Defenders

S. Docherty CAR $603,600

J. Ridley ESS $504,300

W.Day HAW $362,100

L. Jones WBD $228,100

R. Ginbey WCE | MID $171,300

C. McKenna BRL $167,500,

(D. Wilmot BRL $123,900, C. Constable GCS | MID $123,900)

The defensive line feels like a great place to get a little frisky in 2023!

D1 is an exciting position to pick. I’m putting a line through Jack Sinclair and James Sicily. Happy to upgrade to them if they consolidate as clear-cut top-6 prospects, but my gut feel is that both peaked as SuperCoach options in 2022 and can only go down in price.

That leaves – as I suspect it will for a lot of coaches – a choice between Docherty, Dawson and Stewart. For most of the preseason I’ve had the AFL’s most bizarre captaincy choice [Dawson] sitting there, but the closer it gets to Round 1 the more PTSD I have of watching Doch pump out 124, 121, 138 in the final 3 games of 2022 and not having him in my side.

His role floating across half-back, taking kickouts and pushing up in to the midfield – and doing whatever else he wants in-between – is as good as it gets from a SuperCoach perspective. It’s simple – Carlton are a better side when Doch has the ball in hand. That means his value is assured.

I expect Dawson and Stewart to be must-haves by the end of the season, but there’s enough value in defense that I’m happy to leave them as priority upgrades. I also have slight question marks about Stewart’s role, with the likes of Jack Bowes and Mitch Duncan hovering around half-back stealing his cheap ball.

Unlike Docherty, I’m not convinced that Geelong need Stewart as a connector between their back and midfield lines. Dawson is a gun, but Adelaide are a side in flux and I don’t fully trust their structures week-in-week-out just yet.

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Jordan Ridley, at just $501k and sub-10% ownership, presents as a low-risk, high-reward POD. The 24-year-old (yep, he’s only 24) averaged 102 in 2020 and 99 in 2021, before crashing back to earth with a 92 average and just two 100+ scores last season.

Here’s the thing – Essendon were abysmal defensively last season. Brad Scott’s number one priority as new coach has to be stemming the tide of opposition scoring that saw them concede 140+ points in back-to-back weeks to finish 2022. The easiest way to fix that is to play a high-possession game; the obvious place to control possession is in defense; and the prime candidate for “quarterbacking” a game-style like that is Jordan Ridley.

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Rids is a beautiful intercept mark, but what is often overlooked when assessing his skillset is how composed and effective he is with ball in hand. In what was a terrible year for the club and a disappointing season for him personally, Ridley finished 11th in the AFL for Disposal Efficiency (86%). In 2021 he was 5th (88%). In 2020 he was 2nd (87%). Those are elite numbers for a guy who averaged 18+ disposals in each of those seasons.

In that 2020 season, Ridley was the 4th-highest scoring defender in SuperCoach (total points). I’m projecting a return to those lofty heights in 2023. At $500k he’s a bona fide bargain.

Will Day is a classic “eye-test” pick. I’ve always loved Day – I unsuccessfully picked him to break out last preseason – and just couldn’t live with myself if I missed the boat when he inevitably does. His 2022 campaign was underwhelming, but he was severely under-done after a limited preseason and a 25 disposal, 91 SuperCoach point outing in Round 23 looked to me like a harbinger of things to come.

An average of 85 – which I think is reasonable as a low-end projection – gets Day up to $440k, at which point he’s an easy upgrade to a fallen Sinclair/Sicily type. 52% CBAs in Hawthorn’s practice game is an indicator that the club sees the star-potential and less than 7% ownership is too enticing for me to resist.

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Elliott Yeo at 52% ownership feels like a massive Anti-Pod opportunity. I know the odds say Yeo probably ends up being a must-have, but he’s also played just 27 games in three seasons. My gut tells me Yeo isn’t the player he used to be, and, if he is, I can easily flick Day to him prior to Round 3.

Jones seems to have a decent role and is a walk-up starter in the Bulldogs’ 22. I’m not expecting him to light the world on fire, but all he needs to do is make $150k and provide consistent 60-70s. If his practice game form is anything to go by (101 SC points, plucking everything in his vicinity), those are reasonable expectations.

Rookies are all placeholders pending Thursday teams. I’m on the record with my Connor McKenna love affair – he needs to be in every team if he’s named on Thursday. I don’t trust the two Carlton guys, Cowan and Cincotta; there’s too much competition to make that side. I’d prefer to go elsewhere if possible. Ginbey comes with huge wraps, Wilmot was exciting at the end of last season and Constable seems to have a SuperCoach-friendly role.

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Midfielders

R. Laird ADE $703,900

M. Bontempelli WBD $639,500

J. Steele STK $604,400

T. Green GWS $534,600

J. Hopper RIC $332,000

F. Callaghan GWS $244,000

W. Ashcroft BRL $202,800

W. Phillips NTH $158,300

(J. Bytel STK $158,600, O. Baker WBD $123,900, A. Davey ESS | FWD $117,300)

Laird vs. Oliver has been a big sticking point for me all preseason. Laird gets the slight nod (at this stage) purely because whatever the Dees were doing with their midfield structures in the practice games gave me the heebie-jeebies. Playing your premier midfielder as a half-back flanker is certainly… a choice.

As with Dawson above, I am slightly nervous picking Crows players. It feels like all their magnets are in the air at the moment. Laird’s body of work is unassailable, though. I won’t rehash last year’s stats, but they were ridiculous.

He’s consistent, he wins his own ball, he tackles, he does the dirty work, he’s a star. All things considered I’m happy to pay the elevated price tag to have a guy who can wear the captain’s armband every week if needed, and at worst is going to give you a 110 score.

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We’ve discussed Bont ad nauseum on the podcast this preseason. For me, it’s as simple as No Dunkley = More Bont. The Dogs need him deep in the midfield and Rory Lobb gives them enough variety in the forward line that we’re not going to see Bont leading out of the goalsquare anywhere near as often as we did last year. Despite playing a variety of roles in recent times, Bont hasn’t averaged less than 114 since 2019, peaking at nearly 120 in 2021. He’s a beast. Don’t overthink it.

After averaging 122.5 in 2020 and 126 in 2021, Steele came back to earth with 110 in 2022. To me he looked to be carrying injuries for most of the year. Given he attended 88% of CBAs and racked up 9 tackles in St Kilda’s practice game, to say I’m shocked that Steele’s ownership is just 12.7% is an understatement.

This guy is a proven scorer, already a favourite of Ross Lyon (in the Lenny Hayes mould) and is going to be carrying an enormous midfield load given the Saints’ injury woes. Another 120+ season is a distinct possibility.

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Tom Green is sitting at 33% ownership, which scares me. He feels like a guy that carries a POD risk-profile without the benefit of actually being a POD. That being said, it’s hard to have a more impressive preseason than he has. We all heard about the 50 touches in the internal trial, but it was great to see him back that up with a 130 in GWS’ practice game.

It’s also worth noting that from Rounds 1 to 8 in 2022 he averaged 116, before falling off in conjunction with the Giants as a whole. The Giants play Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon, Hawthorn and Carlton in their first 5, which is as good as it gets from a draw perspective. I think I need to suck up my reticence and lock him in.

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Most SuperCoaches worth their salt (46% of them) have Hopper at the time of writing. I don’t expect him to be a midfield keeper, but at that price his ceiling and potential for quick-cash is hard to ignore. An average of 97 in 2021 is more than enough evidence of that.

After a breakout performance in GWS’ practice game, Callaghan is another one that I find a little bit disconcerting at nearly 20% ownership. A full-time wing role at GWS is always scary (see: Josh Kelly), but the former number 2 draft pick looks poised to make it his own. At that price this feels like a bit of a free hit, with significant upside if he actually is as good as advertised.

Ashcroft hasn’t budged from my team and probably won’t for much of this year. Phillips has big wraps on him after an illness/injury-affected start to his career. Bytel, Baker and Davey are all in pending teams. I like Baker’s role and Davey is going to get some opportunities early doors at the Dons.

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Rucks

S. Darcy FRE $562,200

R. Marshall STK $506,500

(N. Madden GWS | FWD $102,400)

Not a lot to discuss here. Marshall is in over 50% of teams – he’s a must-have.

Darcy is a bit more interesting at 14%. No other Rucks are in more than 19% of teams, and he’s below Cameron and English in terms of ownership. I think Darcy is slightly underpriced at $562k (which prices him at an average of 86). Cameron is a few bad games away from losing his spot to Mason Cox and English’s body can’t be trusted.

The obvious risk here is the Luke Jackson situation, but the Dockers are on the record with their intention to play him primarily forward. Jarrod Witts is the other major option for me here. The $43k price difference is just enough to put me off. Again, I just can’t see Witts averaging that much more than Darcy that it’ll hurt me not to have him.

I’m happy to roll the dice with Big Shrek, safe in the knowledge that no other ruck is going to kill me by missing out on them.

Madden is a perfect R3 option given his Fwd eligibility and the ridiculous number of Sunday afternoon games the Giants have in the opening rounds.

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Forwards

J. Dunkley BRL | MID $596,400

C.Rozee PTA | MID $513,800

T. Taranto RIC | MID $503,100

E. Gulden SYD | MID $472,000

H. Sheezel NTH $198,300

L. Pedlar ADE $173,400

(E. Ratugolea GEE | RUC $174,000, B. Drury NTH | MID $102,400)

Given the number of risks I’m taking in other lines, the Forwards feel like the right place to come back to the pack.

Dunks might be the biggest SuperCoach lock in history. If you don’t currently own him, please a) give yourself an uppercut and b) get him in.

Rozee (if you believe Kane Cornes at least) has superstar potential and is drastically underpriced given his ceiling (three 150+ outings in 2022). Please don’t expect tons every week, but the totality of his season should shake out to be in the top 6 in this line.

Taranto is in 56% of teams. While the idea of Anti-PODing him is somewhat appealing, he’s just too good of a player to ignore. Richmond’s midfield is aging and by all reports they see the Tarantula as their future.

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Errol wasn’t in my calculations, to be honest, until he lit up Carlton in one of the great preseason performances of all time, racking up 45 possies and 3 goals. While you can’t put all your eggs in the preseason basket, some games are just impossible to ignore.

Errol’s upside is enormous and he’s one of those guys that’s just enjoyable to watch play footy. I’m happy to take a slight risk on him, noting that he’s now in 35% (!!) of teams.

Like most Errol owners, Coniglio was the guy to make way in my team to get him in. I expect Cogs to be in the 5-10 range of forwards by the end of the year, but there are enough question-marks over his role that I’m happy to let him slip by for the moment.

Sheezel is going to have some really poor scoring days, but his upside is decent and his job security appears to be good. Pedlar has had a good preseason in Adelaide and at that slightly elevated price tag, if I do need to change him it’s easily done. Ratugolea can rotate with Madden.

Drury is a placeholder, but I’d love a Mid eligible player at F8 who can rotate with my M8/9.

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