SC expert, commentator, 2x top 350 overall finisher
January 23, 2023
Well we’ve made it. SuperCoach is always about the marathon, not the sprint. And depending on your trade ins over the last few weeks, you might either be sprinting or limping to the finish line. Unfortunately for the Spicemen it is the latter. Chasing high-risk batting options since round 10 has only caused me pain and gotten several players on the ‘never again’ list – I am looking at you Travis, Marnus and Josh ‘King’ Brown.
Those who planned ahead by holding the popular Scorchers targets saw mixed results in Round 12. Ashton Agar, Lance Morris and Jason Behrendorff only playing one of the two games hurt, and POD bats like Bancroft and Eskinazi went huge. Likewise the Heat contingent also saw mixed results – if Michael Neser had scored 3 in game 1 of the their double, there would’ve been plenty of people reaching for the ‘delete team’ button with 28% of coaches in the Top 5% on him as a straight C.
For one final time, let’s take a look at the SuperCoach scoring trends for all teams so far this season to see where the good match-ups might be:
Average SuperCoach points scored and conceded per game – Whole Season and 5RA
Round 3 DGW: Hobart Hurricanes vs Sydney Sixers & Brisbane Heat (Blundstone Arena & Launceston Oval)
Background: I wrote this in round 8 – “The ‘Canes were one of the dark horses poised to take the competition by storm this summer but have so far failed to fire many shots. They boast a lot of big reputations but have been let down by a lack of wicket-taking bowlers and misfiring openers.” I do not see any reason to edit.
Form: The Hurricanes are middling. They’ve not won an away game all season and will be desperately trying to score two wins to give themselves the best chance at finishing top 5. They’re 2-2 in their last four matches, but the two victories came from matches on the Apple Isle.
Opponents: The Sydney Sixers are on a tear and are conceding only 308 points per game in their last five matches – that’s incredible. They’re also punishing opposition to the tune of 529 points per game. This basically means their batters and bowlers are both elite and a potential nightmare for opposition teams.
The Brisbane Heat are a mixed bag – a winning streak in real life hasn’t translated that seamlessly to SuperCoach and they’re ranking 6th in attack and middle of the table for defense. The batters from the Heat have scraped together some totals that their bowling unit has done well to effectively defend.This shapes as an even match-up with the sides round 12 games going to the wire.
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Grounds: Blundstone arena has been far from the batters paradise we expect – first innings totals so far this season have been: 122, 177, 131 and 135. That’s an average of just 141 runs. Conversely, a lot of wickets have fallen at the ground with 59 taken from the four matches for an average of 14.75, which is quite high. This may indicate that bowlers are the direction to lean towards.
Launceston has only hosted one match to-date this season, but it was a typically high-scoring affair with 172 runs scored in the first innings and 15 wickets falling. This is usually a good ground for the batters, which could bring in the high-powered line-up for the Canes.
Good one to target?: On the stats this one shapes as a tricky week. A low-scoring ground for match 1 against a powerhouse side doesn’t look that appealing for batters or bowlers, but statistically might push the bowlers slightly ahead. Game 2 appears to be the more favourable match-up against a mediocre Heat outfit and could be a shoot-out with the bat. With the presence of weather around for Game 1, it could be viable to look elsewhere at single-game targets (more on this below).
Best Bat: Matt Wade, Ben McDermott
Best Bowler: Nathan Ellis, Paddy Dooley, Riley Meredith
Matt Wade: has made it to 20 in three of his last four matches and comes in at an affordable price. We know batters are high-risk, but he will be popular.
Ben McDermott: Just 9 runs from his last four matches, including two ducks. Just 86k for the fallen gun who loves a DGW. Looms as a really strong anti-pod candidate for those who don’t own.
Caleb Jewell: has come back to earth after his heroics mid-season. Hasn’t gone over 20 in his last three digs but will be popular due to what he showed
Tim David: Quietly having a stellar season for the ‘Canes. Averaging more than any other batter in the side, which is some achievement given he is coming in at five. A genuine option for the DGW given he is also bowling in most matches.
Nathan Ellis – highly owned and most likely to be a popular VC target.
Riley Meredith – an enigma. Can go big or small. But will be extremely highly owned.
Paddy Dooley – candidate for cheapie of the year, and unlike all other spinners is bowling the right overs to take wickets. If named for game 1, he’s a big target. Averaging 61 for the season which is right on ‘gun’ territory
Faheem Asharaf – has been quietly averaging decently, but inflated by taking a lot of catches. Not the worst option and has shown some flair with the bat.
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Hobart hasn’t delivered consistently enough for me to want to go too heavily towards them but at this time of the year, there’s not a lot of people I don’t own that I want in my team. Nathan Ellis and Riley Meredith should do enough to score 60+ across two matches, while the batters – aside from Matt Wade and Tim David – are not in good touch.
At least one of my trades will go towards owning the GOAT, Will Sutherland, and it’s a lottery after that, but I may chase PODs rather than play it too safe given my rank decline last round. Swing for the rafters!
SGW PODs to watch in round 13 – numbers from the top 1%
Based purely on match-ups, Heat and Renegades batters appeal to me. If Sixers and Canes are uninterrupted tonight it does make looking at Sixers players less appealing, knowing that the double will go unaffected.
Shaun Marsh, 0.2% owned with a 46 season average. Looked in awesome touch last match and up against a hapless Strikers bowling unit, could go big.
Sam Hain, 0.3% owned and coming off a huge double game week. Batting at four, but that has translated well to chances to bat in the surge
Todd Murphy, 0.3% owned and 54 average. Up against a few lefties in the Hobart line-up will suit him.
Cory Rocchiolli, 0.5% owned, 58 average. Up against the lefties from the Strikers will suit
Aaron Finch, 1.5% owned, 38 average. Looked awesome at times against the Scorchers.
Tom Rogers, 1.5% owned, 57 average. Just keeps getting it done.
Steve O’Keefe, 3.4% owned, 58 average. Not the greatest match-up on paper but just keeps getting it done.
NCN, 4.4% owned, 58 average. Flown under the radar all year but almost back to gun status
Ben Dwarshuis, 5.2% owned, 58 average. See above description for NCN
Marcus Stoinis, 5.6% owned, 41 average. Bat only and against the Thunder strugglers
Joe Clarke, 8.4% owned, 46 average. Always a threat of going large.
Will Sutherland, 14% owned, 53 season average. Did you know that behind Smith, Short and Abbott, Sutherland is now the fourth most expensive player in SuperCoach. I am sorry for ever doubting the great man.
Beau Webster, 22% owned, 55 average. Been there or there abouts all season.
Steve Smith, 25% owned, average is off the charts. Can you afford him? Can you afford not to own him?