EPL Supercoach | Finding Your Ownership Edge


<p>Coming off a huge week (176 points, top 100 for the round, now ranked 509), time to see what everyone around me is doing. </p>



<p>I&#8217;ve dug into the top 10% ownership to find where you should follow the template and where you can gain edges by zigging when others zag.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Template Tier (40%+ Ownership)</strong></h3>



<p>This is where games are won and lost. </p>



<p>Get these calls wrong and you&#8217;re dead in the water.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>Price</td><td>Ownership</td></tr><tr><td>GOALKEEPERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>David Raya</td><td>£8.88m</td><td>59.6%</td></tr><tr><td>DEFENDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Riccardo Calafiori</td><td>£9.04m</td><td>46.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Micky van de Ven</td><td>£10.26m</td><td>41.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Marc Cucurella</td><td>£9.14m</td><td>40.2%</td></tr><tr><td>MIDFIELDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Jack Grealish</td><td>£8.77m</td><td>49.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Moisés Caicedo</td><td>£8.9m</td><td>46.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Bruno Fernandes</td><td>£9.93m</td><td>46.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Declan Rice</td><td>£11.76m</td><td>41.8%</td></tr><tr><td>FORWARDS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Erling Haaland</td><td>£16.76m</td><td>99.3%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>David Raya</strong> </p>



<p>Best defence in the league. </p>



<p>Yes, GK transfers suck, but most weeks have a 40% or higher likelihood of a clean sheet. </p>



<p>That&#8217;s double digits for Raya. </p>



<p>Bite the bullet if you&#8217;re rotating budget keepers.</p>



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<p><strong>Jack Grealish</strong> </p>



<p>My dilemma for the week. </p>



<p>Everton&#8217;s expected goals over the next six games are quite low (only slightly more than one per game), and he&#8217;s about to start dropping in price. </p>



<p>It could be your way to Rice, Caicedo, Minteh, or Bruno, who are my current dream mids.</p>



<p><strong>Declan Rice</strong></p>



<p>Wow, this shocked me. </p>



<p>When did 41.8% of managers jump on? </p>



<p>Oh right, after those back-to-back 18 pointers when he was cheap, when I didn&#8217;t use a transfer and held Grealish on my bench. </p>



<p>Amazing base stats &#8211; 6.89 per week (including appearance points), plus clean sheets and taking lots of set pieces for a top-of-the-table team who are reliant on them. </p>



<p>He&#8217;s high on my list this week.</p>



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<p><strong>Micky van de Ven</strong> </p>



<p>If you&#8217;ve been listening to the podcast, you know it&#8217;s time to go. </p>



<p>Sell while the price is high and cash out the profit.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Risers and Fallers (20%-40% Ownership)</strong></h3>



<p>Some are about to spike in ownership, others are about to tank. </p>



<p>Know the difference.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>Price</td><td>Ownership</td></tr><tr><td>GOALKEEPERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Karl Darlow</td><td>£3.52m</td><td>23.1%</td></tr><tr><td>DEFENDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Gabriel</td><td>£15.3m</td><td>39.9%</td></tr><tr><td>Reece James</td><td>£12.37m</td><td>25.6%</td></tr><tr><td>MIDFIELDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Tijani Reijnders</td><td>£5.41m</td><td>21.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Rodri</td><td>£3.81m</td><td>21.4%</td></tr><tr><td>FORWARDS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Mohamed Salah</td><td>£7.83m</td><td>31.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Antoine Semenyo</td><td>£11.8m</td><td>22.8%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>Gabriel </strong></p>



<p>Very jealous of anyone who owns him, but do we expect him to score six points per game more than Calafiori, or eight points per game more than Saliba? </p>



<p>I&#8217;m not sold on the premium. </p>



<p>For me, I&#8217;ve missed the boat and will get other Arsenal guys to try to cover him. </p>



<p>Well played, owners.</p>



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<p><strong>Mohamed Salah </strong></p>



<p>I&#8217;m still hesitant. </p>



<p>Absolute gimmie of a goal against Villa, but I do like the fixtures after City. </p>



<p>I might ditch Pedro to him next week.</p>



<p><strong>Antoine Semenyo</strong> </p>



<p>Hasn&#8217;t looked as dangerous in the last few games and is leaking money, but has the second easiest fixtures upcoming (Villa, West Ham, Sunderland, Everton) in the next four. </p>



<p>Hold the faith through this run.</p>



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<p><strong>Tijani Reijnders </strong></p>



<p>Hope he&#8217;s gone for you already, but maybe not. </p>



<p>Sell immediately. </p>



<p>Maybe a cash grab swap to Gomez (-16 breakeven)?</p>



<p><strong>Rodri</strong> </p>



<p>Do you let him rot on the bench, or do you try and make some money out of him? </p>



<p>I&#8217;m personally a fan of having only players in my squad I&#8217;d want to play (other than backup GK) or making money. </p>



<p>Right now, Rodri is neither. </p>



<p>Get it done before the fixture congestion over Christmas.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Differential Zone (10%-20% Ownership)</strong></h3>



<p>These are the players about to spike in ownership or the ones to avoid before they cost you.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Player</td><td>Price</td><td>Ownership</td></tr><tr><td>GOALKEEPERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Robert Sánchez</td><td>£5.3m</td><td>17.1%</td></tr><tr><td>James Trafford</td><td>£4.82m</td><td>16.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Guglielmo Vicario</td><td>£6.42m</td><td>11.8%</td></tr><tr><td>DEFENDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>William Saliba</td><td>£7.29m</td><td>19.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Virgil van Dijk</td><td>£6.07m</td><td>19.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Jurriën Timber</td><td>£11.01m</td><td>15.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Daniel Ballard</td><td>£7.73m</td><td>15.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Adrien Truffert</td><td>£8.19m</td><td>14.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Maxime Estève</td><td>£4.97m</td><td>13.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Leny Yoro</td><td>£3.64m</td><td>13.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Daniel Muñoz</td><td>£11.7m</td><td>13.0%</td></tr><tr><td>El Hadji Malick Diouf</td><td>£5.21m</td><td>11.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Marcos Senesi</td><td>£9.1m</td><td>11.4%</td></tr><tr><td>MIDFIELDERS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Eberechi Eze</td><td>£9.16m</td><td>15.6%</td></tr><tr><td>Xavi Simons</td><td>£4.83m</td><td>13.5%</td></tr><tr><td>Ryan Gravenberch</td><td>£9.93m</td><td>13.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Phil Foden</td><td>£8.39m</td><td>13.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Sean Longstaff</td><td>£10.38m</td><td>12.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Jarrod Bowen</td><td>£9.47m</td><td>11.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Dominik Szoboszlai</td><td>£9.35m</td><td>11.2%</td></tr><tr><td>FORWARDS</td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>João Pedro</td><td>£6.39m</td><td>17.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Bryan Mbeumo</td><td>£11.91m</td><td>15.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Bukayo Saka</td><td>£8.66m</td><td>15.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Viktor Gyökeres</td><td>£5.54m</td><td>14.8%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>Buy Now – Before Ownership Spikes</strong></p>



<p><strong>William Saliba (DEF, £7.29m, 19.3%)</strong> </p>



<p>Budget option into the Arsenal defence. </p>



<p>Still feels like a bargain.</p>



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<p><strong>Virgil van Dijk (DEF, £6.07m, 19.1%)</strong> </p>



<p>I&#8217;ll be buying either this week (and benching) or next (Forest, West Ham, Sunderland, Leeds after City this week). </p>



<p>Very solid base stats, just needs the cleans to match it with the Arsenal boys.</p>



<p><strong>Daniel Muñoz (DEF, £11.7m, 13.0%)</strong> </p>



<p>Buy. He&#8217;s my Reece James replacement in a couple of weeks, just need him not to ruin me in the meantime. </p>



<p>Think of him as an attacker with the upside of clean sheets. </p>



<p>If he were a mid, you&#8217;d have him all day.</p>



<p><strong>Dominik Szoboszlai (MID, £9.35m, 11.2%) </strong></p>



<p>I prefer him over Gravenberch. </p>



<p>Almost one point more in base stats per game, and I feel like he&#8217;s just integral to this Liverpool side. </p>



<p>I will want him from next week.</p>



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<p><strong>Avoid &#8211; Traps Waiting to Cost You</strong></p>



<p>All Three GKs <strong>(Sánchez 17.1%, Trafford 16.7%, Vicario 11.8%) </strong></p>



<p>Chelsea defence is overrated (see my article from last week). I&#8217;d ditch Sánchez after the next two fixtures. </p>



<p>Trafford, I know he&#8217;s a loop option, but that £1m could be useful. </p>



<p>Please get off Vicario &#8211; defensive frauds with tough fixtures.</p>



<p><strong>Daniel Ballard (DEF, £7.73m, 15.3%)</strong> </p>



<p>Base stats monster, but shocking fixtures (Arsenal, City, Liverpool, and Newcastle) in the next six. </p>



<p>For that price, you&#8217;d want to play him more. </p>



<p>Jump off ASAP.</p>



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<p><strong>Xavi Simons (MID, £4.83m, 13.5%)</strong> </p>



<p>Sorry, but a failed experiment. </p>



<p>Like Reijnders, trade for a cash grab.</p>



<p><strong>Sean Longstaff (MID, £10.38m, 12.3%) </strong></p>



<p>Would I rather Rice or Minteh? Yes. </p>



<p>Not an urgent trade out, but there&#8217;s better value elsewhere.</p>



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<p><strong>João Pedro (FWD, £6.39m, 17.1%)</strong> </p>



<p>About damn time. </p>



<p>I think he&#8217;s a trade out after Wolves, potentially after Burnley (I&#8217;m worried about the international break between these fixtures).</p>



<p><strong>Viktor Gyökeres (FWD, £5.54m, 14.8%) </strong></p>



<p>Out for one week, but just doesn&#8217;t score enough base for me, hence the low price. </p>



<p>Bite the bullet and upgrade him to Salah or Sarr.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Plays</strong></h3>



<p>I want another big mid &#8211; The choice: Minteh or Rice</p>



<p>Rice: 6.89 base per game, Expected Goals 0.11, Expected Assists 0.18 &#8211; High ownership and has the ability to ruin my rank.</p>



<p>Minteh: 6.5 base per game (crazy high successful dribbles), Expected Goals 0.21, Expected Assists 0.28 + £1.5m cheaper &#8211; Low ownership, not going to ruin me by not having him.</p>



<p>Need to downgrade Rodon to make the upgrade from Grealish:</p>



<p>Either Grealish + Rodon → Minteh + van Dijk (who is benched this week)</p>



<p>Or Grealish + Rodon → Rice + Murillo?/Bradley?/Bassey?</p>



<p>Leaning towards Minteh and just praying to see no more notifications of:</p>



<p>Goal: Gabriel<br>Assist: Rice</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Bottom Line</strong></h3>



<p>Must-owns: Haaland (obviously), Saliba (Arsenal defence on budget), van Dijk (from next week)</p>



<p>Trade out this week: van de Ven (sell while high), Grealish (about to drop), Reijnders (failed experiment)</p>



<p>Differential plays: Minteh (low ownership, elite underlying numbers), Muñoz (attacker disguised as a defender), Szoboszlai (Liverpool&#8217;s engine room)</p>



<p>Your edge comes from spotting these differences before ownership catches up or drops off.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Make the moves now.</p>


EPL Supercoach | Finding Your Ownership Edge

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