AFL Supercoach 2026: The Run Home - Fixtures to Win Your Head-to-Head Leagues


<p>Let&#8217;s be honest: most of us aren&#8217;t winning Supercoach. I&#8217;m sitting 19k and telling myself that&#8217;s fine, because the trophy I actually care about is the head-to-head league with my mates. That&#8217;s the one you remember. That&#8217;s the one worth bragging about come October.</p>



<p>Here&#8217;s the thing about H2H: you and your opponent probably own half the same team. So the edge isn&#8217;t the obvious premium everyone already has. It&#8217;s the run home. A couple of tidy matchups between Round 21 and 24 can be the difference between a win and the wooden spoon in your league.</p>



<p>So I&#8217;ve gone line by line and mapped who has the easiest run to the finish. Think of this as a planning guide, not a &#8220;trade now or else.&#8221; Match the soft fixtures to the players you can actually get in.</p>



<p>The fixture ratings blend recent form over the last five weeks with full-season data. Higher is easier for the position.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Defenders</strong></h2>



<p>Key: 🟢🟢 Super easy | 🟢 Good | ⬜ Neutral | 🔴 Hard | 🔴🔴 Super hard</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Team</td><td>R21</td><td>R22</td><td>R23</td><td>R24</td></tr><tr><td>Geelong</td><td>⬜ @COL</td><td>🟢🟢 vESS</td><td>🔴 @NTH</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td></tr><tr><td>North Melbourne</td><td>🟢 @HAW</td><td>🟢🟢 @WBD</td><td>⬜ vGEE</td><td>⬜ @SYD</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td><td>⬜ @FRE</td><td>🔴 vGWS</td></tr><tr><td>Port Adelaide</td><td>🔴 vGWS</td><td>⬜ @SYD</td><td>⬜ vMEL</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney</td><td>⬜ @STK</td><td>⬜ vPTA</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td><td>🔴 vNTH</td></tr><tr><td>West Coast</td><td>🟢🟢 @RIC</td><td>⬜ vCOL</td><td>🔴 @GWS</td><td>🟢 vHAW</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Essendon and the Bulldogs are the softest matchups here, and the good news is plenty of ceiling defenders line up against them.</p>



<p><strong>Max Holmes</strong> ($572,600) is a lock regardless. Only three scores below 100 all year and none below 80, and he hasn&#8217;t drawn Essendon or Richmond once. Geelong get both in the run home (Essendon R22, Richmond R24), so these shape as ceiling games for a bloke who&#8217;s already automatic.</p>



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<p><strong>Luke Parker</strong> ($534,300) is the opposite timing. He just banked 131 and 122 on Richmond and Essendon, so those ceilings are behind him, though a 142 on Port says the floor is still strong. North&#8217;s best week left is the Dogs in R22. Same team, I wouldn&#8217;t be buying <strong>Caleb Daniel</strong> ($538,900) now. He&#8217;s boom or bust, but that 149 and 145 against Richmond and Essendon tell you exactly what his Bulldogs game could produce, so he&#8217;s one to buy closer to R22 rather than early.</p>



<p>Adelaide and Sydney are both stacked and it&#8217;s genuinely hard to split them. Adelaide roll out <strong>Wayne Milera</strong> ($500,600) and <strong>Josh Worrell</strong> ($481,500), Sydney counter with <strong>Nick Blakey </strong>($459,700) and <strong>Callum Mills</strong> ($513,100). If Milera&#8217;s back firing, these fixtures make him the one to own. Otherwise Blakey is always solid, and Sydney get their own Essendon game in R23.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Mids</strong></h2>



<p>Key: 🟢🟢 Super easy | 🟢 Good | ⬜ Neutral | 🔴 Hard | 🔴🔴 Super hard</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Team</td><td>R21</td><td>R22</td><td>R23</td><td>R24</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td><td>🔴 @FRE</td><td>🟢 vGWS</td></tr><tr><td>Port Adelaide</td><td>🟢 vGWS</td><td>⬜ @SYD</td><td>⬜ vMEL</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td></tr><tr><td>Geelong</td><td>⬜ @COL</td><td>🟢🟢 vESS</td><td>🔴 @NTH</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td></tr><tr><td>West Coast</td><td>🟢🟢 @RIC</td><td>⬜ vCOL</td><td>🟢 @GWS</td><td>🟢 vHAW</td></tr><tr><td>Collingwood</td><td>⬜ vGEE</td><td>⬜ @WCE</td><td>🟢 @HAW</td><td>🟢🟢 vBRL</td></tr><tr><td>North Melbourne</td><td>🟢 @HAW</td><td>🟢 @WBD</td><td>⬜ vGEE</td><td>⬜ @SYD</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Mids feast on Essendon, the softest single matchup in this whole piece, so whoever draws them is a genuine ceiling week.</p>



<p>Here&#8217;s the thing though: the best fixtures land on premiums you already own. <strong>Zak Butters</strong> ($612,100), <strong>Bailey Smith</strong> ($586,700), <strong>Nick Daicos</strong> ($631,900) and <strong>Jordan Dawson </strong>($604,700) are all top-five mids, so nothing surprising in the trade sense. The value is captaincy. Line up their green weeks and you have a premium skipper loop almost every round:</p>



<ul>
<li>R21: Dawson (Essendon)</li>



<li>R22: Dawson (Richmond), Baz (Essendon)</li>



<li>R23: Daicos (Hawthorn)</li>



<li>R24: Butters (Essendon), Baz (Richmond), Daicos (Brisbane)</li>
</ul>



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<p>The message is simple: own enough of them that every week has a green captain. Unlike me, sitting here unable to squeeze Baz in. Wish I&#8217;d seen this earlier.</p>



<p>If you&#8217;re short on trades and need a downgrade to play at flex or as cover, <strong>Oliver Francou</strong> ($99,100) is worth a look. He was superb on debut, and West Coast&#8217;s run backs it in: a double-green against Richmond in R21, then greens in R23 and R24. At rookie price, that&#8217;s a handy way to plug a hole without burning a premium trade.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Rucks</strong></h2>



<p>Key: 🟢🟢 Super easy | 🟢 Good | ⬜ Neutral | 🔴 Hard | 🔴🔴 Super hard</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Team</td><td>R21</td><td>R22</td><td>R23</td><td>R24</td></tr><tr><td>Richmond</td><td>🟢 vWCE</td><td>🔴 @ADL</td><td>🟢 vSTK</td><td>🟢🟢 @GEE</td></tr><tr><td>Geelong</td><td>🟢🟢 @COL</td><td>🟢🟢 vESS</td><td>🔴 @NTH</td><td>🟢 vRIC</td></tr><tr><td>Fremantle</td><td>🟢🟢 vWBD</td><td>🔴 @MEL</td><td>🔴 vADL</td><td>🟢🟢 @CAR</td></tr><tr><td>St Kilda</td><td>🔴 vSYD</td><td>🟢🟢 vCAR</td><td>🟢 @RIC</td><td>🔴🔴 vGCS</td></tr><tr><td>Hawthorn</td><td>🔴 vNTH</td><td>🔴🔴 @BRL</td><td>🟢🟢 vCOL</td><td>🟢 @WCE</td></tr><tr><td>Port Adelaide</td><td>⬜ vGWS</td><td>🔴 @SYD</td><td>🔴 vMEL</td><td>🟢🟢 @ESS</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Here&#8217;s the catch with ruck: the teams with the best runs aren&#8217;t teams you&#8217;d actually pick a ruck from. Richmond and Geelong top the table on fixtures, but there&#8217;s no premium ruck to grab at either. So for once, the run home doesn&#8217;t hand you an obvious play.</p>



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<p>The one exception is <strong>Luke Jackson</strong> ($619,800). Fremantle&#8217;s run is proper hit and miss: a couple of amazing fixtures (the Bulldogs in R21, Carlton in R24) mixed in with some tough ones in between. If you already own him, captain the good weeks and ride out the reds.</p>



<p><strong>Rowan Marshall </strong>($433,700) looked like value last week and delivered, a 133 to back it up. The catch: TDK is meant to be back for the Saints in around three weeks, and once he is, the ruck split caps Marshall&#8217;s ceiling. So this is a short window, not a set-and-forget. Wish I&#8217;d had the trades to jump on him last week myself.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Key Forwards</strong></h2>



<p>Key: 🟢🟢 Super easy | 🟢 Good | ⬜ Neutral | 🔴 Hard | 🔴🔴 Super hard</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Team</td><td>R21</td><td>R22</td><td>R23</td><td>R24</td></tr><tr><td>North Melbourne</td><td>⬜ @HAW</td><td>🟢🟢 @WBD</td><td>⬜ vGEE</td><td>🔴 @SYD</td></tr><tr><td>Geelong</td><td>🔴 @COL</td><td>🟢 vESS</td><td>⬜ @NTH</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide</td><td>🟢 @ESS</td><td>🟢🟢 vRIC</td><td>🔴 @FRE</td><td>⬜ vGWS</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne</td><td>🔴 @GCS</td><td>🔴 vFRE</td><td>⬜ @PTA</td><td>🟢🟢 vWBD</td></tr><tr><td>West Coast</td><td>🟢🟢 @RIC</td><td>🔴 vCOL</td><td>⬜ @GWS</td><td>⬜ vHAW</td></tr><tr><td>Collingwood</td><td>⬜ vGEE</td><td>⬜ @WCE</td><td>⬜ @HAW</td><td>⬜ vBRL</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>First, a caveat: these numbers are for genuine key forwards, the talls who kick bags. If your forward plays more up the ground (Pickett, Sheezel, De Goey), read them off the mid table instead, not this one.</p>



<p>Key forward is a one-week-target line. You want this type for a single big week, ideally your R24 decider. The fixtures to chase are Richmond and, interestingly, the Bulldogs too: someone who might kick a bag of seven.</p>



<p><strong>Riley Thilthorpe</strong> ($370,100) is the obvious name, but it&#8217;s a no from me. Remember when he averaged 97 last year? He&#8217;s got just two scores above that all season, and he managed only 69 the last time he saw Richmond. Adelaide&#8217;s big week is R22 against the Tigers, so if you specifically need a R22 win and he&#8217;s finally caught some form, go for it. Otherwise leave it.</p>



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<p><strong>Shannon Neale</strong> ($394,700) hasn&#8217;t faced Essendon or Richmond yet, and Geelong get both (Essendon R22, Richmond R24). The problem is he&#8217;s only kicked more than three goals twice all year, so I&#8217;m not sure the ceiling is high enough to trust.</p>



<p>The one I&#8217;m watching is <strong>Jeremy Cameron</strong> ($289,800). He was quiet on the weekend, just seven points from 119 minutes on the ground, with a lingering arm injury and no shot on goal in two of the last three weeks. If he rests up and comes back firing, Geelong get Richmond in R24 and he would be a genuine bargain: he kicked 129 in that exact fixture last year and 143 on West Coast in R24 2024. Wait and see, do not go early.</p>



<p>That&#8217;s the map. Match the fixtures to the players you can get in, and time your trades so the green weeks land when your H2H clash matters most.</p>


AFL Supercoach 2026: The Run Home – Fixtures to Win Your Head-to-Head Leagues

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