NBA Supercoach | Don't sell the premiums


<p>Every one of the big four premiums went unders in Week 1. Luka, Giannis, Shai, and Wemby all finished below their break-evens, and three of them dropped in price. If you own all four, Week 1 felt like you&#8217;d paid full price for a discount week.</p>



<p>This is the case for holding them. And for Wemby, Shai, and Luka in particular, the case is that the next few weeks are where they make it back.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Three games is noise</strong></h3>



<p>Start with how far each of them fell short of what they did across a full season last year.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th>Player</th><th>Week 1 per game</th><th>2025-26 average</th><th>Gap</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Luka Doncic</td><td>33.3</td><td>36.1</td><td>−2.8</td></tr><tr><td>Giannis Antetokounmpo</td><td>28.3</td><td>33.1</td><td>−4.8</td></tr><tr><td>Shai Gilgeous-Alexander</td><td>27.7</td><td>34.5</td><td>−6.8</td></tr><tr><td>Victor Wembanyama</td><td>26.7</td><td>36.1</td><td>−9.4</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>I want to be straight about what that does and doesn&#8217;t mean. A bad week doesn&#8217;t make a good week more likely in itself. Players don&#8217;t owe you points. What it does mean is that Week 1 is a terrible guide to what comes next.</p>



<p>This is regression to the mean. Three games is a tiny sample, and over three games even elite players swing wildly. One blowout where a star sits the fourth quarter, one foul-out, one cold shooting night, and the weekly number looks nothing like the player. Over 60-plus games last season, those nights averaged out to the numbers in that middle column. The best estimate of what Wemby does next week isn&#8217;t 26.7 a game. It&#8217;s something much closer to 36.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="819" height="1024" src="http://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-819x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2406822" style="width:565px;height:auto" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-819x1024.png 819w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-240x300.png 240w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-768x960.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal-640x800.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NBAFixturesfinal.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What last season says</strong></h3>



<p>I went back through every game last season for four of the premiums, Shai, Wemby, Luka, and Jokic, and split them into SuperCoach weeks. Then I looked at every week where one of them came in at least 10% below his own season average, and what he did the very next week.</p>



<p>There were 12 of those dip weeks. Here&#8217;s what happened next, compared with their normal weeks and their hot weeks.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th>Type of week</th><th>Weeks</th><th>That week (vs season average)</th><th>Next week (vs season average)</th><th>Next week better?</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Dip (10%+ below)</td><td>12</td><td>83%</td><td>98%</td><td>10 of 12</td></tr><tr><td>Normal</td><td>48</td><td>99%</td><td>99%</td><td>24 of 48</td></tr><tr><td>Hot (10%+ above)</td><td>17</td><td>119%</td><td>102%</td><td>1 of 17</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>That&#8217;s the whole argument in one table. After a dip, they went straight back to about their usual level. Ten of the 12 dip weeks were followed by a better week, and on average the next week was 15 percentage points higher. After a hot week, the opposite happened: 16 of 17 were followed by a worse one.</p>



<p>By player, the bounce-backs were clear:</p>



<ul>
<li><strong>Jokic</strong> had four dip weeks. All four were followed by a better week, and on average he went straight back to his season level.</li>



<li><strong>Shai</strong> had two. Both times the following week was not just better but above his season average.</li>



<li><strong>Wemby</strong> had five, the most of the group, which fits his blowout-heavy minutes. Three of the five were followed by a better week.</li>



<li><strong>Luka</strong> only had one, and he bounced back from it too.</li>
</ul>



<p>One honest caveat. The data says premiums return to normal after a dip, not that they overshoot. Only four of the 12 bounce-back weeks finished above season average. But from a Week 1 that sat 8 to 26% below average, a return to normal is a big jump in points, and with four-game weeks coming, a big jump.</p>



<p>So the smart way to read Week 1 isn&#8217;t &#8220;they&#8217;re down, sell&#8221;. It&#8217;s &#8220;they&#8217;re the same players, and some of them are now cheaper&#8221;. Wemby is $310k cheaper than at the start of the season, Shai $190k and Giannis $100k. Same expected output, lower price.</p>



<p>And for three of the four, the schedule and the situation make the next few weeks better than usual.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Wemby and the 3-4-4 run</strong></h3>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="521" src="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-1024x521.png" alt="" class="wp-image-2406930" style="width:892px;height:auto" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-1024x521.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-300x153.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-768x391.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-640x326.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8-1200x611.png 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/image-8.png 1344w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p><em>Week 1 from SuperCoach NBA. Projections are games per week × 2025-26 SC average, assuming every game played</em></p>



<p>Wemby had the worst Week 1 of the four: 80 against a break-even of 108, and a $310k price drop. He&#8217;s also the player I&#8217;d be least worried about.</p>



<p>The reason is the schedule. San Antonio plays three games in Week 2, then four in Week 3 and four in Week 4. That&#8217;s 11 games in three weeks. At last season&#8217;s average of 36.1, that&#8217;s roughly 108, then 144, then 144. Weeks 3 and 4 are exactly the weeks you want to be captaining him.</p>



<p>There&#8217;s also the ownership angle. Wemby is in more teams than anyone else in the game. If you sell him now and he puts up 144 in Week 3, most of the field gets those points, and you don&#8217;t. Selling the most-owned player after his worst week is the riskiest move on the board, not the safest.</p>



<p>His three-game week is the one to sit through. His four-game weeks are the ones you&#8217;ll be glad you held for.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Most Consecutive 20-Point Games:<br><br>141 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (broken yestday)<br>126 — Wilt Chamberlain (1961-1963)<br>92 — Wilt Chamberlain (1963-1964)<br><br>Streak started in Nov 1 2024<br><br>Shai in this span averaged  — <br>32.1 PPG | 4.6 RPG | 6.5 APG<br>53.7% FG<br>38.5% 3P<br>88.9% FT <a href="https://t.co/9vH6UTJ5vR">pic.twitter.com/9vH6UTJ5vR</a></p>&mdash; Hoop Muse (@HoopMuse) <a href="https://x.com/HoopMuse/status/2113646846975308257?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 23, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Shai without Jalen Williams</strong></h3>



<p>Shai&#8217;s case changed on Sunday night. Jalen Williams was stretchered off late in OKC&#8217;s win over the Clippers with what&#8217;s being reported as a serious lower-leg injury. The reports are that he will miss most of or all of the season.</p>



<p>We&#8217;ve seen what Shai does without him. Williams only played 31 games last season, and Shai played 39 games without him. In those games, he was a different level again:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th>Shai, 2025-26</th><th>Points</th><th>Rebounds</th><th>Assists</th><th>Steals</th><th>FG%</th><th>Approx. SC per game</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Without Jalen Williams (39 games)</td><td>32.2</td><td>4.6</td><td>6.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>56.1%</td><td>36.5</td></tr><tr><td>With Jalen Williams (29 games)</td><td>29.6</td><td>3.9</td><td>6.2</td><td>1.1</td><td>55.1%</td><td>31.8</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>That&#8217;s 2.6 more points, more boards, more assists, and half a steal more a game, and roughly 4.7 extra SuperCoach points every time he plays without Williams. The with-Williams line is worked back from his full-season averages minus the 39 games without him, so it&#8217;s approximate, but the gap is real.</p>



<p>Worth being accurate about one thing. OKC weren&#8217;t struggling in those games. They were +12.2 per game with Shai on the floor and Williams out. He didn&#8217;t carry a bad team. He carried a good team harder, and his numbers went up because of it.</p>



<p>The schedule backs it up. OKC has three games in Week 2, then four in Week 3 and four in Week 4. At his without-Williams rate, that&#8217;s roughly 110, 146 and 146. Like Wemby, his three-game week is the one to sit through, and his four-game weeks are the payoff. And unlike Wemby, his role just got bigger.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LUKA DONCIC FIRST 50-POINT GAME OF THE YEAR 🔥 <a href="https://t.co/U9RYDDneFm">pic.twitter.com/U9RYDDneFm</a></p>&mdash; SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) <a href="https://x.com/SportsCenter/status/2114503258945314939?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 25, 2026</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Luka has already started correcting</strong></h3>



<p>Luka&#8217;s Week 1 looked grim for two games. Then on Sunday he dropped 52 points on Utah, with 10 assists, 8 rebounds, and 8 threes, on 17-of-30 from the field and 10-of-11 at the line. That one game turned his week from a disaster into 100.</p>



<p>That&#8217;s regression to the mean in real time. Two quiet games and one huge one, and suddenly his week sits only 8 points below his break-even. That&#8217;s the kind of swing a three-game sample produces, and it cuts both ways. It&#8217;s why you don&#8217;t judge a premium on one week.</p>



<p>And the next fortnight is the best schedule of the four. The Lakers have four games in Week 2 and four more in Week 3. At last season&#8217;s average, that&#8217;s around 144 in each of them. If you captained him in Week 1, keep the armband on him.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The verdict</strong></h3>



<p>Hold all three. Week 1 doesn&#8217;t change what they are, and the next three weeks are set up for them.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><thead><tr><th>Week</th><th>Luka</th><th>Shai</th><th>Wemby</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2</td><td>4 games</td><td>3 games</td><td>3 games</td></tr><tr><td>3</td><td>4 games</td><td>4 games</td><td>4 games</td></tr><tr><td>4</td><td>3 games</td><td>4 games</td><td>4 games</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Week 3 is the one I&#8217;m looking forward to. All three have four games, and Shai&#8217;s role has just grown. That&#8217;s the week the premiums pay back Week 1.</p>



<p>Giannis is the one I&#8217;m less sure about, and not because of Week 1. His 85 came with two blowouts and a foul-out, so the usage is there. But Miami has three games in Week 2, and Atlanta&#8217;s Jalen Johnson has four in both Weeks 2 and 3 at a lower price. That&#8217;s a schedule call, not a panic sell.</p>



<p>If you&#8217;re tempted to sell a premium after one week, ask yourself one question. Would you have bought him at this price on Tuesday? For Luka, Shai, and Wemby, the answer is yes. They&#8217;re the same players. Some of them are just cheaper.</p>


NBA Supercoach | Don’t sell the premiums

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