AFL Supercoach 2026: Finding Value in the Early Byes


<p>Another season, another bout of irrational Saints optimism that&#8217;ll be crushed by May. You&#8217;d think after decades of false hope I&#8217;d learn, but here we are.</p>



<p>At least fantasy gives me something to actually compete for. Real September? That&#8217;s for other clubs. I&#8217;ll take my wins in Supercoach where I can get them.</p>



<p>The early bye structure is the biggest hurdle for opening-round squad construction. Ten teams cop staggered byes in Rounds 2, 3, and 4.</p>



<p>The safe play? Load the other ten teams and dodge the headache. Except some of the best value in the competition sits on those exact bye teams.</p>



<p>I ran the numbers. The answer: cheap bye players beat elite ones every time.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Round 0: The Free Assessment Window</strong></h2>



<p>Opening Round runs March 5-8 across four nights:</p>



<p>Thursday March 5: Sydney vs Carlton<br>Friday March 6: Gold Coast vs Geelong<br>Saturday March 7: GWS vs Hawthorn, Brisbane vs Bulldogs<br>Sunday March 8: St Kilda vs Collingwood</p>



<p>None of it counts for your Supercoach score. Your season starts Round 1. But the stats from Round 0 absolutely count for price changes and breakevens.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Rookie Loading Strategy</strong></h2>



<p>Round 0 gives you a free look at basement-priced rookies playing actual AFL football. You see their role, their scoring, their job security before your season begins.</p>



<p>Price changes happen after a player&#8217;s third game. Opening Round players hit game three earlier than everyone else—Round 2 for most, Round 3 for Brisbane/Carlton/Collingwood/Geelong (same as non-Opening Round teams). Either way, you&#8217;ve watched them play before committing.</p>



<p>Keep the winners, dump the disasters.</p>



<p>I&#8217;d rather field one fewer player during a bye week to secure better rookies. That missing score probably wouldn&#8217;t have counted in Best 18 anyway. A rookie generating $250k in cash by Round 8? That&#8217;s how you build toward full premium mode.</p>



<p>The tradeoff is Opening Round teams cop early byes. This restricts how many premiums and mid-pricers I can carry from those same teams. But the rookie cash generation is worth it.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Three-Week Bye Structure</strong></h2>



<p>Round 2: Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong<br>Round 3: Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney<br>Round 4: GWS, St Kilda</p>



<p>All three rounds use Best 18 scoring—only your top 18 scores from 23 on-field players count.</p>



<p>If you field 19 active players because four are on bye, you lose one score: your worst performer that week. The question isn&#8217;t &#8220;should I avoid byes?&#8221; It&#8217;s &#8220;which bye players justify the penalty?&#8221;</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Breakeven Calculation</strong></h2>



<p>I modeled a standard squad and tested every position. Replace a player with someone who has a bye but scores better every other round—when is it worth it?</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>Weekly Score</td><td>Rounds Played</td><td>Total Score</td><td>Best 18 Replacement</td><td>Effective Total</td></tr><tr><td>Player A (no bye)</td><td>100</td><td>8</td><td>800</td><td>&#8211;</td><td>800</td></tr><tr><td>Player B (R2 bye)</td><td>105</td><td>7</td><td>735</td><td>+60 (19th player)</td><td>795</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Verdict: Player A wins by 5 points.</p>



<p>When Player B misses Round 2, Best 18 scoring brings in the next-best player from your squad—typically scoring around 60. So Player B gets 795 points, not 735. A +5 edge barely breaks even at this scoring level.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Breakeven Point by Tier</strong></h2>



<p>How much better does a bye player need to score?</p>



<p>Elite premiums (115-127 averages): Need +8 to +10 points<br>Strong premiums (105-115 averages): Need +7 to +8 points<br>Mid premiums (95-105 averages): Need +5 to +7 points<br>Mid-pricers (85-95 averages): Need +4 to +5 points</p>



<p>Lower scorers need smaller edges because their replacement is only 25-35 points worse. Elite scorers get replaced by players 60-70 points worse. The replacement gap is everything.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Real-World Test</strong></h2>



<p>Take Zak Butters ($654k, priced at 119) versus Hugh McCluggage ($646k, priced at 119). Same price, elite midfielders.</p>



<p>McCluggage plays Opening Round, cops Round 2 bye. Butters doesn&#8217;t.</p>



<p>For McCluggage to justify that bye, he needs to outscore Butters by roughly 9 points per game across seven non-bye rounds. Is he that much better? That&#8217;s your call. But the gap required is enormous.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Mid-Pricer Sweet Spot</strong></h2>



<p>Now compare Nic Newman ($439k, priced at 80) to Jayden Short ($456k, priced at 83). Similar defenders, similar price.</p>



<p>Newman has Round 2 bye. He only needs a 5-point edge per game to justify it.</p>



<p>If you think his role gives him that advantage, you&#8217;re laughing. The threshold is tiny. This is why mid-pricers from Opening Round teams aren&#8217;t traps—they need tiny edges to be worthwhile.</p>



<p>Elite premiums need to be genuinely, significantly better to clear the hurdle.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>My Round 0 Strategy</strong></h2>



<p>Loading every viable Round 0 rookie. If there are eight who look like locks for games, I&#8217;m taking all eight. I&#8217;d rather field 18 active players in a bye week than miss out on a cash cow.</p>



<p>Loading mid-pricers from bye teams if they&#8217;ve got genuine premium upside—fallen guns recovering from injury, role changes pushing them from 80 to 100+. One elite premium maximum, and only if they&#8217;ve got a genuine 9-10 point advantage over alternatives.</p>



<p>The rookies dictate everything else. Round 0 shows me who&#8217;s playing, who&#8217;s scoring, who&#8217;s got job security. Then I build around them.</p>



<p>Stop treating all bye players the same. Mid-pricers need small edges. Elite premiums need massive ones. Know the difference, back your numbers, move on.</p>


AFL Supercoach 2026: Finding Value in the Early Byes

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