; 4 REB &#8211; 5 AST &#8211; 6/9 FGM<br><br>🔥 <a href="https://t.co/vglgJ0tdva">pic.twitter.com/vglgJ0tdva</a></p>&mdash; Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) <a href="https://x.com/TheHoopCentral/status/2111317169179070951?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p><strong>Yaxel Lendeborg (GSW, SF/PF, $4.75M)</strong> is the other standout. He held 1.04 a minute across five games, with 7.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists. He&#8217;s already in 57% of teams, and this is why.</p>



<p><strong>Moritz Wagner (BKN, PF/C, $5.06M)</strong> is the veteran version. He cooled to 0.76 a minute over four games but still only needs 10 minutes and has been getting 19 in a Brooklyn frontcourt with Claxton gone. He&#8217;s in 27% of teams.</p>



<p>The full box scores also bring in two rookies who weren&#8217;t in my first cut. <strong>Brayden Burries (MIL, $4.80M)</strong> ran at 0.77 a minute and <strong>Cameron Boozer (MEM, $5.15M)</strong> at 0.80. Both need under 10 minutes a game and got 20 or more. Boozer got to the line six times a game. Burries had ten steals in four games.</p>



<p>At the other end, <strong>Caleb Wilson (CHI, $5.10M)</strong> is still the warning sign. He&#8217;s played nearly 27 minutes a game, as much as any top-five pick, but produced only 0.48 SC points a minute. He shot 43% with 3.4 turnovers a game. He&#8217;s in 52% of teams. He clears his break-even of 16 minutes because his price is so low, but he&#8217;s not on track to be a cash cow that funds anything big.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The vets: who&#8217;s up, who&#8217;s down</strong></h2>



<p>For established players, the more useful comparison is this preseason&#8217;s per-minute rate against last regular season&#8217;s. If you then multiply the preseason rate by last season&#8217;s minutes, you get a rough view of what a full role looks like at this preseason form.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th>Player</th><th>Price</th><th>Preseason SC/min</th><th>2025-26 SC/min</th><th>Change</th><th>Preseason rate × 2025-26 minutes</th><th>Priced at</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Franz Wagner (ORL)</td><td>$13.82M</td><td>1.06</td><td>0.70</td><td>+0.35</td><td>31.7</td><td>21.1</td></tr><tr><td>Cooper Flagg (DAL)</td><td>$15.62M</td><td>1.04</td><td>0.72</td><td>+0.32</td><td>34.9</td><td>23.9</td></tr><tr><td>Ivica Zubac (IND)</td><td>$14.62M</td><td>1.07</td><td>0.75</td><td>+0.31</td><td>32.1</td><td>22.4</td></tr><tr><td>Scottie Barnes (TOR)</td><td>$17.77M</td><td>1.04</td><td>0.81</td><td>+0.23</td><td>34.7</td><td>27.2</td></tr><tr><td>Michael Porter Jr. (BKN)</td><td>$15.84M</td><td>0.96</td><td>0.75</td><td>+0.21</td><td>31.1</td><td>24.2</td></tr><tr><td>Julius Randle (BKN)</td><td>$15.29M</td><td>0.76</td><td>0.71</td><td>+0.05</td><td>25.0</td><td>23.4</td></tr><tr><td>Josh Giddey (CHI)</td><td>$16.71M</td><td>0.64</td><td>0.79</td><td>−0.15</td><td>20.6</td><td>25.6</td></tr><tr><td>Kel&#8217;el Ware (MIL)</td><td>$12.81M</td><td>0.62</td><td>0.89</td><td>−0.26</td><td>13.8</td><td>19.6</td></tr><tr><td>Nikola Jokic (DEN)</td><td>$28.07M</td><td>0.96</td><td>1.24</td><td>−0.28</td><td>33.4</td><td>42.9</td></tr><tr><td>Evan Mobley (CLE)</td><td>$16.98M</td><td>0.51</td><td>0.81</td><td>−0.30</td><td>16.4</td><td>26.0</td></tr><tr><td>Trae Young (WAS)</td><td>$12.98M</td><td>0.44</td><td>0.77</td><td>−0.33</td><td>11.2</td><td>19.8</td></tr><tr><td>Devin Booker (PHX)</td><td>$15.45M</td><td>0.37</td><td>0.71</td><td>−0.34</td><td>12.4</td><td>23.6</td></tr><tr><td>Zion Williamson (NOP)</td><td>$15.46M</td><td>0.40</td><td>0.80</td><td>−0.40</td><td>11.8</td><td>23.6</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>The full box scores add a new top tier of risers.</strong> Franz Wagner, Cooper Flagg and Ivica Zubac all finished above 1.0 a minute, each more than 0.3 up on last season. Wagner was running the offence at six assists a game. Zubac had eight rebounds a game in 19 minutes for Indiana. Flagg got to the line seven times a game. At last season&#8217;s minutes, all three would be scoring about 10 points above their price. Franz is the one I&#8217;d look at hardest at $13.82M, with one caveat: he only played 34 games last year.</p>



<p><strong>Michael Porter Jr. is still the midrange overperformer.</strong> He&#8217;s producing 0.96 SC points a minute, up from 0.75, as Brooklyn&#8217;s main scorer next to Randle. At his preseason rate over last season&#8217;s 32.5 minutes, he&#8217;d be a 31-point player priced at 24. Some of that is shooting (59% from the field in three games), and it won&#8217;t all hold. But even half of that gain makes him a midrange buy.</p>



<p><strong>The Brooklyn pair are both trending up.</strong> Randle&#8217;s rate is a touch above last season&#8217;s, with 4.8 assists a game as the new featured creator. Together with MPJ, that&#8217;s two Nets players beating their prices.</p>



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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The next breakout is usually hiding in the minutes.<br><br>Last season&#39;s best per-minute young players who played under 24 a night, ranked by BPM (points added per 100 possessions vs an average player).<br><br>Kel&#39;el Ware: 11.1 and 9.0 in 22 minutes. Now he&#39;s in Milwaukee. <a href="https://t.co/e5GZsdTnou">pic.twitter.com/e5GZsdTnou</a></p>&mdash; Perry Sopinsky (@PerryBrackets) <a href="https://x.com/PerryBrackets/status/2111829373108318644?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p><strong>Kel&#8217;el Ware is the one to watch carefully.</strong> He was last season&#8217;s per-minute darling at 0.89. In Milwaukee, he finished at 0.62, and the main reason is his shot. He took 4.4 threes a game and made 23% of them. His rebounding (6.8 a game in 24 minutes) and blocks are still there. If Milwaukee stops letting him jack threes, the rate comes back. If they don&#8217;t, his price is too high.</p>



<p><strong>Trae, Booker, Zion, and Mobley are the preseason underperformers.</strong> All four finished well below last season&#8217;s rate. With Trae, it&#8217;s turnovers: 20 in four games, on only 6.8 shots a game. Booker went 13 of 37 from the field and 2 of 16 from three. Zion&#8217;s rate halved, partly from 5 of 11 at the line. Mobley shot 41%. Giddey slipped too, taking six shots a game and leaning on his passing. This is the part of preseason I trust least, because established players coast. But if you were on the fence about any of them, it&#8217;s not a nudge in their favour.</p>



<p>And Jokic? He finished at 0.96 a minute, down from 1.24. He played 20.6 minutes a game and still had 36 assists in five games. I wouldn&#8217;t read a thing into it.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Per-minute monsters on the bench</strong></h2>



<p>These players are producing at an elite rate in limited minutes. None of them is a set-and-forget pick, but any of them becomes one the moment his minutes jump.</p>



<p><strong>Kyshawn George (WAS, SF, $11.96M)</strong> finished at 0.91 SC points per minute. He scored 15.3 points a game on 66% shooting, with five steals and six blocks across four games. He&#8217;s priced at 18.3 and played 24 minutes a game. At 0.91, he needs about 20 minutes to be worth his price.</p>



<p><strong>Charles Bassey (GSW, C, $7.14M)</strong> finished at 0.99 a minute over six games, with 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 blocks a game in 16 minutes. He&#8217;s behind Porzingis and Horford on the depth chart, so this is a watch-list name, not a starter. If either big man goes down, he&#8217;s one of the cheapest centre upgrades in the game.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rui Hachimura in 15 MINUTES in his preseason debut for the Clippers 🔥<br><br>🔸21 PTS<br>🔸5 REB<br>🔸1 BLK<br>🔸73% FG<br>🔸80% 3PT <a href="https://t.co/YvezOI12GG">pic.twitter.com/YvezOI12GG</a></p>&mdash; Basketball Forever (@bballforever_) <a href="https://x.com/bballforever_/status/2106918004294631820?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 5, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p><strong>Rui Hachimura (LAC, SF/PF, $7.98M)</strong> is the new name here. He finished at 0.90 a minute across three games, with 51 points on 52% shooting and eight threes. He needs about 14 minutes a game to pay his price, and he&#8217;s expected to start at power forward. Most of that rate is hot shooting, because Rui doesn&#8217;t rebound, assist, or create much. But even if it halves, a starter&#8217;s minutes clear his price.</p>



<p>Two more names are worth noting, though I don&#8217;t have their prices in my data. Joan Beringer at Minnesota (0.76 a minute, 6.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in 19 minutes) and Tarris Reed Jr. at San Antonio (0.86, 9.2 rebounds in 17 minutes) are both rookie bigs. Neither will start, but both are the sort of bench player who can cover a big-man week.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Where I&#8217;m landing</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Buy.</strong> Aday Mara is the cheapest points-per-minute bet in the game. He needs seven minutes a night to pay his price, and he got 23. If you need a bench C who makes cash, it&#8217;s him. Yaxel Lendeborg is already in 57% of teams, and the full preseason backs that up, so don&#8217;t overthink him. Moritz Wagner at 27% owned is the one I&#8217;d push hardest. He cooled to 0.76 a minute, but he only needs 10 minutes and was getting 19. Burries and Boozer join that group too.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Franz Wagner in 4 preseason games:<br><br>🔷11 PTS | 6 AST | 19 MIN | 4/7 FG<br>🔷20 PTS | 8 AST | 22 MIN | 7/10 FG<br>🔷10 PTS | 3 AST | 15 MIN | 4/7 FG<br>🔷6 PTS | 7 AST | 14 MIN | 2/7 FG<br><br>What jumps out to you? 👀 <a href="https://t.co/5uxir83AsK">pic.twitter.com/5uxir83AsK</a></p>&mdash; SleeperMagic (@SleeperOrlando) <a href="https://x.com/SleeperOrlando/status/2111479524634300460?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p><strong>Buy if the cash works.</strong> Franz Wagner is the biggest riser in the midrange, at 1.06 a minute and priced at 21. Durability is the only thing stopping me from calling him a must-have. Michael Porter Jr. is up 0.21 per minute on last season, and he&#8217;s priced like the old version. Kyshawn George is the bench option I keep coming back to: at 0.91 a minute, 20 minutes pays for him. Rui Hachimura at $7.98M is a cheap starter with a cushion.</p>



<p><strong>Watch.</strong> Kel&#8217;el Ware&#8217;s shooting is a problem until the threes stop clanging. Trae, Booker, Zion, and Mobley I&#8217;m putting down to preseason rust, not reasons to sell. But none of them earned a spot on my team this week.</p>



<p><strong>Be careful.</strong> Caleb Wilson is in 52% of teams, and he finished at 0.48 per minute, near the bottom of the cheapies. The minutes are real, so he&#8217;ll probably still make money. But he needs 16 minutes a night to pay his price. Mara needs seven. If you&#8217;re picking one of them, that gap should decide it.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The fine print</strong></h2>



<p>It&#8217;s preseason. Samples are two to six games, starters sit fourth quarters, and some guys are clearly coasting. A per-minute rate built on 40 to 136 minutes will bounce around. That&#8217;s why I&#8217;ve leaned on break-even minutes. It doesn&#8217;t ask you to guess the rotation. It just asks how much floor time a player needs to earn his price, and whether he&#8217;s been getting it.</p>



<p>Treat this as a tiebreaker, not gospel. If two players are close on schedule and price, take the one with the better rate and more minutes to spare.</p>


NBA Supercoach | What Preseason Actually Told Us

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