Quantium data analysis: True player ownership stats, Round 19

Actuary Adam Driussi provides player ownership breakdowns to allow you to differ your side from those atop the rankings.


Analysing the top 100,000 NRL Supercoach teams after Round 19

We are back!  Apologies for the past couple of weeks but was in the US and UK on holidays so we had to fly blind without ownership stats.  Hopefully everyone managed to navigate the bye period successfully.  Round 20 provides one final hurdle – more on that later.

The final bye round means that we’ve seen some major player ownership changes in some positions over the past 2-3 weeks.  Let’s take a look at the ownership of each player.

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Fullback (non-DPP)

The table below sets out the proportion of teams in the top 100, top 1,000, top 5,000, top 10,000, top 20,000 and top 100,000 that own each fullback.

Clint Gutherson is now the most owned fullback in Supercoach – wow!  Even more interesting is that Scott Drinkwater and Will Kennedy are the next two most popular amongst the top 1,000 teams.

Less than 20% of teams now own Jahream Bula whilst James Tedesco and Reece Walsh are in genuine POD territory.


CTW has seen a couple of major changes in the past few weeks.  Ronaldo Mulitalo is now owned by a whopping 77% of the top 1,000 and Tyrone Munro is owned by 62%.  CNK is owned by over 50%, Val Holmes is back up to 31% ownership and Siosifa Talakai is now owned by 23%.

In contrast, players like Billy Smith (76% to 18%), Sunia Turuva (40% to 8%), Paul Alamoti (10% to 1%), Will Warbrick (11% to 2%), Tyrone Peachey (17% to 3%) have been sold off heavily.


Kalyn Ponga is now owned by 82% of the top 1,000 teams.  50% of the top 1,000 held Cody Walker whilst just 19% own Cameron Munster.  Josh Schuster has fallen from 86% ownership amongst the top 1,000 to 21%.


Only 46 of the top 20,000 teams do not own Nicho Hynes.

Shaun Johnson is now owned by 40% of the top 1,000 versus 43% for Mitch Moses. 


Heading into Round 20, the 2RF on everyone’s lips is David Fifita.  46% of the top 1,000 (and 42 of the top 100) currently own Fifita.  The remaining 54% are sweating on news about whether he plays this weekend, and if so, how to bring him in.

Interestingly, the bye schedule means that many teams are running very similar 2RFs and FRFs.  Over 90% of the top 1,000 own each of J’Maine Hopgood and Briton Nikora.  A further 85% own each of Joseph Tapine and Tohu Harris (both duals).  Another 60% own John Bateman, 59% own Payne Haas and 54% own Jacob Preston.

The implication is that who you trade out for Fifita essentially becomes your anti-POD decision.

Cameron Murray is now owned by just 1% of the top 1,000 and is down to $482k in price.  If it wasn’t for Souths having two byes in the next 8 weeks, he’d be a steal at that price.  What a handy backup to have.  It’s crazy to think that Jackson Ford to Cameron Murray could net you nearly $40k.


There hasn’t been a huge amount of movement in FRF ownership over the past few weeks.  AFB has increased from being owned by 21% of the top 1,000 to 40% and each of Tapine, Harris and Tino have increased by a few percent. 

A few teams (including me) jumped on Max King as a cheapie dual 2RF/FRF last week including 7 of the top 100 teams.  King strikes me as a solid backup if needed but provided me a much-needed dual in 2RF so I could move my other duals around as needed. 


I suspect most teams are planning for Harry Grant as their starting hooker for the end of season and only starting one hooker each week.  65% of the top 1,000 teams now own Harry and the remainder are likely planning when to buy. 

Blayke Brailey did a great job last week for the 10% of leading teams who brought him in (thank you Blayke!).  Soni Luke remains a thorn in the side of the 15% of teams who are still stuck with him.

Results – Players unavailable in Round 20

With three key teams on bye this weekend, round 20 is the last of the challenging bye rounds to negotiate.  On average, the top 1,000 teams have 17.7 players available for selection pre-trades this week.  The top 100 are slightly better positioned with 18.0 on average.

5% of the top 1,000 (and 17% of the top 20,000) have 15 players or less available pre-trades.

Any late outs to Origin stars such as Grant, Fifita, Moses, Munster or Holmes would introduce even more challenges.

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