H2H Supercoach Finals: How to tackle a H2H match-up

When it comes to Head to Head, there’s many ways to win a match-up. 



Having a deeper squad with 17-certified guns, nailing your Captain or VC or finding the players with a great strength of schedule. 



At the end of the day though, the task at hand is pretty straightforward &#8211; you just need to score more than your opponent.



By now, we’ve got some great data around the best match-ups and who&#8217;s leaking the most SuperCoach points (more on that later) but in this article I wanted to walk through how I plan a weekly Head-to-Head matchup. Hopefully it can give you a guide on how to plan your own match-up.



Context is critical and so I’ll go into detail on my league and opponent scenario so you can see where my thought process comes from. Let’s dive in!



Background



I am in the Top 4 of a 20-man league &#8211; the Salary Sombrero. 



Despite my self coined title of “expert” this is a league I’ve never won and something I’m desperate to do. 



In our Finals, finishing Top 4 in the regular season gives me the second chance. 



Having locked down third on the ladder I take on second place knowing that a win means a bye in round 24 and a loss means do-or-die next round.



A win this week would be nice &#8211; in particular as it would solve a potential headache next week of owning two Storm players (Hughes, Ekat) against the Penrith side. 



But it’s not the be all so if I do lose it’s ok.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">First step &#8211; self-assessment</h3>



The first thing I want to do with my team is setup the best possible 17 I can from the players I own, pre-trades. 



With the Chooks on the bye and some injuries to deal with I am down to 18-fit players to choose from. As a Connor Watson owner, I have Brendan Hands as my starting hooker this week too.



The reason for the self-assessment is to understand where I’m strong and vulnerable in a match-up.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfOPO_ZrGLLvYevLfjG9OD7YHJjNHkKM4pDP3WlRrgfGFnGWmE0Bx1_KDk1xOforcB6J7SJdOfo8Xz_0JiYda4_CgFWlEOasLFAcHK27BsQcBZ4XqngKkCTbgadFIWGZrlkkV-oTNy2Wt8gbwNPm0nYUlxI?key=WEfhdCrvweSAwlkFFO7ARg" alt=""/></figure>



As you can see the team looks solid. With the exception of hooker (Hands) and FRF (Curran) there’s no “fires”. 



With five trades and $325k in the bank I have the chance to make moves. 



The match-ups are also mostly very good for my side with perhaps the exception of the Titans &#8211; Cronulla’s defence has been way better than what people think.



After last weekend’s performance, I want to sell Ryan Papenhuyzen this week as well as I’ve lost faith and if he didn’t meet his break even he could prevent me from being able to afford Tommy Turbo.



In all, the team is in great shape.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 2 &#8211; Compare my side with my opponents</h3>



I’m up against Scuba Steve this week whose won a couple of comps. 



He only plays Head-to-head so is always well geared up for our finals system.



At a glance I know he has a good team that will give me some headaches. 



Before lockout opens though I want to manually review our common and uncommon players and pull together some rough score projections to see if this is a good matchup for me or not. 



Understanding if I’m likely to be in-front, behind or evenly matched will dictate my strategy and how aggressive I go in week 1.



My quick notes on his team:



<ul>
<li>Hooker: owns Watson and Lussick so may need to address</li>



<li>FRF: owns Haas so is likely to address. Most likely to buy Tapine (already owns Cotter)</li>



<li>CTW: Owns Will Warbrick as a POD whose got a tasty match-up</li>



<li>FLB: We both own Papenhuyzen. Not sure if he will try to sell or not</li>
</ul>



With those notes in mind I then plot in a spreadsheet the common and uncommon players based on his best 17. 



I have to make some assumptions based on his sit/starts and likely trades too.



I can project that we will have eight uncommon players who will decide our match-up if we decide to match captains. 



From there, I want to do some projections based on how these players could score this round. 



To do this, I used their averages and also looked at the match-ups. 



I like to be generous with how I think my opposition players will go and conservative with how I think my players will go.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe9pXPJRdtHvvpIdI22HJ0RGOn3E9wE7Y8PTfGvfemiTDd259RQZn4NMks949QTzhGCkVuZPRSMO2OC65lwpD9jr-2ec2HIqiyoRjekCr_UrPmLESm-XvV3fRFWYxuz0a6HXTh4bW2xCUFZsayKI5_lHeA?key=WEfhdCrvweSAwlkFFO7ARg" alt=""/></figure>



After these projections, I feel like this is a match-up that could be very close. 



So I want to start to come up with a plan based on the scenario of the match-up.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 3: Build a scenario plan</h3>



Based on the uncommon players and the projections I can start to make a few assumptions to build some scenario plans. 



It’s crucial to do this with respect to the order of the matches as well to help you in visualising how the weekend will play out.



In this case I have identified Thursday night’s match as being of critical importance for two reasons:



<ol>
<li>The Storm have a hugely favourable match-up which could be one of the best for the round</li>



<li>My opponent owns Papi and Warbrick who are PODs in this match-up. </li>
</ol>



So my scenario plan starts to look as follows:



Option 1:



<ul>
<li>If Papi and Warbrick fail, control the round by C Cleary or matching him</li>



<li>One trade: Papi to Turbo/Ponga</li>
</ul>



Option 2:



<ul>
<li>If he trades Papi to Ponga, match him</li>



<li>Consider switch from Ponga to Turbo</li>
</ul>



Option 3:



<ul>
<li>If Papi and Warbrick go bananas, trade Teddy to Ponga</li>



<li>Change C Cleary to VC, C on Ponga</li>
</ul>



Aside from the common players, Captain and Vice captain choices are going to dictate this match-up.



With my scenario plan started &#8211; noting this could change mid-round or based on his actual trades (which I’ll see once the round commences), it’s time to do my own trade plan.



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 4 &#8211; Work out your planned plans and contingency plans</h3>



This is going to be a close match-up. There’s trades I want to do but I will need to be fluid based on what my opponent does. 



I am definitely trading out Papi it’s just to who. 



Here’s the scenarios:



Options 1: Papenhuyzen to Turbo



My preferred trade as I want to own Turbo for rounds 24 and 25 as I like the Manly match-ups against the Warriors and Tigers those weeks. 



I have the cash to this in one trade but if I held the trade a week I might not be able to.



Option 2: Papenhuyzen to Ponga



Ponga looks to have arguably the best match-up of the week. I do like his draw for the rest of the season, but I prefer Turbo’s draw in 24 and 25. 



If I am more desperate for points, this is the route I’ll take to chase.



Option 3: Papenhuyzen to Turbo, Young to Sami/Gagai



I don’t want to sell Dom Young, but he’s a good guy to flip if I am chasing. 



To get in one of these CTW on field I would need to sit someone who would likely be Max Plath.



Option 4: Papenhuyzen to Ponga, Plath to Nanai&nbsp;



Chasing upside is hard in the second row, but Nanai is a guy who I’d be comfortable owning for the year. 



Pulling this trade would stop me from being able to go Ponga to Turbo next week in all likelihood which is a little frightening to think about.



Option 5: Papenhuyzen to Turbo, Nikora to Nanai



Again this would only be in case of desperation. 



Nikora/Ekat are luxury sells but I feel Nanai has the best upside of any 2RF this week against a weak Broncos left-edge. 



Nikora is highly owned so this would be a way to get a POD from other sides in my league.



Each outcome is based on how the match-up starts and what my opponent does with his Storm players. So pre-planning and knowing what I can afford to do helps me make good decisions in the moment.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 5: Know your skipper choices</h3>



Nathan Cleary is the obvious skipper choice. 



If I was significantly behind on this match-up, I would be confident in going against him but it looks to be close so for now I will stay on him.



With only 18 players &#8211; one of them being Josh Curran who is in doubt &#8211; I am happy to run a loop this week. So I will likely end up VC-ing Cleary and putting the C on my fullback or Val Holmes.



Know your choices. And plan how you will loop. In my case, it’s easy through Curran and Terrell May after the Panther’s game.



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 6: Plan your mind games</h3>



This is the fun part of H2H &#8211; masking your moves from your opponent.



I know I want to trade Papi and playing in the first game of the round, my opponent won’t know that I have traded him so cannot match this. 



Of the different fullbacks I’m looking at bringing in, I can throw some misdirection by bringing in Daine Laurie or Scott Drinkwater to hide my intentions.



I will also start the round with the straight C on Cleary before changing this to a VC before his game kicks off.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size">Step 7: Have fun</h3>



Don’t forget this is just a game. And while I like to plan (that’s probably obvious after this article lol) at the end of the day we aren’t playing for sheep stations so have fun.&nbsp;



Whose got the best match-ups.



By the time we get to the end of the season we have a lot of data to help us make decisions. 



And while looking at the best and worst attacks and defence is great, we can take that even deeper by looking at where sides are conceding the most tries and SuperCoach points.



Like last year, beyond the very own SC Playbook data centre, credit for a lot of these stats needs to go to <a href="https://www.nrlsupercoachstats.com/">NRLSuperCoachStats</a>, <a href="https://www.patreon.com/rubberstats/posts">The Weekly Rubdown Patreon</a>, and the <a href="https://www.patreon.com/RugbyLeagueGuru/posts">&#8216;Ru Crew</a>.&nbsp;



I’ve compared the data for the worst and best defensive edges from a season round average and a 6-round average to track form as well.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXejOzyhNi4xq6qbrZytvY-Ad8SFleFrcvyYf2IqTBls_ZyAQo-eWcjCsFEZSFEoBiXkxKh1X587J5BbisUs3LvYWWyhjgO3B4MQaSbet6hxr_xWvtErA6pQkCn5yDYNTPnbJHuGT_0rh6m5k2RGqEGa3NZP?key=WEfhdCrvweSAwlkFFO7ARg" alt=""/></figure>



There’s some results in here which aren’t unexpected but in general you can draw the following conclusions:



<ul>
<li>Broncos have gone from a hard team to play to one of the softest. they&#8217;re no longer a daunting matchup. Their left edge defense is terrible.</li>



<li>Dolphins have gotten worse. They weren&#8217;t great defensively to begin with but are now conceding a lot of points out wide, especially down their right (Kodi’s edge).</li>



<li>Titans and Cows defence has improved out of sight. Titans are just outside the top 5 best defenses over the last 6 rounds &#8211; no longer easy beats</li>



<li>Raiders have also improved and are no longer easy beats.</li>



<li>Tigers and Eels are the two teams to target on match-ups and should be put to the sword by a good attacking outfit.</li>



<li>The Knights edges are very brittle. This is inflated due to injury outs and some makeshift people holding positions but in general they’re getting smoked in match-ups.</li>



<li>The Sharks, Panthers, Bulldogs Roosters and Storm are the best defensive sides are hardest to score against out wide. This has reversed an early season trend for the Storm who had leaky edges.</li>
</ul>



So let’s have a look at the draw and find some players who could cash in on the run home based on these match-ups:



<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="420" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfdFQ5C5aJy8Pbb2tspAanynvUjYRbn0MLKfL9U8IiAyVlajugtj4d6VHcpwgFIaKCY3evfBQr6plzX6zFBq9TtUkXIv_RE3oW8OTSlWBPrB4uC1cWVqx23MHJBUQfE1-AYYJKAkJDyRrPb-NaMTdAUH6k?key=WEfhdCrvweSAwlkFFO7ARg">



<ul>
<li>The Panthers right-edge attack gets to take on the Eels (A) in 23. After a tougher game against the Storm in round 24, they get to take on the Raiders, Rabbitohs and Titans from 25-27 who have all traditionally been weak against right-edge attacks for the season. This really bodes well for Nathan Cleary, Isaazk Tago and To’o who looks to have landed the right wing spot.</li>



<li>The Storms draw on paper benefits their right edge attack. This should benefit the likes of Jahrome Hughes, Eli Katoa, Nick Meaney and Will Warbrick.&nbsp;</li>



<li>The Tigers against the Knights (Away) and Rabbitohs (H) from 23-24 is good on paper, however they’re still the Tigers.</li>



<li>The Roosters have an awkward bye in round 23, but get to play the Eels, Titans, Raiders and Rabbitohs who have historically weaker left-edge defense based on a season average.</li>



<li>The Knights left edge looks great for the run home with leaky sides the Tigers, Rabbits and Dolphins in their sites.</li>



<li>The Cowboys have two great games upcoming against the Broncos and Raiders who are both weaker on their left-edge. The Raiders have become more staunch since shifting Rapana to the left-wing and putting Savage on the right, but centres are still scoring well against Seb Kris.</li>



<li>The Broncos, despite their troubles, have some nice games remaining against the Eels (25) and Dolphins (26). Deine Mariner and Walsh could combine on that left edge to score well.</li>
</ul>

H2H Finals: How to tackle a H2H match-up

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