Decision Time: Answering the big questions


<ul><li><strong>SQUAD BREAKDOWN:&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/2020/09/15/squad-breakdown-round-19-team-insights/" target="_blank">Round 19 team insights</a></strong></li><li><strong>SUBSCRIBER SPECIAL:&nbsp;<a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="http://13.210.220.211/podcast/subscriber-special-question-and-answer-rd-19/" target="_blank">Question and answer</a></strong></li></ul>



<p>SC Playbook people, </p>



<p>How are we all coping?</p>



<p>It’s carnage and there may be more incoming!</p>



<p>I can’t say we didn’t see it coming guys and girls. I have
spoken weekly in this article about only trading if absolutely necessary. </p>



<p>And with key restings/outs in the form of Teddy, Haas, Mann,
Api, SST and more I hope you still have a trade or two left or at least
coverage on your extended bench. </p>



<p>This is even more amplified by the fact that Penrith could potentially rest three or four guns. </p>



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<p>This is in no way being reported, but a look at the extended
bench and their position on the ladder suggests it could happen this week or
otherwise next. </p>



<p>In fact I’m sure they will need to get some 80 minute run
into at least Matt Burton, Charlie Staines and Kurt Capewell over the next two weeks
just in case they are needed come finals. </p>



<p>Tyrone May could also slip into the halves as he may be next
man in line. This means popular players Cleary, Mansour, Luai and Yeo could all
face a week off or see limited game time. </p>



<p>Only time will tell! The only reason I see it not happening is if they want to keep momentum at full tilt. But if I’m Ivan I’m giving those guys a breather and getting game time into my very strong extended bench.</p>



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<p>But enough bad news! At the end of the day some of us will
have needed to trade and may have run out, whilst others might just have been
caught up in the thrill of using that addictive trade button (I get it, it’s
hard not to do it at times). </p>



<p>If that’s the case you simply need to hang on as much as
possible. If you only have limited players it is advisable to play everyone in
your squad as early as possible and not leave guys too late in the week unless
you need to. </p>



<p>The reason for this is that you don’t want one or two guys who have already played early in the week sitting as non playing reserves in case there are late scratchings.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Tactics</strong></h2>



<p>Tactics wise it is exactly the same as last week. Only use
trades if you need to and don’t go too sideways if you do trade. </p>



<p>Of course there is no issue with trading if you need to win
head-to-head games or you are super short in numbers. </p>



<p>An example I’ll give for myself is that I currently have two
trades up my sleeve and 19 players this week. </p>



<p>I held off on Cam Smith last week because I needed to save
trades (damn!), but the logic was there and the logic is there again. </p>



<p>I can trade Cam Murray to Smith if I like, but what I need to decide is whether or not to save that trade for potential last weekend chaos or to make the move now. </p>



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<p>It will certainly be frustrating if Murray scores against
the Dogs and Smith gets an early shower and I have burned one of my last two
trades. </p>



<p>It’s a big decision indeed, but the logic says maybe I
should hold as it could come in huge for the last weekend! </p>



<p>I honestly don’t know what I’ll do yet and Smith may well
join my squad, but it’s a good example of carefully considering every move you
make at this time of year (and any time of year for that matter).</p>



<p><strong>Note –</strong> There is also the train of thought that with
19 players (20 with Teddy next week) and &nbsp;therefore reasonable depth that I can throw
the kitchen sink at it and try to hold on next week if carnage ensues. </p>



<p>This is a viable option and I may well take this approach. Murray-Smith
and Teddy-Turbo perhaps? </p>



<p>Tempting!! Just be very very careful if you only have 17-18 fit players as you don’t have the depth that some others have. As usual it depends on your individual circumstances.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>To Tommy or not to Tommy?</strong></h2>



<p>Speaking of Turbo. He is back (pending final team lists
Saturday at 2pm) and what a time to return! </p>



<p>At home on a Saturday arvo he is extremely tempting, particularly
with Teddy out which means Teddy only has one more game left and it’s against
Souths who can be a little flakey in defence but are in form generally. </p>



<p>Put it like this, a trade from Teddy-Tommy nets you $120k if
this is beneficial to you and means you get two full games of Turbo (barring
another setback which of course is possible).</p>



<p>He will be fresh and is a bloke that could easily average
100PPG in two arvo matches to end the year and will be a big POD so it has to
be strongly considered. </p>



<p>Mathematically it looks a little like this if we were to estimate some scores:</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Projections </strong></h2>



<p>Turbo in the next 2 weeks = Range of 50-140 points this week
+ 50-140 points next week = 100-280 Points</p>



<p>Running your fourth reserve and Teddy in the next two weeks
= fourth reserve 25-80 points + Teddy 60-140 points = 85 – 220 points</p>



<p>For most squads, Turbo will be replacing your fourth reserve
if you do make the trade, so you get the difference between those guys this
week and then it’s a shootout between himself and Teddy next week. </p>



<p>Looking at the range of where they are likely to score I
would have Turbo as anywhere from 100-280 points over a two week period. </p>



<p>It all then really comes down to your last reserve. If it’s
weak after the team list chaos I think it is a great option to get Turbo, but
if you have a strong last reserve it becomes much more of a risk. </p>



<p>Tommy and Teddy are probably reasonably similar next week in
terms of projected output given their match ups and time of their games, so it
comes down to this week. </p>



<p>Tommy scoring say 110 instead of a fourth reserve score of
30 is absolute gold!!! Whereas Tommy scoring 60 odd when your fourth reserve
would have got you a solid 60-70 anyway means a wasted trade. </p>



<p>Unfortunately we can’t predict the future so you need to decide for yourself what Turbo scores on his return this week. </p>



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<p>It is noted there is injury risk, but it is also noted that
Tommy can and has returned in a big way previously.</p>



<p>In the 2019 season in Round 3 he put 152 on the Warriors in
his first game of the year, then 167 on St George in Round 14, which was two
weeks after an eight week layoff and then 106 points against Parramatta after a
two week layoff. </p>



<p>Given how much he loves Brookvale and the potential upside I
think I am going to go for it! </p>



<p>It means sitting Nicho Hynes which has the potential to hurt,
but hopefully he scores lowish again. </p>



<p>Another factor is that the SC Playbook Preliminary Final this
weekend sees myself pitted against Mr Tim Williams. </p>



<p>He may be a man inform, but I think come crunch time in big games I’ll knock him off with experience and Turbo may well be the reason.</p>



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<p><strong>Caveat –</strong> Tim will be much more concerned about $50k
and 1<sup>st</sup> in Overall then our prelim result, but that doesn’t mean I’m
not coming for blood!</p>



<p>There is so much more we could discuss but it has been
pretty well covered on the podcast. </p>



<p>In the end it comes down to thinking through your trades and
trusting your gut! </p>



<p>Good luck to those up high in the overall standings,
everyone in their prelim finals and all those draft players looking to seal the
title!</p>


Decision Time: Answering the big questions, RD 19

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