NRL Supercoach fixture analysis 2026: Draw winners and losers

<p>Great article as always, Tim. I look forward to this one being released each year. I think it is something often overlooked.</p>



<p>Analysing fixtures is one of the most important factors when selecting your NRL Supercoach team for Round 1.</p>



<p>It’s not rocket science, a soft first five fixtures makes a player substantially more appealing to start, while a tough first five fixtures takes away from their early season prospects.</p>



<p>Of course this is a guide and a guide only, there are so many different factors to take into consideration that will influence strength of schedule.</p>



<p>The obvious one being that some clubs are pegged as big improvers, while others may be entering transition periods with bigger amounts of player turnover and potential regression.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="http://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-2404006" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-640x360.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1-800x450.jpg 800w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p>There’s also home and away fixtures to factor in, as well as day v night games.</p>



<p>You can get as technical as you’d like, but hopefully the below provides a decent guide for your Round 1 research.</p>



<p>What must be noted is that teams typically defender better early in the season, attacking units are clunkier and historically less points are scored.</p>



<p>Big blowout scorelines that occur frequently in the backend of the season tend to be far less frequent.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Most points conceded on average in 2025 </strong></h3>



<p><strong><em>(1 = most conceded, 17 = least conceded)</em></strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Points conceded</strong></td><td><strong>System</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Titans</td><td>22,093 (921PPG)</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Cowboys</td><td>21,860 (911PPG)</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Knights</td><td>21,603 (900PPG)</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Rabbitohs</td><td>21,465 (894PPG)</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>Dragons</td><td>20,717 (863PPG)</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Panthers</td><td>20,650 (860PPG)</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Tigers</td><td>20,632 (860PPG)</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Sea Eagles</td><td>20,488 (854PPG)</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Dolphins</td><td>20,459 (852PPG)</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Eels</td><td>20,311 (846PPG)</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Warriors</td><td>19,971 (832PPG)</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Roosters</td><td>19,664 (819PPG)</td><td>3</td></tr><tr><td>Raiders</td><td>19,582 (816PPG)</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Sharks</td><td>19,524 (813PPG)</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Storm</td><td>18,886 (787PPG)</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Broncos</td><td>18,573 (774PPG)</td><td>4</td></tr><tr><td>Bulldogs</td><td>18,530 (772PPG)</td><td>4</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>It’s a pretty straight forward system, I’ve broken up the table into four groupings based on ladder position of Supercoach points conceded in 2025.</p>



<p>Below, I’ve gone through the first five fixtures of each club and landed on a total number of points, resulting in their strength of schedule ranking for the first five rounds.</p>



<p>If a club has a bye in the first five rounds, I’ve taken their sixth game into consideration.</p>



<p>While home and away fixture hasn’t come into the ranking, or byes, I’ve added it for reference.</p>



<p>A neutral venue includes any that is played away from both regular home grounds, E.g. Penrith v Cronulla in Bathurst in Round 2.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Team</strong></td><td><strong>Difficulty (1 = easy)</strong></td><td><strong>Home / Away / Neutral</strong></td><td><strong>Byes</strong></td></tr><tr><td>1. Tigers</td><td>9</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>Round 1</td></tr><tr><td>2. Cowboys</td><td>10</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>2. Bulldogs</td><td>10</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>Round 2</td></tr><tr><td>4. Storm</td><td>12</td><td>H: 2 A: 3 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>4. Roosters</td><td>12</td><td>H: 2 A: 3 N: &#8211;</td><td>Round 5</td></tr><tr><td>4. Dolphins</td><td>12</td><td>H: 3 A: 2 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>7. Broncos</td><td>13</td><td>H: 3 A: 2 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>7. Sharks</td><td>13</td><td>H: 3 A: 1 N: 1</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>7. Sea Eagles</td><td>13</td><td>H: 3 A: 2 N: &#8211;</td><td>Round 3</td></tr><tr><td>7. Dragons</td><td>13</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>11. Raiders</td><td>14</td><td>H: 2 A: 3 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>11. Warriors</td><td>14</td><td>H: 3 A: 2 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>11. Eels</td><td>14</td><td>H: 2 A: 3 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>11. Knights</td><td>14</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>11. Titans</td><td>14</td><td>H: 2 A: 3 N: &#8211;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr><tr><td>16. Rabbitohs</td><td>16</td><td>H: 1 A: 2 N: 2</td><td>Round 4</td></tr><tr><td>17. Panthers</td><td>18</td><td>H: 2 A: 2 N: 1</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Winners and losers:</strong></h2>



<p><strong><em>Winners:</em></strong></p>



<ul>
<li><strong>Tigers:</strong> They’ve landed the easiest draw based on rival Supercoach points conceded last season. The round 1 bye is less than ideal. Also in their favour is three home games in Sydney, while the away clash to the Rabbitohs is at a neutral venue in Gosford.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li><strong>Cowboys: </strong>On paper, the Cows looks even better than the Tigers outside of the Storm in round 4, which is in Townsville. Two of five in Townsville isn’t ideal, while they do have the trip to Vegas to content with. Nonetheless, it’s appealing.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li><strong>Bulldogs: </strong>The rankings push towards the Dogs, but there are a few negative factors. The round 2 bye is the major issue, followed with a tough trip to Canberra. They face Penrith in round 6, which are the one in the rankings that really stand out to me as a side that’ll defend Supercoach points far better than last year’s ranking suggests. They also have the Vegas factor.</li>
</ul>



<p><strong><em>Losers:</em></strong></p>



<ul>
<li><strong>Penrith</strong>: The Riff have copped a brutal opening to the season. They play just two games at home, which remains CommBank Stadium in Parramatta, and a ‘home’ game in Bathurst. To begin, they face five of the top six best teams at defending Supercoach points in 2025.  </li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li><strong>Rabbitohs: </strong>On paper the Rabbitohs draw isn’t too bad, with games against the Dolphins, Roosters and Tigers. It gets tougher at the back end, with a round 4 bye into the Bulldogs and Raiders (Perth). Not an awful draw, but certainly awkward.</li>
</ul>



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NRL Supercoach fixture analysis 2026: Draw winners and losers

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