Spy Talk: Answering the big questions, Rd 9

Legends!



How are we all? We are getting further into the thick of things and as we edge closer to the Origin period, overall players should be making sure every trade is either setting them up for extra bye round coverage (Round 13 or 17) or if not a bye player are you getting a bona fide keeper or genuine money-maker?



I think these three things are imperative and if it’s not one of those it’s probably not worth burning the trade.



Let’s jump straight into some hot topics / issues and see if we can’t get that ranking soaring!



<ol type="1"><li>Can I upgrade to someone who doesn’t play the first bye?</li></ol>



Absolutely! But as long as it is justified. This week I’m bringing in Harry Grant for Connor Watson.



This goes against the norm of preparing for the bye period and in a normal situation I would never trade Connor who is ticking along nicely and plays Round 13.



But Harry is outstanding and the math supports it if my predictions are right (obviously this is guesswork).



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Harry Grant has four games before the first bye and Connor has five games including the bye. I am envisioning (hoping) HG averages 85-95PPG in those four weeks which would mean he scores between 340-380 points, whilst Connor I am predicting to average 55-65PPG which would be 275-325 points.



Basically I can get a POD elite Hooker in now and see if he can deliver above and beyond but at the least I’m looking for an extra 15-100 points over the five rounds!



On the flip side I wouldn’t bring someone in who I think might average only a little more than the player you are dropping because with the bye included the lesser player may just outscore them and make the trade worthless.



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2. One of my better players has had a quiet week or two. Time to panic?



Definitely no! Take Kalyn Ponga for example who I traded in last week over Tommy Turbo. Sure Turbo may well end up the better option, but it’s way too early to tell.



Ponga could easily score 160 in one of the coming weeks and Turbo could go sub 60. That’s 100 points back in one weekend. Essentially what I am saying is don’t sell a gun or worry about one poor performance, especially if a player was in a badly beaten side and lacked opportunity. Only sell him if you think it is going to continue.



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3. Always back upside!



It’s fine to lock in some safe guys who may be considered boring, but when in doubt and trying to split two players myself and Tim Williams (as well as others..) are huge advocates for taking the guy with the upside.



Upside means that a low score can be erased in one half (see David Fifita hat-trick in 25 minutes!) and a score of 100+ or more can send you flying up the rankings.



It’s what wins Supercoach and head-to-head matchups! Another example of a guy I love this year is Alex Johnston who I’m sure will score 3, 4 or even 5 tries at some stage this season.



Ideally I will sit him though against tougher opponents if I have the coverage as he can go very low, but a 150 will fix up a 15 very fast!



As a key note however, this doesn’t make someone like Tohu Harris any less attractive if you need to lock in a solid 65-75 each week.



At the end of the day the best average is still what you need, but again as a tiebreaker it’s upside every day of the week over someone who will grind away a score each week but doesn’t have attacking stats in him.



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4. Can low breakevens be deceptive?



In short, sometimes yes! Take for example a guy who has 130-160 in his rolling average like Isaako from last weekend. There is nothing wrong with buying him now with a breakeven of 2, but be aware that whilst he may well make $100-150k across the next two weeks, once that big score of 156 rolls out of his three round average his breakeven could skyrocket.



By the time he plays the Round 13 bye for you he may well be back to the same or a similar price to right now, whilst not necessarily scoring you that many points.



Now this is just an example, but with a couple of tricky games coming up before the bye this is what could potentially happen with Isaako, so don’t just buy him just for cash if you think someone else will score better across that period. Across 5-6 weeks always get the guy who you think will score the most.



As a side note, there is the option to trade in a guy like this, play him for two weeks then sell for a huge profit, but you don’t want to be doing this too often with limited trades, only if you really need a quick cash grab and cheapies aren’t available.



5. Bye Numbers



As a rough guide I am looking at having somewhere between 13-15 for the first bye week and hopefully 13 in the second.



I will however not bother wasting a trade if it means getting a guy who likely will only score 30 or less. I probably want 40+ to be able to justify it.&nbsp;



More on this next week with a big look at bye-planning targets, those who may make Origin and are therefore risky trade ins, guys who may get rested / reduced minutes over the Origin period and those who may get themselves a role over one of the two bye rounds. Watch out for this!



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6. This Week&#8217;s Moves



This week I am going to trade in Harry Grant for Connor Watson. I can’t pass up Harry now he is starting and I hope Watson doesn’t suddenly start playing 70-80 minutes or I’ll need him back.. It’s a risk I’m willing to take to try and get into the top 100.



The other trade is a similar POD play with Schuster to Adam Doueihi. He plays the bye and has some decent match ups coming up, so I’m taking a calculated flyer before turning him into Cody Walker in Round 14.



Captaincy wise I’m still not sure, but I’m thinking maybe Harry Grant VC &amp; skipper David Fifita. The other option is of course Cleary!



Good luck this week everyone..

Spy Talk: Answering the big questions, Rd 9

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