Data analysis: Fixtures and structures, Round 16


<p>We have made it through the byes and are into the home stretch. It is now time to nail our last couple of trades and pray to the fantasy gods for no more injuries!</p>



<p>To help with your decisions and planning, I will take a look at the strength of schedule for each team’s run home. I’ll also take a look at some ownership data so that you can check in on how your team stacks up versus the consensus top 1,000 team.</p>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Strength of Schedule</strong></h2>



<p>The below table shows the average number of SuperCoach points that each team’s opponent has conceded for the upcoming games and each team’s average score and conceded amount.</p>



<ul><li>We can see that Gold Coast has the easiest schedule with 1,699 average points allowed and that Melbourne has the hardest schedule at 1,600 points.</li><li>North Melbourne is the easiest matchup (no surprises there!) – conceding a whopping 1,836 points on average. Somewhat surprisingly, Carlton has been the toughest matchup with a stingy 1,548 points conceded on average.</li></ul>



<p>Now this doesn’t mean that Touk Miller is going to average 140 and Clayton Oliver is going to average 75 – but could help tip you either way on some of those borderline decisions.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="1024" src="http://13.210.220.211/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-1024x1024.png" alt="" class="wp-image-1962905" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-1024x1024.png 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-300x300.png 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-150x150.png 150w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-768x768.png 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge-640x640.png 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Captains-challenge.png 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<ul><li>The Suns have it easy (hello first finals appearance?) – Look at getting T. Miller in if you don’t have him and it’s another reason for Witts as your Preuss / English replacement.</li><li>Richmond has an easy schedule too – enough of a reason to hold onto Short?</li><li>Based on recent form and the run home I would also like to get Laird or Mills into my side – although I imagine not many would have the cash or trades.</li><li>The Bulldogs have the 3<sup>rd</sup> toughest schedule – I might not trade in another bulldog if I already have four or five of them.</li><li>GWS have a hard schedule too – This suggests getting rid of Preuss and avoiding the likes of Taranto or Kelly. I think you have to hang onto Coniglio based on recent form.</li></ul>



<p>There are plenty more examples so take what you need from below and also consider this with your captain choices each week.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Team Name</strong></td><td><strong>16</strong></td><td><strong>17</strong></td><td><strong>18</strong></td><td><strong>19</strong></td><td><strong>20</strong></td><td><strong>21</strong></td><td><strong>22</strong></td><td><strong>23</strong></td><td><strong>Total</strong></td><td></td><td><strong>Avg. Scored</strong></td><td><strong>Avg. Allowed</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Gold Coast Suns</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,699</td><td></td><td>1612</td><td>1689</td></tr><tr><td>Richmond</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,689</td><td></td><td>1651</td><td>1648</td></tr><tr><td>Hawthorn</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,684</td><td></td><td>1549</td><td>1751</td></tr><tr><td>Adelaide Crows</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,674</td><td></td><td>1636</td><td>1665</td></tr><tr><td>North Melbourne</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,668</td><td></td><td>1465</td><td>1836</td></tr><tr><td>Sydney Swans</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,657</td><td></td><td>1673</td><td>1627</td></tr><tr><td>Geelong Cats</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,656</td><td></td><td>1689</td><td>1611</td></tr><tr><td>Essendon</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,656</td><td></td><td>1606</td><td>1694</td></tr><tr><td>Collingwood</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,836</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,653</td><td></td><td>1640</td><td>1660</td></tr><tr><td>Carlton</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,647</td><td></td><td>1753</td><td>1548</td></tr><tr><td>West Coast</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,639</td><td></td><td>1489</td><td>1805</td></tr><tr><td>St Kilda</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,635</td><td></td><td>1672</td><td>1628</td></tr><tr><td>Fremantle</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,805</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,635</td><td></td><td>1725</td><td>1576</td></tr><tr><td>Port Adelaide</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,634</td><td></td><td>1724</td><td>1576</td></tr><tr><td>Brisbane Lions</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,689</td><td>1,648</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,625</td><td></td><td>1705</td><td>1587</td></tr><tr><td>Western Bulldogs</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,628</td><td>1,594</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,626</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,625</td><td></td><td>1724</td><td>1575</td></tr><tr><td>GWS Giants</td><td>1,751</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,627</td><td>1,694</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,617</td><td></td><td>1673</td><td>1626</td></tr><tr><td>Melbourne</td><td>1,665</td><td>1,611</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,575</td><td>1,576</td><td>1,660</td><td>1,548</td><td>1,587</td><td>1,600</td><td></td><td>1707</td><td>1594</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Generic Top 1,000 “Why doesn’t my team look like this” Team</strong></h2>



<p>We look to have just about gone full premium. How coaches have dealt with the ruck crisis looks like it will be a key decider on the run home.</p>



<ul><li>The first few changes are fairly straightforward:<ul><li>Last midfield premium position filled by Laird.</li></ul><ul><li>Bontempelli into the forward line.</li></ul><ul><li>Shuffling of rookies see’s McCartin, Rosas and C. Stephens cashed in.</li></ul></li><li>We then see a variety of approaches for the ruck line:<ul><li>English has largely been held and is still in 70% of the top 1,000 teams.</li></ul><ul><li>90% of the top 1,000 now have Witts.</li></ul><ul><li>Cover for English has been spread fairly evenly across D. Cameron (36%), S. Darcy (35%) and L. Jackson (29%).</li></ul></li><li>There are also a few good players outside the consensus team if you are looking for a relative point of difference – J. Dawson (32% owned), C. Mills (33%) and S. Walsh (32%).</li></ul>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Consensus Top 1000 Team</strong></td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td><td></td><td></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>James Sicily</td><td>115</td><td></td><td>Lachie Neale</td><td>129</td></tr><tr><td>George Hewett</td><td>114</td><td></td><td>Clayton Oliver</td><td>128</td></tr><tr><td>Sam Docherty</td><td>112</td><td></td><td>Rory Laird</td><td>124</td></tr><tr><td>Jack Sinclair</td><td>110</td><td></td><td>Jack Macrae</td><td>122</td></tr><tr><td>Jack Crisp</td><td>104</td><td></td><td>Touk Miller</td><td>115</td></tr><tr><td>Jayden Short</td><td>103</td><td></td><td>Andrew Brayshaw</td><td>113</td></tr><tr><td>Jacob Wehr</td><td>62</td><td></td><td>Patrick Cripps</td><td>112</td></tr><tr><td>Massimo D&#8217;Ambrosio</td><td>52</td><td></td><td>Christian Petracca</td><td>106</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Greg Clark</td><td>65</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Cooper Hamilton</td><td>61</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>Mitch Owens</td><td>39</td></tr><tr><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td><td></td><td></td><td><strong>Avg</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Tim English</td><td>120</td><td></td><td>Jarrod Witts</td><td>118</td></tr><tr><td>Marcus Bontempelli</td><td>113</td><td></td><td>Sean Darcy</td><td>103</td></tr><tr><td>Josh Dunkley</td><td>112</td><td></td><td>Brynn Teakle</td><td>30</td></tr><tr><td>Will Brodie</td><td>107</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Luke Parker</td><td>104</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Stephen Coniglio</td><td>101</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Maurice Rioli</td><td>52</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Judson Clarke</td><td>45</td><td></td><td></td><td></td></tr></tbody></table></figure>


Data analysis: Fixtures and structures, Round 16

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