Niko's watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 9


<p>Surprisingly, being in Vegas and Vancouver has not stopped my climb up the ranks!  </p>



<p>I was positive I would stuff up a VC or emergency loop, or there’d be a late out, but thankfully my fellow contributor Eddie took the reigns on my behalf.  </p>



<p>Thanks Eddie!  </p>



<p>A season rank of 3,984 has me excited about the upcoming weeks and the byes where I have traditionally done well (knock on wood). </p>



<p>20 trades left (1 boost) and I’m counting four spots to fill before I’m full premium, but the cash generation and rookie availability looks a little dire.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Who I&#8217;m Watching</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Tim English (RUC $654.7k) </strong>– Once I get to full premium I will try and get this guy in over Sean Darcy if I have the trades and money.  He’s clearly the #1 ruck this season and his floor is way better than Shrek’s.</p>



<p><strong>Sam Walsh (MID $615.1k)</strong> – Currently at 39% forward time so a huge watch in the next few weeks.</p>



<p><strong>Noah Anderson (MID $605k)</strong> – 3 round average of 140 after a massive 189 on the weekend.  I’m just not convinced he keeps this up when Touk returns, and he’s expensive now.  Does however have the perfect bye.</p>



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<p><strong>Lachie Neale (MID $593.8k)</strong> – Despite his mammoth 176 a few weeks ago trading this guy out was a good move.  I was always planning on getting him back but his price &#8211; and form &#8211; is in free-fall.  Perhaps after the bye, but perhaps not.</p>



<p><strong>Luke Ryan (DEF $587.9k)</strong> – Averaging just under 120 for the season!&nbsp; The sleeper most are missing but I am surprised 20% have made the jump and are being handsomely rewarded.&nbsp; Not sure I can go there despite his current output.</p>



<p><strong>Darcy Parish (MID $567.9k)</strong> – His price has remained consistent over the last couple of weeks, and he is performing well.  3 round average of 111 has him right in the conversation as a good value trade in option. </p>



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<p><strong>Jeremy Cameron (FWD $558.7k)</strong> – I’m waiting for a couple of poor scores before I consider him.&nbsp; Boy he is good at footy, perfect bye too, but my forward line is stacked, and we may have Gawn as a forward option too soon.</p>



<p><strong>James Sicily (DEF $537.6k)</strong> – Another poor score on the weekend so will be a good trade in after his bye, but avoiding completely might be the play as he no longer has a monopoly on kick-ins.&nbsp; That could change obviously.</p>



<p><strong>Andrew Brayshaw (MID $532.3k)</strong> – Looks to be completely over a little niggle and back to his best.  Clear value, but tricky 3 fixtures coming into the round 12 bye.</p>



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<p><strong>Callum Mills (MID $523.1k)</strong> – Clear spike in CBA’s with Gulden coming out.&nbsp; Could be a great value selection.&nbsp; I’m looking at him as a potential POD over his teammate.</p>



<p><strong>Max Gawn (RUC $512.8k)</strong> – Watching in case he gets FWD status.&nbsp; That would be huge.&nbsp; He’s currently at 38% forward time so above the threshold.</p>



<p><strong>Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $490.6k)</strong> – Zero CBA’s on the weekend was initially worrying, but then he played half back/wing and scored a massive 156!   His ceiling is huge, we know that, and at 40% owned he almost looks a must-have.</p>



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<p><strong>Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $203.9k)</strong> – Has the role we want Constable to have.&nbsp; If he keeps his spot, he could be handy during the byes.&nbsp; Awkward price but could be an option for people who took a chance on a mid-pricer like Chayce Jones.</p>



<p><strong>Josh Weddle (DEF $130.8k)</strong> – The only viable option on the bubble.&nbsp; I’m sick of Hawthorn defenders, but I might be forced into having another one.&nbsp;</p>



<p><strong>Blake Drury (MID/FWD $102.4k)</strong> – A 51 on debut but I’m trying everything in my power to not go early.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Break-even Analysis</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Must-haves</strong></p>



<ul><li><strong>N/A</strong></li></ul>



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<p><strong>Consider</strong></p>



<ul><li><strong>Rory Atkins (DEF/MID $203.9k) B/E -42</strong>:  Could be an option for some.  Very wary he’s not best 22 though.</li><li><strong>Mitchell Knevitt (MID $164.5k) B/E -25</strong>:  Could benefit from Danger’s injury.  Just not sure Danger will be out that long and he’s at an elevated price.</li><li><strong>Josh Weddle (DEF $130.8k) B/E -18</strong>:  I don’t love it but he’s the cheapest guy on the bubble.</li><li><strong>Arthur Jones (FWD $169.1k) B/E -11</strong>:  His scores are improving but his floor is too low.</li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>Errol Gulden (MID/FWD $490.6k)</strong> <strong>B/E 3:</strong>  Huge ceiling and the best price he’ll be for a long time.  Projected to rise over $50k this week.</li><li><strong>Noah Anderson (MID $605k) B/E 9</strong>:  Now or never if you like him.  Looking at you Rainman.</li><li><strong>Dom Sheed (MID $403.3k) B/E 26</strong>:  Not for me but may be tempting for some.</li><li><strong>Jack Ziebell (DEF/FWD $541.2k) B/E 27</strong>:  Ziegull.  Another that is now or never. </li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>Will Powell (DEF $527.4k) B/E 51</strong>:  In a purple patch of form and taking some kick outs.</li><li><strong>Sam Docherty (DEF $509.2k) B/E 71</strong>:  Playing more and more midfield which I don’t love, but he’s at a great price.</li><li><strong>Darcy Parish (MID $567.9k)</strong> <strong>B/E 96</strong>:  Pretty consistent 110-120 performer if that’s what you’re after.</li><li><strong>Callum Mills (MID $523.1k) B/E 116</strong>:  His CBA numbers are up and so is my interest.  Has dropped $120k on his starting price.</li></ul>



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<p><strong>Trade-out Options</strong></p>



<ul><li><strong>Luke Davies-Uniake (MID $516.6k) B/E 161</strong>:  Just not getting it done.  Move to someone who is.</li><li><strong>Brodie Grundy (RUC $532k) B/E 152</strong>:  Must trade as Gawn is the main man.</li><li><strong>Jordan Ridley (DEF $426.3k) B/E 145</strong>:  Been a trade out for some weeks, now injured.  Must trade.</li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>Mason Redman (DEF $438.9k) B/E 121</strong>:  Same as Ridley, playing too accountable.</li><li><strong>Will Setterfield (MID $408.3k) B/E 109</strong>:  I’m not picking on Essendon I swear.  Had his chances to reset his break-even.  Hasn’t happened.</li><li><strong>Fergus Greene (FWD $267.1k) B/E 106</strong>:  Not sure I’ve seen a bigger must trade in my life.</li></ul>



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<ul><li><strong>Will Ashcroft (MID $373.2k) B/E 71</strong>:  You could hold for another week; home game v Ess is appealing but leaning to trading.</li><li><strong>Reuben Ginbey (DEF/MID $284k) B/E 61:</strong>  You may be able to squeeze a little more out.</li><li><strong>Conor McKenna (DEF $306.7k) B/E 57</strong>:  Another you could hold until the bye but has starting dropping in price.</li><li><strong>Oskar Baker (MID $284.2k) B/E 42</strong>:  Those who have held has bled this one dry.</li></ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Tag Watch</strong></h2>



<p><strong>Christian Petracca </strong>– I’m expecting Nash to try and limit him.&nbsp; Don’t think Oliver is taggable.</p>



<p><strong>Tom Liberatore </strong>– Hewett could be on him for the match.</p>



<p><strong>Bailey Dale / Ed Richards</strong> – Ed Curnow could do a job here.</p>



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<p><strong>Lachie Neale</strong> – Has a huge record against the Dons.&nbsp; I think Setterfield could try and negate him.</p>



<p><strong>Errol Gulden</strong> – Aish perhaps tries to run with him?</p>



<p><strong>Nick Daicos</strong> – The whole of GWS</p>


Niko’s watchlist: Trades, breakevens, and tags, Round 9

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