Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 3 trades, skippers and strategy

Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 3 trades, skippers and strategy



Another solid week. I&#8217;ve got 164 on the board with Bruno still to come, the loophole VC and a couple of bench scores doing their bit, and the double Ecuador defence finally landing me on the right side of the numbers.



The trades were a wash. Oyarzabal to Vini lost points, though it eased the sting of backing him so hard in week one. Courtois to Galindez came out level. Baumgartner to Pedri was about benching Musiala, and Mendes and Martinez went out for two nuffs to get loop options on the bench. 



Net result: about what I&#8217;d have scored standing pat, just with an extra nuff to play with now.



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Round 3 is the toughest week so far by my read, which makes it a prime chance to climb.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fixtures</h2>



Final round of the group stage, so the table splits three ways: teams already through, teams still scrapping, and teams already out. Two landmines to dodge. Dead rubbers where eliminated sides clock off, and rest risk where group winners wrap their stars in cotton wool.



The rule for the round is simple. Only target a team with a reason to go hard and a soft opponent to do it against. Motivation without a fixture is a grind. A fixture without motivation is a trap.



Teams that might rest



Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have all locked top spot. They can&#8217;t climb and can&#8217;t be caught, so expect rotation and early hooks. Argentina vs Jordan looks a treat on paper, but I&#8217;m fading all four regardless. A starter pulled at 60 is worse than a nailed-on 90 from a team that needs it.



France and Norway are both through but play each other for top spot, so they sit outside the rest bucket, though France could still freshen things up.



Fixtures to target



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Attack incredible (&gt;2.5 xG)</td><td>Attack strong (&gt;2 xG)</td><td>Clean sheet incredible (&gt;60%)</td><td>Clean sheet strong (&gt;50%)</td></tr><tr><td>Netherlands vs Tunisia</td><td>Argentina vs Jordan</td><td>Netherlands vs Tunisia</td><td>Morocco vs Haiti</td></tr><tr><td>Côte d&#8217;Ivoire vs Curaçao</td><td>Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar</td><td></td><td>Belgium vs New Zealand</td></tr><tr><td>Morocco vs Haiti</td><td>Brazil vs Scotland</td><td></td><td>Argentina vs Jordan</td></tr><tr><td>England vs Panama</td><td></td><td></td><td>Senegal vs Iraq</td></tr><tr><td>Belgium vs New Zealand</td><td></td><td></td><td>England vs Panama</td></tr><tr><td>Senegal vs Iraq</td><td></td><td></td><td>Brazil vs Scotland</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Côte d&#8217;Ivoire vs Curaçao</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Teams in italics have rest potential.



The genuine plays are Netherlands (Tunisia have shipped nine and are gone), Morocco (full strength to dodge second and a likely Netherlands tie), Côte d&#8217;Ivoire and Belgium (toothless, but they need a result against the softest opponent going). Senegal vs Iraq is the cheeky one. 



They can still sneak through in third, but it needs a big result here plus other games falling their way. Either way, 2.5 expected goals against a side that&#8217;s leaked seven is juicy. Brazil vs Scotland is tighter.



England&#8217;s draw with Ghana makes the Poms an excellent target against Panama also.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trade Plans</h2>



The frame for the round: target teams with genuine motivation and a soft opponent, and look past anyone who&#8217;s already locked their spot.



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Netherlands



<ul>
<li>Gakpo&nbsp;is the most likely attacker: 1.36 xG for two goals, plus 0.60 xA for an assist.</li>



<li>Dumfries&nbsp;is basically a winger in a defender&#8217;s shirt: 0.59 xA for two assists.</li>



<li>Van Dijk&nbsp;is the safe play with a Round 1 goal, but it&#8217;s hard to go past Dumfries.</li>
</ul>



Côte d&#8217;Ivoire



<ul>
<li>No talisman hogging the xG.&nbsp;Diallo&nbsp;is my slight favourite of the attackers at 0.49 xG, a nose ahead of&nbsp;Diomandé&nbsp;(0.73 xA, 0.27 xG), though spending a forward slot on either is the question.</li>



<li>Singo&nbsp;is a base play, not attacking, his Round 1 assist his only chance created.&nbsp;Fofana&nbsp;(GK) is the better route to the clean sheet.</li>
</ul>



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Morocco



<ul>
<li>Saibari&nbsp;and&nbsp;Hakimi&nbsp;are my two picks, locked and boring.</li>



<li>Saibari sits on 0.94 xG, Hakimi on 0.50 xG plus 0.32 xA, and both pile up good base stats.</li>



<li>Full strength expected against an out Haiti.</li>
</ul>



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Senegal



<ul>
<li>Sarr&nbsp;is the pick at 1.47 xG, even if the Forward listing makes the slot a tough ask.</li>



<li>Jackson&nbsp;over&nbsp;Mané&nbsp;for me. Just an assist so far, but I back him even with Mané&#8217;s elite base stats this week.</li>



<li>Diouf&nbsp;is the smokey: only 144 minutes but some assist threat, though I don&#8217;t trust their defence.</li>
</ul>



England



<ul>
<li>Kane&nbsp;is the popular Haaland swap now that England have something to play for following the Ghana draw.</li>
</ul>



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Belgium



<ul>
<li>Toothless so far: 1.35 xG in game one, 1.79 in game two.</li>



<li>I&#8217;m firming on&nbsp;De Bruyne&nbsp;as my pick, even if I&#8217;m not sold on the ceiling.</li>



<li>The other route is&nbsp;Courtois&nbsp;plus a defender, with&nbsp;Mechele&#8216;s base stats the pick there.</li>
</ul>



Who I&#8217;m moving on



<ul>
<li>Haaland: the France fixture is brutal, but can you ever really bet against him? This feels like maybe the one week you can.</li>



<li>The German picks (Musiala,&nbsp;Wirtz): rests are coming, so it&#8217;s time to move them on or bench them.</li>



<li>Valverde&nbsp;(17.5%): not convinced by Uruguay at that ownership, I&#8217;d look elsewhere.</li>



<li>Colombia players: Portugal should be a tough night.</li>
</ul>



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On the fence



<ul>
<li>Holding&nbsp;Olise&nbsp;and&nbsp;Mbappe&nbsp;for now: Norway do concede, and France sit only just under the two-goal line on my table.</li>



<li>Ecuador is the fence-sitter. If Germany rest enough they could nick a result, but I&#8217;m not running a double defence there.</li>
</ul>



My planned moves



<ul>
<li>Musiala &gt; Saibari</li>



<li>Livramento (defender nuff) &gt; Dumfries</li>



<li>Haaland &gt; Gakpo or Kane </li>



<li>Galindez &gt; Courtois (reversing my Round 2 move)</li>



<li>Wirtz &gt; De Bruyne</li>



<li>GK nuff &gt; Martinez (also a Round 2 reversal, only if Courtois doesn&#8217;t deliver)</li>
</ul>



Loophole Strategy



What I learned in Round 2: the loops worked well for me. They came out scoring about the same as the players I ditched, but the safety was worth it.



My Round 3 plan:



<ul>
<li>Not a week for fancy looping. I&#8217;m expecting a fair few benchings, so I&#8217;m keeping it simple.</li>



<li>Likely benching Cucurella, Pacho and one of Bruno or Pedri.</li>



<li>The keeper is the loop I&#8217;ll actually look at. It&#8217;s the optimal spot, since looping there doesn&#8217;t change the formation you play.</li>



<li>Back to the full loop toolkit from next week.</li>
</ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Captains</h2>



Kane and Messi are the two huge skipper shouts, and on talent it&#8217;s a coin flip. The catch is the one stalking the whole round: resting risk. Both play on the final Sunday, England at 7am and Argentina at noon our time, and with Argentina already top of their group, a rest or an early hook is live for either.



So this is a week to lean on the loop for safety. Captain Kane or Messi if they play, but set your vice on someone earlier and safer: Diallo, Gakpo or Vini all take the field before that final Sunday. If your skipper gets rested, the VC score doubles and you&#8217;re covered. If they start, you bank the ceiling. We know now Kane will play at least.



The smokey is Saibari. Morocco at full strength against an out Haiti is a tidy spot for a differential armband if you want to zag.



VC:&nbsp;Diallo / Gakpo / Vini



C:&nbsp;Kane / Messi



Other options:



<ul>
<li>Saibari</li>
</ul>

Supercoach World Cup Final Word | Round 3 trades, skippers and strategy

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