EPL Supercoach | Cracking the code to pricing and breakevens


<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>My Breakeven Chasing Disasters</strong></h3>



<p>I&#8217;ve made some stupid trades this season. </p>



<p>The kind that look smart on paper but make you wince when you check your team value three weeks later.</p>



<p>Micky van de Ven looked like a no-brainer in Week 5. </p>



<p>He&#8217;d just hauled 25 points, risen £1.7m, and sat on a -5 breakeven. </p>



<p>I paid £7.7m, thinking there was still plenty left in the tank. </p>



<p>He then scored 1, 6, 5 across the next three rounds before I bailed at £7.9m. </p>



<p>Made £200k profit, sure &#8211; but burned two trades for three mediocre scores. </p>



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<p>The breakeven was brilliant. </p>



<p>The player selection wasn&#8217;t.</p>



<p>Daniel Ballard seemed even better. </p>



<p>Bought him at £4.2m right after his 30-point haul, before any price rises. </p>



<p>Perfect timing, right? </p>



<p>He then delivered 2, 6, 2 (ignoring the injury weeks).</p>



<p>Despite buying at base price with a dream breakeven, I only squeezed £1.5m out of him. </p>



<p>Another two trades wasted.</p>



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<p>Both moves taught me the same lesson: low breakevens mean nothing if the player can&#8217;t deliver. </p>



<p>I was chasing price rises instead of backing players who&#8217;d actually score points. </p>



<p>The breakeven formula doesn&#8217;t care about fixtures, form, or whether someone&#8217;s a genuine weapon. </p>



<p>It just tells you the number they need to hit.</p>



<p>I&#8217;ve spent the international break pulling apart the pricing system to work out what actually matters. </p>



<p>Here&#8217;s what I&#8217;ve learned.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Under the Hood: The Pricing Formula</strong></h3>



<p>Skip this if you just want the practical stuff. </p>



<p>This section&#8217;s for the diehards who want to understand the engine.</p>



<p>AFL and NRL Supercoach use an identical pricing mechanism that the fantasy community reverse-engineered over 15+ years. </p>



<p>The core formula operates as: New Price = (0.75 × Current Price) + (0.25 × 3-Game Average × Magic Number). </p>



<p>This 75/25 weighted structure means three-quarters of a player&#8217;s price carries forward each week, whilst one-quarter adjusts based on their rolling three-game average performance.</p>



<p>Both codes implement a &#8220;3-game rule&#8221;: players must complete three games before any price change occurs, and only their most recent three performances matter. </p>



<p>A breakout 150-point game in AFL impacts pricing for exactly three rounds before dropping from the rolling window, creating optimal trading windows.</p>



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<p>For Supercoach Premier League: I applied the same reverse-engineering methodology to player data across eight weeks. </p>



<p>The results confirmed EPL uses the identical 75/25 weighted formula with 3-game rolling averages. </p>



<p>EPL&#8217;s Magic Number sits around £1m-£1.05m. </p>



<p>I&#8217;ve back-tested this with numerous players throughout the season, achieving approximately 95% accuracy on predicting the following week&#8217;s price change.</p>



<p>Important caveat: These forecasts assume consistent scoring patterns &#8211; football rarely works that cleanly. </p>



<p>Injuries, rotation, and form changes throw everything off. </p>



<p>Use this as a guide, not a guarantee.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Practical Rules: How to Use This</strong></h3>



<p>The formula makes one thing beautifully simple: if a player costs £10m, they need to score 10 points per game to maintain their price over the long term (ignoring current breakeven). </p>



<p>That&#8217;s it. </p>



<p>The Magic Number sits around £1m, so the maths is straightforward.</p>



<p>Here&#8217;s what matters for trading:</p>



<p><strong>1. &#8220;Priced At&#8221; beats breakeven every time</strong><br>Supercoach is the stock market. </p>



<p>Buy low, sell high. </p>



<p>A player at £10m with a juicy breakeven looks tempting, but if you expect them to average 8 points long term, they&#8217;re dropping to £8m eventually. </p>



<p>Van de Ven taught me this the hard way &#8211; great breakeven, wrong underlying value.</p>



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<p><strong>2. The perfect trade combines both factors</strong><br>Low breakeven AND underpriced. </p>



<p>Sean Longstaff after his 33-point haul was the dream: still priced at £6.6m (expecting 6.6 points per game) whilst clearly capable of more. </p>



<p>That&#8217;s your entry point. </p>



<p>Low breakeven gets you immediate rises, and underpriced gives you sustained growth. </p>



<p>Even if Longstaff drops in value now, you&#8217;re still winning &#8211; he should never fall back to £6.6m. </p>



<p>That&#8217;s the power of buying genuinely underpriced players. </p>



<p>Just wish I understood this a few weeks ago…</p>



<p><strong>3. Timing matters if you&#8217;re flipping</strong><br>Chasing a low breakeven works if you&#8217;re selling in two weeks or banking on another monster score. </p>



<p>But most of us aren&#8217;t that disciplined. </p>



<p>Better to target genuinely underpriced players and hold them through the rise.</p>



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<p><strong>4. Price only matters when you sell</strong><br>If you&#8217;re holding Cucurella all season, his price swings are irrelevant to you &#8211; that -1 score and subsequent price drop didn&#8217;t hurt you, though it let others buy him cheaper. </p>



<p>For genuine keepers, breakevens and price changes are noise. </p>



<p>But you should still target value when building your team &#8211; buying underpriced keepers means more money for the rest of your squad.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Should You Buy Them?</strong></h3>



<p><strong>Reece James</strong></p>



<p>Current situation: £8.6m, coming off scores of 8 and 33. </p>



<p>That 33 is doing serious work right now.</p>



<p>I&#8217;ve run three scenarios through the pricing model to see where James lands by week 14:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Week</td><td>Bad Scenario (3pts/wk)</td><td>Medium Scenario (6pts/wk)</td><td>Good Scenario (10pts/wk)</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>£10.20m (+£1.6m)</td><td>£10.50m (+£1.9m)</td><td>£10.80m (+£2.2m)</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>£11.00m (+£800k)</td><td>£11.70m (+£1.2m)</td><td>£12.70m (+£1.9m)</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>£9.00m (-£2.0m) ⚠️</td><td>£10.30m (-£1.4m)</td><td>£12.10m (-£600k)</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>£7.50m (-£1.5m)</td><td>£9.30m (-£1.0m)</td><td>£11.70m (-£400k)</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>£6.40m (-£1.1m)</td><td>£8.50m (-£800k)</td><td>£11.40m (-£300k)</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>£5.60m (-£800k)</td><td>£7.90m (-£600k)</td><td>£11.10m (-£300k)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>The timing trade-off:</p>



<p>If you buy James at £8.6m and sell after Week 10:</p>



<ul>
<li>Bad scenario: £11.00m = +£2.4m profit</li>



<li>Medium scenario: £11.70m = +£3.1m profit</li>



<li>Good scenario: £12.70m = +£4.1m profit</li>
</ul>



<p>Hold until Week 14:</p>



<ul>
<li>Bad scenario: £5.60m = -£3.0m loss</li>



<li>Medium scenario: £7.90m = -£700k loss</li>



<li>Good scenario: £11.10m = +£2.5m profit</li>
</ul>



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<p>The verdict: If you&#8217;re buying James now, you&#8217;re guaranteed profit by week 10, regardless of performance &#8211; that 33 in the rolling window does the heavy lifting. </p>



<p>But hold past week 11, and it becomes a bet on his true scoring level.</p>



<p>My gut? </p>



<p>Those Chelsea fixtures are tempting, and I&#8217;m backing him to hit 8-10 points per game over that run. </p>



<p>Sunderland, Spurs, Wolves, and Burnley should give him room to deliver. </p>



<p>Worth the risk for me, with a clear exit plan before week 11 if he doesn&#8217;t perform.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Eli Junior Kroupi</strong></h3>



<p>Current situation: £5.34m, coming off scores of 9 and 21. That 21 is doing similar heavy lifting to James&#8217;s 33.</p>



<p>I&#8217;ve run the same three scenarios for Kroupi through week 14:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Week</td><td>Bad Scenario (3pts/wk)</td><td>Medium Scenario (6pts/wk)</td><td>Good Scenario (10pts/wk)</td></tr><tr><td>9</td><td>£6.80m (+£1.5m)</td><td>£7.10m (+£1.8m)</td><td>£7.40m (+£2.1m)</td></tr><tr><td>10</td><td>£7.40m (+£600k)</td><td>£8.20m (+£1.1m)</td><td>£9.10m (+£1.7m)</td></tr><tr><td>11</td><td>£6.30m (-£1.1m) ⚠️</td><td>£7.70m (-£500k)</td><td>£9.40m (+£300k)</td></tr><tr><td>12</td><td>£5.50m (-£800k)</td><td>£7.30m (-£400k)</td><td>£9.60m (+£200k)</td></tr><tr><td>13</td><td>£4.90m (-£600k)</td><td>£7.00m (-£300k)</td><td>£9.80m (+£200k)</td></tr><tr><td>14</td><td>£4.40m (-£500k)</td><td>£6.80m (-£200k)</td><td>£9.90m (+£100k)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>The timing trade-off:</p>



<p>If you buy Kroupi at £5.34m and sell after Week 10:</p>



<ul>
<li>Bad scenario: £7.40m = +£2.06m profit</li>



<li>Medium scenario: £8.20m = +£2.86m profit</li>



<li>Good scenario: £9.10m = +£3.76m profit</li>
</ul>



<p>Hold until Week 14:</p>



<ul>
<li>Bad scenario: £4.40m = -£940k loss</li>



<li>Medium scenario: £6.80m = +£1.46m profit</li>



<li>Good scenario: £9.90m = +£4.56m profit</li>
</ul>



<p>The verdict: Same pattern as James &#8211; guaranteed profit by week 10 regardless of performance, then week 11 is the cliff when the 21 drops out. </p>



<p>The difference is the entry price: at £5.34m, Kroupi has more room to grow if he&#8217;s genuinely good.</p>



<p>A true 6-point-per-game player at £5.34m is underpriced &#8211; he should settle around £6.80m-£7m. </p>



<p>A 10-point player would be a steal.</p>



<p>I&#8217;m not convinced he&#8217;s a genuine 6-point player yet &#8211; needs more evidence. </p>



<p>But at £5.34m? </p>



<p>The upside&#8217;s there if you believe. </p>



<p>Lower risk than James given the entry price, but I&#8217;m personally sitting this one out until I see more consistent output.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What I&#8217;m Doing This Week</strong></h3>



<p>Avoiding the trap: I&#8217;m not convinced on Kroupi, Ugochukwu, or Acheampong long term. </p>



<p>They&#8217;ll rise in the next two weeks thanks to their recent hauls, but I&#8217;d have to flip them after that. </p>



<p>Not my style &#8211; I&#8217;d rather back players I believe in. </p>



<p>Been burnt too many times this season chasing quick flips.</p>



<p>Taking the James punt: Those fixtures I mentioned give him a real shot at 8-10 points per game. </p>



<p>If he delivers, I&#8217;ll profit. </p>



<p>If he doesn&#8217;t, I&#8217;ll bail before week 11 when the 33 drops out. </p>



<p>Clear plan, clear exit.</p>



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<p>The Bruno upgrade: I&#8217;m looking at upgrading Reijnders after his 59-minute sub. </p>



<p>Bruno Fernandes looks cheap at £8.9m whilst averaging 8.5 points per game. </p>



<p>Here&#8217;s the thing &#8211; he&#8217;s missed two penalties this season (-12 points total). </p>



<p>Remove those misses, and he&#8217;s averaging 10 points per game. </p>



<p>If he&#8217;d scored those penalties, he&#8217;d be averaging 12.5. </p>



<p>Yes, I know football and stats don&#8217;t work like this, but those penalties feel like an anomaly. </p>



<p>I&#8217;m jumping on. </p>



<p>Call it naive optimism or statistical gymnastics &#8211; either way, I&#8217;m backing him to deliver.</p>



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<p>Smokey pick for the diehards: If you&#8217;ve made it this far, check out Florentino Luís. </p>



<p>-4 breakeven for Burnley, mopping up everything at CDM. </p>



<p>Base points off the charts. </p>



<p>Not sexy, but profitable. </p>



<p>That&#8217;s Supercoach in a nutshell.</p>


EPL Supercoach | Cracking the code to pricing and breakevens

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