Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 5 trades, skippers and strategy


<p>I&#8217;m writing this during the final game of the round, so there&#8217;s no rank to hand you yet. </p>



<p>I&#8217;m on 177 for the round with Munoz still to come, so hopefully a few more points in the tank. (Update, 239th overall)</p>



<p>Can&#8217;t complain about the trade-ins: Wirtz and Messi both did exactly what I brought them in for. Pulisic and Bellingham are the other side of the coin, neither got me the returns I was after.</p>



<p>Getting this out now because we&#8217;ve got important fixtures early on Sunday, and you&#8217;ll want your squad sorted before the first ball. Half the teams are out, so I&#8217;ve got a heap of trades to make. Here&#8217;s the plan.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Fixtures</strong></h2>



<p>The country limit lifts to three per country this round too, so stacking a strong nation is back in play. Keep that in your back pocket for France.</p>



<p>Only eight games this round, so let&#8217;s run through them.</p>



<p><strong>Sunday</strong></p>



<p><strong>Canada vs Morocco</strong> Predicted goals: Canada 0.95, Morocco 1.65. Clean sheet odds: Canada 18%, Morocco 40%.</p>



<ul>
<li>Confident backing Morocco here, and I&#8217;m after two or three of their options.</li>



<li>Hakimi: absolute lock. Starts on field for me, no loop.</li>



<li>Saibari: a confident trade in. Three goals in the group stage and playing up top, which is gold when we can select him as a mid.</li>



<li>Brahim Diaz: the speculative one. Two assists in the tournament off the right wing, but he hasn&#8217;t looked strong the last two fixtures and was barely involved against the Netherlands. A punt, not a lock.</li>



<li>Bounou: your keeper to loop with if you want one, on those strong clean sheet odds.</li>



<li>Alphonso Davies: first minutes back from injury, up on the wing. Not sure you can pull the trigger just yet, but an exciting one to watch.</li>
</ul>



<p><strong>Paraguay vs France</strong> Predicted goals: Paraguay 0.51, France 2.63. Clean sheet odds: Paraguay 5%, France 61%.</p>



<ul>
<li>The fixture of the round, the best in the competition for both attack and defence. Load up.</li>



<li>Mbappe and Olise: absolute locks, no debate.</li>



<li>You&#8217;ll want a third France pick, and the question is who:
<ul>
<li>Dembele: the ideal third. Who doesn&#8217;t want a Ballon d&#8217;Or winner coming off 23, 30 and 12 the last three weeks? The only catch is whether you can squeeze him into an already stacked forward line.</li>



<li>Cherki: an instant pick the moment he starts, but that looks unlikely.</li>



<li>Saliba: the safest defensive route. Digne and Hernandez keep swapping at left back, and Saliba had his rest in the third group game.</li>



<li>Maignan: an option, but with keeper looping in play I&#8217;d rather bank that clean sheet in the defender line, where looping is harder.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>



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<p><strong>Monday</strong></p>



<p><strong>Brazil vs Norway</strong> Predicted goals: Brazil 1.93, Norway 1.23. Clean sheet odds: Brazil 31%, Norway 15%.</p>



<ul>
<li>Vini: still a very strong option. Desperately unlucky last round, forcing an incredible save that kept him off the scoresheet.</li>



<li>Haaland: you never bet against him. But with this many forward options around, I&#8217;d take someone with an easier fixture.</li>



<li>Gabriel and Bruno G: both come off an assist and both stack up as solid picks.</li>
</ul>



<p><strong>Mexico vs England</strong> Predicted goals: Mexico 1.21, England 1.33. Clean sheet odds: Mexico 27%, England 30%.</p>



<ul>
<li>The odds call this a coin flip, and it&#8217;s not one I&#8217;m targeting.</li>



<li>Mexico have lost just two of 89 competitive games at the Azteca, so don&#8217;t be shocked if they cause the upset.</li>



<li>Kane: always a solid shout, and it&#8217;s shaping as another Kane vs Vini call for me this week. Beyond that, I&#8217;m not chasing anyone in this one.</li>
</ul>



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<p><strong>Tuesday</strong></p>



<p><strong>Portugal vs Spain</strong> Predicted goals: Portugal 1.20, Spain 1.83. Clean sheet odds: Portugal 16%, Spain 32%.</p>



<ul>
<li>Oyarzabal: has gone 4, 28, 0, 23. Which one shows up? Solid as always, but like Kane he struggles to force his way into my top three.</li>



<li>Yamal: a lock as a midfielder, but same problem as Oyarzabal: too many forward options ahead of him.</li>



<li>Cucurella: starts for me. Four clean sheets from four for Spain, so it&#8217;s hard to look past their defensive picks, and I&#8217;m not leaning on clean sheet points alone with him.</li>



<li>Olmo: more involved going forward than Pedri, but a start risk. Same risk with Pedro Porro, though he flashed his attacking upside last round. Happy with either if they get the nod.</li>
</ul>



<p><strong>USA vs Belgium</strong> Predicted goals: USA 1.50, Belgium 1.64. Clean sheet odds: USA 20%, Belgium 23%.</p>



<ul>
<li>Like Mexico vs England, this shapes as a tight one, but with more attacking upside on both sides.</li>



<li>KDB and Pulisic: talismanic for their sides, but both came off poorer games last round.</li>



<li>Lukaku: a minutes risk, and I really wish Trossard was classified as a mid.</li>



<li>Tielemans: outperforming his xG, but he took four shots last round, which is promising.</li>



<li>Dest: the interesting one. Playing right wing for the USA but you can select him as a defender. He doesn&#8217;t rack up base stats, but the attacking upside is huge.</li>
</ul>



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<p><strong>Wednesday</strong></p>



<p><strong>Argentina vs Egypt</strong> Predicted goals: Argentina 2.16, Egypt 0.62. Clean sheet odds: Argentina 55%, Egypt 9%.</p>



<ul>
<li>Messi isn&#8217;t going anywhere. The question is who else.</li>



<li>Emiliano Martinez: disappointing, conceding the last two rounds when we expected clean sheets, but not worth trading out. A great option if your other keeper concedes.</li>



<li>No midfielder here takes my fancy. The real question is whether a triple up is worth it.</li>



<li>Medina vs Lisandro Martinez was a coin flip, but I have to go Martinez after that Messi assist. What a pass. Well done to anyone who grabbed him last round.</li>
</ul>



<p><strong>Switzerland vs Colombia/Ghana</strong> Predicted goals and clean sheet odds: to come.</p>



<ul>
<li>The opponent is still up in the air as I write this, so I&#8217;ll share any top picks on the Discord once it&#8217;s settled.</li>



<li>If Ghana get through, I&#8217;m more interested in the Swiss assets, Manzambi in particular.</li>



<li>If Colombia get through, it shapes as a tight game with little upside.</li>
</ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Trade Plans</strong></h2>



<p>The frame this round is simple: clear out anyone who&#8217;s gone home. Netherlands and Germany especially, they&#8217;re dead weight now. I&#8217;m also moving out of my England assets, with one eye on trimming Belgium and USA if their fixtures don&#8217;t excite me.</p>



<p><strong>Dumfries</strong> is a straight cull, gone with the Netherlands. In comes <strong>Lisandro Martinez</strong>, and Argentina against Egypt does the rest.</p>



<p><strong>Wirtz</strong> was one of my best trade-ins, but Germany are out, so he goes the same way. <strong>Saibari</strong> replaces him: three group-stage goals, playing up top, and we can slot him as a mid. Morocco&#8217;s numbers against Canada make him an easy in.</p>



<p><strong>Kane</strong> is the first England exit. The replacement is <strong>Vini</strong> or <strong>Dembele</strong>, and this one&#8217;s a genuine coin-flip. Dembele has the softest opponent in the round in Paraguay, Vini is the nailed-on start against Norway. I&#8217;ll settle it at lockout.</p>



<p><strong>Bellingham</strong> follows Kane out, and the midfield replacement is the tricky one: <strong>Bruno G</strong>, <strong>Cherki</strong> or <strong>Olmo</strong>. Cherki only comes in if he starts, which looks unlikely, and Olmo carries a start risk of his own. Bruno G is the safe body, I just don&#8217;t back him 100%, so if I bring him in I&#8217;ll bench him and take his score if he does well. Midfield&#8217;s a mess this week, so I&#8217;m not forcing it.</p>



<p><strong>Samudio</strong> is the last out, a straight swap for <strong>Bounou</strong> as my new loop keeper.</p>



<p><strong>My planned moves</strong></p>



<ul>
<li>Dumfries &gt; Lisandro Martinez</li>



<li>Wirtz &gt; Saibari</li>



<li>Kane &gt; Vini or Dembele</li>



<li>Bellingham &gt; Bruno G / Cherki / Olmo</li>



<li>Samudio &gt; Bounou</li>
</ul>



<p><strong>Loophole Strategy</strong></p>



<p><strong>The keeper loop:</strong> always worth it, no exceptions. That&#8217;s the whole reason I&#8217;m getting Bounou in early. Morocco play Canada on strong clean sheet odds with an early kickoff, so I bank his score and only bring my main keeper in if they beat it. Free upside.</p>



<p><strong>Formation:</strong> midfielders let me down this week, so I&#8217;m back to the 3-4-3. Gabriel goes to the bench as my defender so I can get a look at his score, and I&#8217;ll bench one of the mids I&#8217;m not fully sold on too: Pulisic, KDB or Bruno G. If that bench mid does well, I&#8217;ll trade in an eliminated player to take the score.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Captains</strong></h2>



<p>The skipper is Messi. Obvious call, and I&#8217;m not fighting it: Argentina against Egypt, and he&#8217;s been flying all tournament. Mbappe takes the vice, and that&#8217;s the loop. He plays Sunday, so if he goes big I&#8217;ll shift the C onto a non-player like I did last round and bank his score as my double. If he&#8217;s quiet, I stick with Messi on Wednesday.</p>



<p>For the rank-chasers, the differentials are Vini, Dembele and Hakimi. Dembele is coming off 23, 30 and 12 and gets Paraguay, Vini was desperately unlucky last round and is still a very strong option, and Hakimi is the boldest zag if you want off the France and Argentina crowd.</p>



<p><strong>VC:</strong> Mbappe</p>



<p><strong>C:</strong> Messi</p>



<p><strong>Other options:</strong></p>



<ul>
<li>Vini</li>



<li>Dembele</li>



<li>Hakimi</li>
</ul>


Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 5 trades, skippers and strategy

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