Team lists: Supercoach round 5 squad analysis

2020 NRL Supercoach runner-up Tim Williams analyses the squads dropped for round 5 of the 2023 season.


Last Sunday, I’d settled into the lounge after a big and very enjoyable week in Cairns for the final stop on the Bloke in a Bar regional tour.

My Supercoach side was going along nicely and the Raiders were about to kick-off as favourites against the Knights. I had a beer in hand, life was good.

Fast-forward a few hours and the Green Machine had been towelled by the Knights, and Nicho Hynes single-handedly destroyed my Supercoach round.

Touché Nicho, you’re one mighty fine specimen, and an even more fine Supercoach asset.

An asset I of course did not own.

A tough one to stomach for non-owners, but don’t freak out, a player you own that most don’t could punch out a 150 this week and you’ll be back to square, so chill.

There’re 23 rounds left to come good!

The Cooma Stallions scored 1,090 last round, dropping a few spots to 21k overall.

Far from ideal, but off the back of plays like holding key CTW money makers and getting in Walsh and Hammer for their rises, I’m extremely happy with how I’ve set-up my squad outside of the Nicho-sized hole in it.

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A lesson was reinforced in round 4, give your CTW cheapies a chance to shine!

They all have low scores in them, but we always say that you need to wait for the tries to roll in.

Khan-Periera knocked out 117 points on the weekend, he’s now made $171k and has a breakeven of -70.

Warbrick belted out 88 points, he’s made $79k and has a breakeven of -18.

Lots sold off the back of slow starts to both.

I’ll reference base stats a lot below, for anyone unsure, this is a player’s runs + tackles – missed tackles.

Essentially it gives you an idea of what they might score if they don’t add any attacking numbers to their game.

E.g. Jacob Kiraz based 46 in round 3, so despite recording minimal attack he still scored well.

Josh Schuster on the other hand based 9 in the same round, so if he didn’t assist three tries he’d have been horrific.

This is a major data point I use when considering my trades.

Let’s take a look at the round 5 teams, with squads courtesy of Fox Sports.

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Thursday, 8pm, Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Joseph Suaalii 4. Drew Hutchison 5. Jaxson Paulo 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Brandon Smith 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Egan Butcher 12. Nat Butcher 13. Victor Radley 14. Jake Turpin 15. Naufahu Whyte 16. Corey Allan 17. Fletcher Baker 18. Ben Thomas 19. Junior Pauga 20. Sandon Smith 21. Siua Wong 22. Elie El Zakhem

Supercoach analysis: If you held any Roosters players through their bye you may as well stick strong now.

Sam Walker may be the exception and is fine to hold, but if he’s your path to Nicho Hynes or Nathan Cleary he can be moved on.

Brandon Smith scored 54 in 55 minutes against the Rabbitohs, but there was a try and linebreak in that score which isn’t great.

With a breakeven of 69 he’ll be a monitor this week and may be a downgrade from Mahoney or Egan in a couple of weeks if he finds the form we know he’s capable of.

The Roosters next three weeks are tough against the Eels, Storm and Sharks. From there the draw eases up and I’ll be strongly eyeing a discounted Joey Manu (when back from suspension) and potentially others if they find their attacking form.

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Eels: 1. Clinton Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Viliami Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Wiremu Greig 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Ryan Matterson 13. J’maine Hopgood 14. Matt Doorey 15. Brendan Hands 16. Jack Murchie 17. Makahesi Makatoa 18. Jakob Arthur 19. Jirah Momoisea 20. Ofahiki Ogden 21. Toni Mataele 22. Haze Dunster

Supercoach analysis: There’s one more tough game for the Eels who have had a treacherous early season draw, then it lightens up for them.

They face the Roosters this week, then the Tigers, Bulldogs, Broncos, Knights, Titans and Raiders.

They play all three major bye rounds, so from next week they’ll become hot property after an upset win over Penrith in round 4.

Dylan Brown failed to fire for new owners with 47 points to leave his breakeven at 99.

As an elite 5/8 of Supercoach, playing all three bye rounds with no Origin concern, he’ll be a key buy at some stage.

The second coming of Bryce Cartwright is in full flight, making $152k with a breakeven of 1. It’s too late to jump on now as he’ll peak soon, but he’s been a great cheapie.

To state what we probably already knew, J’maine Hopgood is a keeper.

People are jumping on Brendan Hands after a strong debut, but he scored a try in his 56 points and only played 33 minutes. Please don’t go this week on him.

Junior Paulo is out for two weeks due to suspension.

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Friday, 6pm, GIO Stadium, Canberra

Raiders: 1. Sebastian Kris 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Harley Smith-Shields 5. Jordan Rapana 6. Matt Frawley 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Harawira-Naera 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Corey Horsburgh 18. Brad Schneider 19. James Schiller 20. Peter Hola 21. Trey Mooney 22. Jarrod Croker

Supercoach analysis: Very little going on Supercoach-wise at the Raiders.

Joe Tapine scored 67 last week in 56 minutes, with an absurd 65 in base.

The Raiders look to have been given an instruction to not offload at the moment, with just four coming from the game.

This is killing Taps who will be averaging 80+ if he gets his licence back anytime soon.

Jack Wighton is out due to a two game suspension.

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Panthers: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Sunia Turuva 3. Izack Tago 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Moses Leota 9. Mitch Kenny 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Scott Sorensen 12. Zac Hosking 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Lindsay Smith 16. Spencer Leniu 17. Jaeman Salmon 18. Matt Eisenhuth 19. Jack Cogger 20. Chris Smith 21. Kurt Falls 22. Thomas Jenkins

Supercoach analysis: Zac Hosking retains his starting spot after a stunning club debut with 117 points.

He played the full 83 minutes, punching out 64 in base stats!

If he can back it up this week he’ll be a great buy at $459k, but there’s no need to go early as his price won’t change until after round 6.

Luke Garner is out injured which explains the 20 odd minutes last week, while Scott Sorensen starts on the edge.

Liam Martin is also still out with injury, but on last week’s performance I still think Hosking is fairly safe.

While the attacking stats aren’t coming at this stage, Sunia Turuva and Brian To’o based 43 and 44 last week which is exceptional for wingers. Hold tight, the tries are coming.

Poor old Soni Luke can’t catch a break this season, copping a concussion last week that will see him miss round 5.

He’s $257k with a breakeven of 40 when he returns.

I’m eyeing him as a cash grab from Mahoney in a week or two to free cash for Nicho post Sharks bye.

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Friday, 8pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Isaiah Tass 4. Campbell Graham 5. Izaac Tu’itupou Thompson 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Daniel Suluka-Fifita 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jacob Host 13. Cameron Murray 14. Jed Cartwright 15. Michael Chee Kam 16. Davvy Moale 17. Hame Sele 18. Blake Taaffe 19. Dean Hawkins 20. Ben Lovett 21. Taane Milne 22. Tallis Duncan

Supercoach analysis: I mentioned Parra’s tough draw before, well the Bunnies hasn’t been much better.

They face Melbourne this week, then get a slight two-week reprieve against the Dolphins and Dogs who have both looked good, followed by the Panthers, Broncos and Storm.

It makes them a hard team to invest in until they bottom out in price.

Speaking of, Latrell Mitchell is $754k with a breakeven of 127 and a 34 in his rolling average.

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We know he can hit that breakeven in his sleep, however we’re likely to be able to pick him up at a $150-$200k discount on his starting price in a week or two, potentially more if the Storm keep him at bay.

Reece Walsh to him is right on my radar.

Cam Murray has just about bottomed out at $667k with a breakeven of 80.

He’s only averaging 61, but his base of 53 is great. He had 62 in base on the weekend.

I’m warming to snap him up shortly.

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Storm: 1. Nick Meaney 2. William Warbrick 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jonah Pezet 8. Tui Kamikamica 9. Harry Grant 10. Christian Welch 11. Trent Loiero 12. Eliesa Katoa 13. Josh King 14. Bronson Garlick 15. Alec MacDonald 16. Tariq Sims 17. Tom Eisenhuth 18. Grant Anderson 19. Tyran Wishart 20. Jordan Grant 21. George Jennings 22. Jack Howarth

Supercoach analysis: As mentioned earlier, Will Warbrick has a -18 breakeven and has plenty of cash incoming for those who held.

Nick Meaney has flown under the radar during Melbourne’s sluggish start to the year, averaging 72 points per game.

Available as dual CTW-FLB he’s been a great pick up for anyone who started with him.

With a tough three week stretch against the Bunnies, Roosters and Sea Eagles coming up, and Ryan Papenhuyzen due back soon enough, I wouldn’t be investing.

Eli Katoa is a borderline keeper, averaging 77 points per game having played every minute thus far.

Most impressive is that he’s basing 49 per game as we know he’s loaded with attacking potential.

With a breakeven of 14 he’s still a decent buy.

Jonah Pezet is a major talking point this week with a breakeven of -80, projected to make a tonne of cash this week.

The issue of course is the return of Jahrome Hughes next week.

It’s one of those ones where you can gamble on Munster/Hughes missing games for him to get more rises, but if he doesn’t, he’ll sit stagnant on your bench.

Further, surely the goal is to get a Hynes/Cleary halfback combo ASAP! For that reason, it’s an avoid for me.

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Saturday, 3pm, Glen Willow Park, Mudgee

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Christian Tuipulotu 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Josh Schuster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Taniela Paseka 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Haumole Olakau’atu 12. Kelma Tuilagi 13. Josh Aloiai 14. Kaeo Weekes 15. Ben Trbojevic 16. Ethan Bullemor 17. Sean Keppie 18. Toafofoa Sipley 19. Cooper Johns 20. Ray Tuaimalo-Vaega 21. Karl Lawton 22. Samuela Fainu

Supercoach analysis: Here’s a match up I really like for Manly, a day game against an injury-hit Knights. Tommy Turbo is a red-hot skipper option.

With people flocking to Nicho Hynes this week, many Supercoaches will be forced to wait on Reuben Garrick who was initially a key target for many non-owners.

This game matches up terrific for him, running at Greg Marzhew who has serious defensive deficiencies in his game.

I watched last week thinking Garrick had a very quiet game, only to see he still knocked up 71 points without a try in a low-scoring game against South Sydney.

In terms of money-making, he’s not the option, with a breakeven of 81 at $777k, but point scoring upside I love him as a buy. He’s currently in just 19% of teams.

We warned Josh Schuster owners on last week’s podcast that when he scores low, it can be very low, so be cautious when playing him in 17s.

He scored just 26 points, but to his credit he had 25 in base which was a vast improvement on his 9 from the week prior.

Coming up against the flakey Knights right edge, I don’t mind him as a play this week in 17s.

While he’s not an absolute must, at $241k, with a breakeven of -12,  with his ability,  I think he’s pretty close to it.

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Knights: 1. Lachlan Miller 2. Hymel Hunt 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Jayden Brailey 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Jack Johns 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Jack Hetherington 16. Mathew Croker 17. Brodie Jones 18. Dylan Lucas 19. Enari Tuala 20. Dominic Young 21. Simi Sasagi 22. Thomas Cant

Supercoach analysis: Lachie Miller has hit his straps with back-to-back scores of 103 and 98, which sees him sit with a season average of 76 points.

He’s $669k with a breakeven of 1, most importantly he’s available as dual CTW-FLB.

I have more pressing buys on my radar, but it’s hard to knock what he’s done so far so congrats to those who started with him.

Greg Marzhew needs Kalyn Ponga? Plz…

122 points in his first game of the season on the right wing, with 44 in base!

We all know how much of a Supercoach beast he can be, and he delivered in spades against the Raiders.

Job security is the issue though. If he does it again consider, but I would not be going this week.

Mat Croker may be a sneaky cheapie POD play at $319k, breakeven -8, average 53 in 46 minutes at FRF.

However, they have players due back in coming weeks and he’s also benefitted with on field injuries in recent rounds so there’s likely better options.

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Saturday, 5.30pm, WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Dragons: 1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Mathew Feagai 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Jayden Sullivan 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Moses Mbye 10. Blake Lawrie 11. Ben Murdoch-Masila 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack Bird 14. Jacob Liddle 15. Zane Musgrove 16. Toby Couchman 17. Josh Kerr 18. Michael Molo 19. Tautau Moga 20. Jaiyden Hunt 21. Talatau Amone 22. Jack de Belin

Supercoach analysis: No Supercoach relevance here. We spoke about the dangers of Tyrell Sloan on an off day, he scored 15 points against the Sharks and made $48k, but now has a breakeven of 37.

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Dolphins: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Jamayne Isaako 3. Euan Aitken 4. Brenko Lee 5. Jack Bostock 6. Isaiya Katoa 7. Anthony Milford 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Herman Ese’ese 11. Kenny Bromwich 12. Connelly Lemuelu 13. Tom Gilbert 14. Jarrod Wallace 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Ray Stone 17. Mason Teague 18. Poasa Faamausili 19. Kurt Donoghoe 20. JJ Collins 21. Kodi Nikorima 22. Robert Jennings

Supercoach analysis: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow delivered once again, pumping out 60 points against the Broncos to sit with an average of 68.

He’s made $152k the past two weeks and now has a breakeven of 30.

You could easily hold on in the hope of more strong scores and rises, but it looks a decent chance to upgrade to a gun for me.

Ditto Jamayne Isaako who has made $127k and now has a breakeven of 29.

With a nice match up with the Dragons you could hold either player for one more week without too much drama.

Connelly Lemuelu is set to get dual 2RF-CTW positioning when updates drop next week.

He’s $375k with a breakeven of -9 and has looked terrific in recent games.

He’s playing big minutes with Felise Kaufusi out and is a decent buy.

Promising rookie Jack Bostock has been named on the wing to replace the injured Tesi Niu, Jeremy Marshall-King is returns from suspension at hooker.

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Saturday, 7.35pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Jesse Arthars 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Selwyn Cobbo 6. Ezra Mam 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Billy Walters 10. Payne Haas 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Cory Paix 15. Keenan Palasia 16. Corey Jensen 17. Martin Taupau 18. Deine Mariner 19. Brendan Piakura 20. Kobe Hetherington 21. Jock Madden 22. Brendan Frei

Supercoach analysis: Reece Walsh delivered for new owners with 84 against the Dolphins, taking his season average to 95!

He made $101k and now sits with a breakeven of 19.

You can still jump on this week with a great match-up with the Tigers and the Raiders and Titans to follow. However, last week was the time to buy so he’s no must.

We are looking like we may actually make a profit from a trade of Walsh to Latrell in a few weeks, love it!

Payne Haas, same thing, different week, rock solid.

Adam Reynolds struggled for those who bought him, scoring just 27 points last week.

He’s never been overly Supercoach relevant, but stick strong if you invested as hopefully he can bounce back against the Tigers which is every chance.

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Tigers: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. Charlie Staines 3. Brent Naden 4. Asu Kepaoa 5. Junior Tupou 6. Brandon Wakeham 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. David Klemmer 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. John Bateman 13. Fonua Pole 14. Jake Simpkin 15. Alex Twal 16. Justin Matamua 17. Starford To’a 18. Shawn Blore 19. Joe Ofahengaue 20. Tukimihia Simpkins 21. Daine Laurie 22. Alex Seyfarth

Supercoach analysis: Adam Doueihi was okay despite playing restricted with a foot injury against the Storm.

He managed 54 points in the move to fullback.

You can sell if you have no more pressing issues, but having dropped $53k last week, I don’t mind the idea of holding. 54 with a sore hoof isn’t the worst.

Stefano Utoikamanu is likely to peak next week with a breakeven of 39.

He’s made $104k and averaged a very respectable 51 points.

As my second FRF I’ll sit him there for at least a few more weeks while I prioritise change elsewhere, barring any reduction to minutes which could happen at any stage with this squad.

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Sunday, 4.05pm, Pointsbet Stadium, Cronulla

Sharks: 1. William Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Jesse Ramien 4. Siosifa Talakai 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Cameron McInnes 15. Royce Hunt 16. Jack Williams 17. Braydon Trindall 18. Connor Tracey 19. Thomas Hazelton 20. Mawene Hiroti 21. Samuel Stonestreet 22. Tuku Hau Tapuha

Supercoach analysis: “I wonder if Nicho will be restricted with his calf injury in his first game back?” – TW, 21/03/23.

4x try-assists

2x try contributions

5x goals

21x tackles

3x offloads

7x linebreak assists

Yeah good one d***head…

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If Teig Wilton threw a pass back inside to him it’d have been a try on top, while Braden Hamlin-Uele somehow dropped a ball over the line which would have been another try-assist, line assist, goal. Sheesh.

Anyway, do we get him now or wait until after the Sharks have the bye next week?

Personally, I’m going to wait until after the bye and get Garrick.

He won’t change in value, so I’ll just have to stomach sitting through one more game against the Warriors. I might not even watch it.

But of course, he’s the most traded in player this week for obvious reason.

His combination with Briton Nikora was brilliant, who himself is averaging 79 points, with a three-round average of 90 points.

Most impressive for Nikora is his 49 base this season as we know he can attack.

In three seasons prior he had a base of 43, 40 and 42, so albeit a small sample size, this season is a vast improvement and if maintained may turn him into keeper status.

Braydon Trindall returns from injury on the bench in somewhat of a blow to owners hoping for a big cash rise once starting again.

To be honest, you’ll want the Cleary/Hynes combo asap anyway so he can get another price rise then move him on anyway.

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Warriors: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Edward Kosi 3. Viliami Vailea 4. Adam Pompey 5. Marcelo Montoya 6. Ronald Volkman 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Jackson Ford 12. Marata Niukore 13. Tohu Harris 14. Dylan Walker 15. Bayley Sironen 16. Jazz Tevaga 17. Tom Ale 18. Josh Curran 20. Taine Tuaupiki 21. Freddy Lussick 22. Rocco Berry 23. Demitric Sifakula

Supercoach analysis: A devastating blow to those who invested in Tohu Harris last week who played 45 minutes against the Bulldogs before succumbing to injury.

I haven’t seen solid news on that injury just yet, but if he’s out for multiple weeks he’s a sell. If only one week you could hold.

The fact he’s been named is extremely encouraging and suggests he’s a hold even if he misses this week.

Jackson Ford returned from a HIA with a bang, playing the full 80 minutes for 72 points, including 56 in base!

He’s $325k with a breakeven of 22, but once that concussion impacted 4 drops out of his rolling average after this week the breakeven will drop a stack, likely into the negatives if he can back up his efforts against the Sharks.

Due to that score, we can wait a week on buying without too much of a price rise if other trades are priorities, but he does look a good option.

One issue is the plethora of 2RF options who have exceeded expectation this season so it’s getting hard to make room up there, even more so if Hosking kills it again.

Wayde Egan returns from his concussion break and is likely to make some more cash with a breakeven of 19.

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Sunday, 6.15pm, Accor Stadium, Sydney

Bulldogs: 1. Hayze Perham 2. Jacob Kiraz 3. Jake Averillo 4. Paul Alamoti 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Matt Burton 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Max King 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Ryan Sutton 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Jacob Preston 13. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 14. Josh Reynolds 15. Corey Waddell 16. Franklin Pele 17. Jayden Okunbor 19. Jackson Topine 20. Kurtis Morrin 21. Karl Oloapu 22. Braidon Burns 23. Jayden Tanner

Supercoach analysis: Jacob Kiraz continues to go from strength-to-strength, scoring 92 points with 27 runs!

15 of the runs were under 8m for just one point, otherwise his 41 base could easily have exceeded 50.

With his 148 now out of his rolling average his breakeven has balanced out at 68, so he’s peaked in price rises for now, but should be on the radar of all non-owners. Gun!

Reed Mahoney was okay with 55 points against the Warriors.

I’d imagine sides will have far higher priorities than shifting hookers at the moment, so he’s likely a hold for now.

Despite a poor week last week, the move to Harry Grant is viable.

Already owning Grant, I’ll likely keep Mahoney for another week or two then consider Soni Luke pending his return.

Franklin Pele returns on the bench, give us something big fella!

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Cowboys: 1. Tomas Chester 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Brendan Elliot 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Jordan McLean 9. Reece Robson 10. Griffin Neame 11. Coen Hess 12. Heilum Luki 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Jake Granville 15. Mitchell Dunn 16. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 17. Riley Price 18. Zac Laybutt 19. Taniela Sadrugu 20. Jack Gosiewski 21. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki 22. Ben Hampton

Supercoach analysis: I’ve seen a few jumping off Val Holmes which surprised me.

While he hasn’t set the world alight, he’s averaging 62 points with a solid 30 in base, plus goal-kicking.

He’s had fairly minimal attacking stats by his standards so I’m more than happy to hold at this stage.

If he’s your ticket to say Nicho or Cleary, I’d understand more.

Heilium Luki will be a close watch with Nanai out, if he plays well over the next fortnight I suspect he’ll keep the edge spot over Coen Hess when Nanai returns.

Surprisingly there’s very little happening at the Cowboys at this stage with Supercoach relevant players in Cotter, Drinkwater and Nanai all out.

SuperCoach Team Scoring

Via SC Playbook reader, Dylan

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