Strategy Playbook: Who to sit/start in Round 9?

We take a deep dive into the projected output of fringe 17 players to help you decide who to sit and start in your weekly team.

Strategy Playbook

Is start/sit the most underrated area of SuperCoach?

These decisions can have as much impact on overall scoring as trades and captaincy.

However, they’re perhaps a little less exciting, being players on the fringe of our 17s. They can also be excruciating when they backfire, resulting in a giant score on our bench staring us in the face all weekend.

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I’m looking to build this as a weekly article looking at these decisions.

First off, thanks to ‘3 Wise Draftmen’[i], nrlsupercoachstats.com[ii] and Quantium[iii] for their amazing stats, which I’ve referenced for this analysis.

The 3 Wise Draftmen provide weekly position scoring stats across the season, as well as for the last 3 rounds and 5 rounds. The nrlsupercoachstats.com website provides comprehensive stats in almost any SuperCoach category you can imagine.

The Quantium stat analysis looks at player ownership, specific to segments of SuperCoach rankings. All of these are weekly must-reads in my opinion.

So now onto the decisions. I’ve chosen the most owned players based on Quantium’s analysis. I’ve then ranked players who I consider as being borderline plays in SuperCoach 17’s this round.  

I’ve then taken a look at each player’s floor, based on the following statistics from nrlsupercoachstats.com:

DescriptionStatistics
“Lower Floor”Base (hit-ups & tackles) – negatives (errors etc.)
“Mid Floor”Base (as above) + power (tackle breaks & offloads) – negatives
“Upper Floor”Base (as above) + power (as above) + kicking (goals, forced dropouts, 40-20s) – negatives

Reserves

I’ve ranked Curran at the top of this list, based on his floor and matchup. He’s shown the ability to get attacking stats and has a favourable matchup on the left edge vs Manly.

So, I have him marginally above Schuster. For those that still own big Tino, I’m tipping him to have a strong game returning from injury, so I have him next.  

Cody Walker could be a sit this week, due to a tough matchup against the Storm. Although, I’m expecting him to play the sweeping role on both sides of the field with Latrell still out, helping his case.

SuperCoaches with Burton may be looking to cash him in soon. However, I think he’s still a decent play this week.

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Simpkin showed great attacking prowess in NSW Cup, although this hasn’t translated to NRL just yet. I have him above Riki and Lodge. I then have Riki marginally ahead of Lodge, based on the left-edge matchup.

I somehow completely forgot Sam Walker in this list! Perhaps it’s because he’s no longer a borderline play, but a set-and-forget in our 17s.

If you think the Eels can contain the Roosters, sitting Sam for this week could be an option. The Blue and Gold were conceding 49 points to right halves for rounds 1 – 7 and Kyle Flanagan only scored 29 against them in round 8.

It would take a strong 17 and a brave SuperCoach off the back of Sam’s last two performances though! Granted his floors are low (lower floor = 14, mid floor = 20, upper floor is around 32). 

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Curran
2Schuster
3Fa’asuamaleaui
4Watson
5C Walker
6Burton
7Simpkin
8Riki
9Lodge
10Condon
11Utoikamanu
12Leniu

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper FloorSeason Ave
Curran45515166
Schuster40505267
Fa’asuamaleaui46535355
Watson43494963
C Walker19262674
Burton26323262
Simpkin45464646
Riki*39434449
Lodge**39484849
Condon29333349
Utoikamanu34383844
Leniu30333335
* Stats for starting games only
**Adjusted for injured game, based on base/power points per minutes & average mins from other games

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1 – 7 opp.
Points allowed
Rd 8 opp.
Points allowed
CurranSea EaglesLeft 2RF7523
SchusterWarriorsLeft 2RF5923
Fa’asuamaleauiTigersProp***6558
WatsonRaidersLock49NA (injury)
C WalkerStormFlb?5953
BurtonSharksRight Ctr5559
SimpkinTitansHk4726
RikiCowboysLeft 2RF6166
LodgeCowboysProp***5843
CondonBroncosLeft 2RF6866
UtoikamanuTitansProp***5054
LeniuSharksProp***5854

***Average of two starting opposition props

CTW

I’ve got Laurie firmly planted in my 17 following last week’s performance. His floor is solid and the matchup against the Titans is favourable. It’s less favourable for Nofoaluma on the wing. However, I still have him above others due to his floor.

I have Hynes above the likes of Kelly and Ferguson. Nicho’s base stats are lower than these two. Nonetheless, he’s averaging 73 when starting fullback for the Storm and the matchup looks decent. This also suggests he could be a trade-in this week for those who don’t have other priorities.

Max Feagai put in a big base stat performance last week for a winger. Consequently, I have him the highest ranked of the cheap CTWs. If you have the likes of Simonsson / Staines / Saab in your 17, they could be a trade to Feagai this week. It is only a one game sample for Max though.

I also have Cini above them as a play. He was leading the NSW Cup in tackle breaks coming into last round, although this didn’t translate to similar stats in the NRL.

Rankings:

RankPlayer
1Laurie
2Nofoaluma
3Hynes
4Kelly
5Ferguson
6Max Feagai
7Cini
8Simonsson
9Staines
10Saab

Player Floors:

PlayerLower FloorMid FloorUpper FloorSeason Ave
Laurie25363763
Nofoaluma26414257
Hynes*18262673
Kelly26353550
Ferguson29414265
Max Feagai**33414151
Cini**14222259
Simonsson***23282829
Staines15192033
Saab13161631
*Stats for starting games only
**One game sample
***Stats adjusted by removing injured game

Player Matchups:

PlayerVsPositionRds 1 – 7 opp.
Points allowed
Rd 8 opp.
Points allowed
LaurieTitansFLB74156
NofoalumaTitansR Wing4155
Hynes*RabbitohsFLB6859
KellyTigersL Centre4128
FergusonRoostersR Wing3632
Max Feagai**BulldogsR Wing7133
Cini**TitansL Wing6249
Simonsson***KnightsR Wing4688
StainesSharksR Wing3217
SaabWarriorsR Wing5930

So, there you have it. A few permutations for start/sit this week, that may also impact your trade decisions. As mentioned earlier, I’m keen to make this a weekly piece. If you have any feedback or suggestions let me know.

Enjoy round 9!


[i] https://twitter.com/3WiseDraftmen

[ii] https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com

[iii] https://scplaybook.com.au/2021/04/28/quantium-stat-analysis-rd-8-vital-numbers-to-beat-the-best/

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